For roughly half a century, Jewish-American participation in this country’s politics has been defined by essentially two issues: Israel and abortion. Both Middle Eastern geopolitics and domestic U.S. social and cultural issues had been of significant importance to Jewish voters for many years previously, but the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision in January of 1973 and the Yom Kippur War between Israel and coalition of Arab states nine months later introduced a new era in how American Jews cast their ballots in U.S. elections.
But never have those two issues played such a dominant role in a presidential election as both are poised to do in this year’s campaign. As Joe Biden and Donald Trump continue to push forward in what will be the longest general election campaign in our history (featuring the two oldest and the two least-liked candidates of all time to boot), there is no shortage of issues that both will attempt to use to their benefit. But it is only slightly oversimplifying an exceedingly complicated race to say that one or both of these two matters will determine the election’s outcome.
If Biden defeats Trump, it will be because of abortion. If the president is beaten by his predecessor, it will be a direct result of the events that have roiled Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
Let’s start with American politics. Large majorities of Jewish voters in this country have always leaned Democratic, primarily on the basis of preferring a more liberal path on a range of social and cultural issues, from civil rights to gun control to same-sex marriage. But no matter of public policy has catalyzed domestic political engagement more than the issue of abortion rights. When Republicans have argued over the years that their more aggressive support of Israel should earn them more support from Jewish voters, they often learn that many American Jews place a higher priority on these domestic policy matters than on Middle Eastern concerns.
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe two years ago, Democrats have leveraged the threat of a ban on legal abortions into an extremely effective motivational tool to motivate their most loyal supporters, The majority of American Jews are among those Democratic base voters who have rallied on behalf of reproductive rights, first in the 2022 midterm elections and then in several statewide ballot initiatives around the country. Despite the large numbers of progressive voters who remain uninspired by Biden, the abortion issue (along with distaste for Trump himself) is by far the most effective way for the president to excite his party base. If he is reelected in November, voter support for legal abortion will be the chief reason.
As we are all painfully aware, the broad bipartisan support for Israel that characterized most of the first several decades of the Jewish state’s modern existence is no more.
The question of Israel and its future has disrupted the political landscape in a much less expected fashion. As we are all painfully aware, the broad bipartisan support for Israel that characterized most of the first several decades of the Jewish state’s modern existence is no more. And while nationalists on the extreme right pose an increasingly menacing antisemitic threat, it is the anger from the far left toward Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 massacre that has the potential to upend this election.
Biden had already been facing significant unrest from his party’s base on issues such as climate change, police reform and student loans long before the Hamas attack. But Gaza has become a catalyst for progressive dissatisfaction on any number of foreign and domestic policy matters. Most of these voters would never dream of casting a ballot for Trump, but their willingness to support a third party candidate or sit home altogether represents what may be the greatest danger to Biden’s reelection hopes. The White House would like nothing more than to have Gaza off the front pages before November, but their continuing difficulty in achieving even a temporary ceasefire and the rapidly changing hostilities between Israel and Iran suggest the immense difficulties in achieving that goal.
Abortion is the issue that can reelect Biden. Israel is the issue that can defeat him. It’s no more complicated than that.
Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.
