Donald Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize. And he may have decided that Benjamin Netanyahu can make that happen for him.
Trump regards the Nobel Prize as the ultimate validation of his presidency. He believes that he deserves it, and he is fashioning his foreign policy agenda to allow him to make that case even more forcefully.
He also understands that Americans are tired of war. Even though our own young men and women are not fighting in either Ukraine or Gaza, growing numbers of U.S. voters are both skeptical of the relevance of these two conflicts to this country’s core interests and wary about the growing cost of supporting our allies given the brewing economic storms here.
While Trump has been effective in stoking these concerns, he did not create them. But the combination of the short-term political gain and the enduring historical prestige has made Trump extremely motivated. He wants a peace deal – somewhere – and he wants it fast. The question is where he gets it.
The combination of the short-term political gain and the enduring historical prestige has made Trump extremely motivated. He wants a peace deal – somewhere – and he wants it fast. The question is where he gets it.
During the campaign, he promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine on his first day in office. That ambitious goal has not been realized, and given the lack of cooperation he has received from both countries’ leaders, that peace still appears to be a more distant goal.
The additional challenge for Trump is that what seems to be his preferred path toward peace — which involves capitulating to Putin and giving the Russians all or most of what they want — is unlikely to help him achieve his personal goals. Abandoning a democratic ally in Ukraine is not the pathway to a Nobel Prize, nor is essentially leaving Europe to fend for itself as Putin ponders further expansion.
Trump’s preferred path to Middle East peace is much clearer than in Eastern Europe, as evidenced by his repeated threats that there will be “hell to pay” for Hamas if they do not release the remaining hostages. But his long-time support for Israel creates a challenge for Trump in this fight too, as the terrorists have little incentive to trust him or his negotiators. Israel’s leaders march in lockstep with this American president only slightly more than they did for his predecessor: Benjamin Netanyahu’s domestic political challenges have made him unenthusiastic about accepting American-endorsed middle ground.
But Trump has an ace in his pocket here that Netanyahu lacks: the overwhelming support of Israeli voters. Trump’s favorability ratings in Israel have skyrocketed to off-the-charts highs, which makes his advisors much more confident about his ability to lean on Israel’s leaders. If he chose to deploy some portion of his political capital to pressure Netanyahu or his successor toward uncomfortable concessions to end the war, they would find that type of strong-armed persuasion very difficult to resist.
But simply ending the violence between Hamas and Israel will not be enough to get Trump to his goal. Many presidents in the past have been able to temporarily stop the fighting between Israel and Palestinian terrorists, only to watch the violence erupt again after a short respite. What Trump needs is a much bigger deal, something of the scope of the Camp David Accords between Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat that fundamentally remade the Middle East almost half a century ago.
That requires normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Since the Saudis desire a Palestinian state as the price for their sign-off, Israel’s leaders will be facing immense Trumpian coercion to make undesirable concessions. Saudi Arabia may not insist on a formal flag-raising over Ramallah. There is evidence that they may settle for less concrete progress toward that goal, especially if Israel mounts an aerial military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But there will need to be some movement, both rhetorical and substantive, toward a two-state solution for a broader treaty to be forged. That won’t be easy for Israel, but it might end up happening anyway.
Trump wants a Nobel Prize. He’s not going to get it in Ukraine. Hamas has little incentive to help him in Gaza. Israel’s leaders may have little choice.
Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.
