Trump and the Hostages

The International Criminal Court has now made what seems to be their best effort to be even-handed in their administration of what they seem to consider justice. When they issued arrest warrants last week for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant, they also issued a warrant against Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif. The Court’s prosecutor had previously sought similar action against Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

However, since both Deif and Sinwar are dead and therefore beyond the ICC’s jurisdiction, the court’s rhetorical posturing against the two terrorists was entirely meaningless. (The court didn’t bother issuing a warrant against Sinwar.)  Which means that while two of Israel’s most senior leaders stand accused of war crimes, no corresponding charges have been brought against a single living member of the terrorist organization that invaded the Jewish state last October and murdered more than 1,200 of its people. 

The practical impact of the warrants will be to keep the Israeli leader from traveling to some of the ICC’s member countries without risking arrest. It also reinforces the growing condemnation of Israel from the international community. The day before the ICC’s ruling, the United States vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for a Gaza ceasefire that did not bother to also require the release of more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages. The same day as the U.N. resolution, the U.S. Senate defeated efforts by Senator Bernie Sanders to block weapons sales to Israel. While Sanders’ bill was overwhelmingly defeated, it received support from more than one-third of the Senate’s Democratic members, perhaps offering a cautionary note to increased challenges for Israel’s supporters after Joe Biden leaves office in January. In barely 24 hours time, the Jewish state received difficult and bracing reminders on three separate fronts about the obstacles they will face going forward. 

Biden strongly criticized the Court for its “outrageous” action, condemning the prosecutors for attempting to establish a false equivalence between Israel’s and Hamas’ actions over the last 13 months. But even Biden’s strongest supporters admit that it’s unlikely that the outgoing president will follow up on his tough language with equally forceful action in the weeks left in his term.

Biden is certainly willing to buck international disapproval. But Donald Trump thrives on it. The ICC decision could end up being sufficient motivation for Trump to engage more strenuously on Israel’s behalf after taking office, especially to attempt to force a release of the remaining hostages. The incoming president has made it clear to Netanyahu that he wants the war over by the time he takes office on January 20, which suggested that if Netanyahu had not concluded military options by then, Trump might force his hands on less favorable terms than Israel would prefer. But as frustrated as Trump might be with Netanyahu, his hostility toward multi-national organizations like the ICC is much greater. It’s not difficult to see the arrest warrants driving the two men closer together. (If anything, Trump may appreciate the symbiosis between two leaders who both believe they have been the victims of an overreaching judiciary.)

It was reported last week that when Israeli President Isaac Herzog made a congratulatory call to Trump after the election, he learned that Trump believed that most of the hostages were dead. After Herzog informed Trump that Israeli intelligence believes that half of them are still alive, Trump became much more engaged in the conversation. 

“You have to save the hostages,” Herzog told Trump.

The combination of the ICC’s wrong-headed ruling and Herzog’s clever appeal might just provoke Trump to force both Netanyahu and Hamas’ leaders to an agreement that has eluded Biden. 

This is just the type of dramatic gesture that has always appealed to Trump. His innate impatience has frequently undermined his efforts at diplomacy. But as someone whose cultural sensibilities were formed in the late 20th century, the idea of freeing captives held by a hostile Middle Eastern regime is likely to resonate with him. The combination of the ICC’s wrong-headed ruling and Herzog’s clever appeal might just provoke him to force both Netanyahu and Hamas’ leaders to an agreement that has eluded Biden. On this unfriendly global landscape, the ICC may have unintentionally done Netanyahu a favor.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.