One can marvel at Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ability to skillfully maneuver his party. A couple of weeks ago, he convinced his party to have a primary election in February – thus making any prospect of real competition unrealistic. And indeed, no one wanted to run against him next month. Yesterday the Likud court canceled the primaries. Netanyahu was declared the winner. He will be the party's candidate in the next election and its leader following the elections. In theory – if this government and the next one complete full terms in office (something that rarely happens in Israel), and if Netanyahu will be the winner in the next election – it could mean that Netanyahu just secured his job until 2023.
So the prime minister has proved, yet again, that his political skills are second to none. That’s a good thing: A prime minister who cannot manage the political system ends his career like Ehud Barak (Barak survived as PM for barely a year and a half). A prime minister who is tired of maneuvering the political system ends his career like Menachem Begin (Begin retired during his term as PM).
Netanyahu, it appears, still has an appetite for power. And he also has the necessary political skills.
Netanyahu also has an agenda, and he has positions on many issues. It seems that most of the Israeli public prefers his agenda to that of his rivals; otherwise, Netanyahu wouldn’t have been elected again and again. The heads of the opposition can continue to howl, or crack jokes, about Netanyahu’s one-man rule over his own party and over Israel’s political agenda. Howls and jokes are weapons of the weak.
Surely, there is something quite comical about Netanyahu’s splendid loneliness at the top. Beyond that, there is also something worrying about this splendid loneliness. Leaders wear themselves out during their rule. Leaders develop a tendency to abuse their power. Leaders lose creative energy. They get tired; they make others tired. In the US, in the middle of the last century, the constitution was amended so that no President could serve for more than two terms. This happened after FDR was elected for the fourth time, died, and was succeeded by his VP Harry Truman. That was a worthy amendment, a healthy one. Whoever saw President Obama’s State of the Union address the other day could notice the accumulated fatigue. Obama will go home a year from now, and he seems to be getting himself ready to go home. Then America will be blessed with a new President. And a few weeks after it is blessed with a new President, an old friend will pay a visit: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
It would be complicated to legislate a term-limit law in Israel. Our coalition-based parliamentary system is not compatible with such a law, because in Israeli leaders are not elected personally – the voters elect parties, the parties form coalitions, the coalitions vote for governments. Thus, Netanyahu will only be replaced when he loses an election, primary or general, or if he gets too tired to run. But who will replace him? It isn’t a secret that Israel suffers from a lack of candidates for the PM position. It has been years since the opposition has put forward any political figure who could beat him. Fifteen years ago the opposition put forth Amram Mitzna against Ariel Sharon. He never stood a chance. Five years ago it put forth Shelly Yacimovich against Netanyahu. She never stood a chance. In the last round of elections Yitzhak Herzog tried his luck. At no point during the campaign did he have a realistic coalition without Netanyahu.
It appears that the opposition will have a tough time beating Netanyahu. Maybe it lacks the right candidate, but it is more likely that it lacks the right worldview. Netanyahu keeps winning, among other things, because the public agrees with him – as odd as that might sound to his political opponents, in Israel and abroad. That is why the lack of attractive opposition candidates is not the interesting story when it comes to the state of Israeli leadership. The interesting story concerns the lack of viable options from within the coalition: Israel, if it continues believing what it believes today, won’t eventually replace Netanyahu with an anti-Netanyahu, it will replace him with a new-Netanyahu. A newer model. A fresher model. With a similar political worldview.
A country that does not have an alternative leadership has a problem. A country that does not have a young, experienced, ambitious, skilled, responsible cast of leaders in waiting has a problem. Even those who support Netanyahu’s positions, even those who think Netanyahu is a reasonable (or even good) prime minister should acknowledge that his unchallenged leadership is a problem.
Even the Prime Minister’s voters, the voters of the right, those who believe in his way, should try and find ways to solve this problem. That is, because no one else is going to solve it for them. You cannot blame Netanyahu for not having any worthy political rivals. You cannot expect Netanyahu to find himself a worthy successor. If you are a reader of history you know: that is a mission that greater leaders than Netanyahu have failed at. That is a mission for the people.
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