Whenever a political subject appears too complex or speculative, think of one word: survival.
Whether or when President Trump will attack Iran is one of those agonizing and speculative questions that has much of the world on edge. The stakes are enormous. I’ve read reports that an attack may come any day, and other reports that a nuclear deal that will prevent war is achievable.
But the truth is, no one really knows, and that probably includes Trump himself.
So, given that it’s all a guessing game at this point, we can fall back on something that is not speculative: the primordial human instinct of survival.
Iran’s brutal theocratic leadership wants to survive. That comes first, even if it means mowing down thousands of its citizens who have the power of a voice but not of a gun.
The problem for the mullahs is that they have a shattered economy. As military and political expert Zvi Bar’el writes, “Iran faces an economic collapse that will endanger its political stability.”
That means it desperately needs money, and the only way to access that money is to make a nuclear deal with Trump.
“Iran needs a quick agreement that will release the tens of billions of dollars frozen in banks around the world, lift the sanctions that are choking its oil exports, open the way for investment and ensure the regime’s continued control,” Bar’el writes.
Sure, Iran is acting tough to preserve its honor, blustering about “sinking America’s ships” and conducting naval exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
But they know Trump is unpredictable and can attack at any time. If Iran is forced to respond and this triggers a broader escalation, no one will be talking about the billions in sanctions relief. They’ll be talking about war.
Even if the regime survives, the economy will be further depressed and mass suffering will approach a breaking point.
Notice how the suffering of the people gets lost when we discuss the cold algebra of regime survival.
For the Iranian people, the primordial interest is not regime survival but regime change. They may not know who and what will replace this murderous leadership, but they’ve already calculated that it can’t get much worse.
And what does Trump want? Above all, anything that will make him look good.
In his mind, what makes him look good is closing deals, especially deals when he comes out looking like a winner. His legacy is also on the line. As Alexander Ward and Michael Gordon write in The Wall Street Journal, “Trump is at a crossroads that could define his legacy: He could sign a deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear program, or launch a war with hard-to-control consequences for the U.S. and the Middle East.”
This is probably good news for the mullahs, because it’s far from clear a military attack that can get messy will give the impatient Trump a quick victory, which is the equivalent of a good deal.
But are the mullahs prepared to compromise on a nuclear deal to give Trump that quick victory? Only if they can preserve their honor.
That’s the bad news for the mullahs. While survival comes first, preserving their honor is a close second.
And what does Israel want? What we’ve all wanted for decades: a more liberal Iran that will shed its theocracy and nuclear program and become an ally rather than Israel’s biggest threat.
That dream has no chance until the free world starts showing a real interest in helping the Iranian people, who have lived under the boots of oppressors since the Islamic revolution of 1979.
Any outcome that keeps these oppressors in power—whether a nuclear deal or a regional war– would be another stinging defeat for Iranians.
That would be all-too familiar.
For the millions of Iranians who have been risking their lives to fight for their freedom, another defeat that sees the regime survive while the world abandons them is all they’ve known.
