Israel File Appendix: Early August Polls

The early August polls continue the July trends. Likud is the largest party with just over 30 projected seats. Yesh Atid is the second largest party, but is trailing Likud. Yamina is the fast surging party, with an average of more than 13 seats.

What does this tell us?

1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can still form a coalition with the base of right-religious parties. The price will be high. The race will be tight.
2. Yamina no longer has a reason to join a Netanyahu coalition. New elections are good for the party.
3. Blue and White is still losing. Some pundits believe that come election day, Blue and White will have disappeared.

The graph below shows how Yamina has surged in the polls since election day. This is not because of annexation, or other settlement related issues. This is about the coronavirus. Yamina’s leader, Naftali Bennet, keeps hammering the government’s incompetence when it comes to dealing with the virus. As a result, he has become the go-to guy for many rightwing voters who’d never consider voting for a center-left party but admit that Likud does not deserve their vote. In other words, when you wonder how the right can keep its advantage when Likud does so purely as a governing party, Bennet is the answer.

This post is part of The Israel File, our new Sunday newsletter that summarizes everything you need to know about the last week and the coming week in Israel.