The Gaza Conundrum

Let’s agree that it is unlikely that the Gaza Strip will ever become “the Riviera of the Middle East,” at least not in our lifetimes. But let’s also agree that none of us has any idea what Donald Trump might accomplish in Gaza in the aftermath of his improbable commitment for the United States to assume control over the war-battered region, move its residents to neighboring Arab countries and oversee a massive rebuilding of the area into a prosperous multi-national development.

The president’s critics immediately disparaged the forced displacement of almost 2 million Palestinians as ethnic cleansing and dismissed the concept as logistically impossible. Arab leaders also strongly objected to the plan, making it clear that they would not host such a large number of refugees and would consider the relocation to be a violation of international law. The leaders of Jordan and Egypt, the two countries that Trump specifically mentioned as possible destinations, reacted nervously, recognizing both the domestic havoc that such a refugee influx would create and the realities of opposing Trump on such a high-stakes matter given the immense amounts of American financial assistance that both receive each year.

But Trump’s supporters responded just as quickly and aggressively. While few of the president’s backers have argued that the removal and reconstruction that he described will actually happen, many of them have made the case that Trump’s seemingly outlandish proposal could open the way to an equally favorable but more realistic outcome. Israeli conservatives praised Trump for his boldness and used his declaration to pressure Benjamin Netanyahu to exhibit similar aggressiveness by reclaiming the territory for Israel. In this country, the focus turned to whether Trump could pressure Jordan and Egypt into accepting the displaced Gazans.

So all eyes were on Jordan’s King Abdullah II last week, when he became the first Arab head of state to visit the White House since Trump’s return to office. The king walked a delicate line while in Washington, reiterating his opposition to Trump’s proposal in an online statement while remaining much more circumspect during their joint press availability. Abdullah’s humanitarian offer to take in 2,000 wounded or ill Palestinian children appeared to buy him some goodwill with Trump, but he was unable to get the president to back down during their private meeting. While Trump did not repeat his earlier threat to withhold military and economic aid if Jordan doesn’t cooperate, there is also no indication that he has rethought his position.

But while Abdullah was tap-dancing through his time with Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has been taking another approach. Sisi has refused to meet with Trump if the agenda includes Trump’s relocation plan and sent his foreign minister to Washington in his place to buy him some time. Sisi has instead been aggressively reaching out to other Arab leaders about the possibility of them funding the Gaza rebuilding effort rather than the Americans. Sisi is well aware of Trump’s enthusiasm for saving money and he calculates that a pan-Arab reconstruction would not only be a huge cost-saver for the U.S. but also relieve Trump of the potential need to deploy troops to the volatile region.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio may have been sending a message to the Arab world last weekend, when he acknowledged that Arab states “don’t like” the Trump Gaza plan. “Now, if someone has a better plan – and we hope they do,” he went on, “now’s the time to present it.”

It’s entirely possible that this is what Trump had in mind all along, and that he thought he could goad the Arab world into stepping up in order to block what they saw as a far more unacceptable American stewardship. Or maybe the president was just bored talking about his plans to purchase Greenland and invade Panama, and he was just making noise to see what type of reaction he would receive. We simply don’t know. But watching Egypt’s next steps in the weeks ahead may finally give us a sense of what post-war Gaza might become.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.