The big buzz in the Mideast these days is that a rift has developed between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. A honeymoon relationship that was heralded only a few months ago now looks to be fraying.
What happened?
Where are the good-old days of Trump’s first term when so much was accomplished? From bringing sanctions back on Iran to the Abraham Accords to the “Peace to Prosperity” plan to moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem to recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, Trump and Bibi were squarely in sync, much to Israel’s benefit.
Today, not so much.
According to several press reports citing high-level sources, the relationship between Trump and Bibi “has become strained,” which shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been paying attention.
The signs are everywhere.
Trump is skipping Israel on his visit to the Gulf this week; his administration has been negotiating directly with Iran, Yemen and Hamas; Trump blindsided Bibi by announcing a ceasefire proposal with the Yemeni Houthi terror group; he seems open to a dubious nuclear deal with Iran, one not much different from the one negotiated under Obama that Bibi hated; he has privately complained that Bibi’s expanded operations in Gaza are a “wasted effort because it will make it harder to rebuild”; and, as Reuters reported, Trump is “no longer demanding Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel” as a condition for progress on talks with the U.S.
As if that weren’t enough, Trump’s team didn’t even inform Israelis that American hostage Edan Alexander would be released until after the deal was made with Hamas.
Oh sure, we’re getting all the perfunctory statements about the U.S–Israel relationship being rock solid and that things are honky dory, but who are we kidding? Trump-Bibi 2.0 is as far from Trump-Bibi 1.0 as we can get.
This must be disheartening for a political genius like Netanyahu, who specializes in navigating complex scenarios with differing agendas and always coming out ahead, as he did during Trump’s first term.
The difference now is that his options are severely limited, and political geniuses only thrive when they keep their options opened. The reason for his new predicament is simple: When Bibi made a deal with far-right ideologues to form his coalition and regain power in 2022, his options drastically shrank. Especially on the Palestinian issue, Bibi could no longer make his patented gestures to resolving the conflict to appease the U.S. and move forward on other tracks.
If he tried that now, the ideologues in his cabinet would topple his government. It doesn’t matter if Bibi’s gestures would be a galaxy away from agreeing to a Palestinian state. Ideologues don’t think that way. They’re purists, and so are their supporters. They see annexing the West Bank and Gaza and continuing an indefinite war against Hamas as the kind of ironclad agenda not open to compromise. Any gesture that goes in the other direction is out of the question.
This is problematic for the obvious reason that politics is all about trade-offs and compromises. What is at stake for Bibi and Israel right now is nothing less than sealing a hugely important deal with Saudi Arabia and keeping Trump on Israel’s side for other urgent issues like Iran.
Trump may be erratic and unpredictable and even supportive of Israel, but he’s driven by a primal zeal to make deals and rack up wins. On Gaza, for example, whether you agree with him or not, he sees making a deal to end the war and get the hostages out as a much easier win than Bibi continuing an indefinite war to “destroy Hamas.”
This zeal for deals is true whether Trump is dealing with tariffs, trade, the economy or military conflicts. The problem is that with Bibi 2.0, he’s not seeing many dealmaking possibilities, hence the freelancing behind Bibi’s back. Let’s just admit it: The extremists in Bibi’s coalition have put him in a political straight jacket and accentuated the wedge with Trump.
I’m neither a Bibi hater nor a Bibi lover. I’m a Bibi realist. I see the tough spot he’s in and it pains me that he can’t work his magic to seal a deal with Saudi Arabia, free the remaining hostages while debilitating Hamas and convince Trump to take a much tougher stance on Iran.
At his core, Bibi is neither an ideologue nor a warmonger. He’s a cautious pragmatist. Under his leadership, Israel has decimated the biggest threat to its borders — Hezbollah in the north. Iran has never been weaker. If ever there were a time for Mr. Security to write his signature final chapter for his country, this would be it. Stoic nature aside, this must frustrate him.
But I’ve also learned never to count Bibi out. He knows what he needs to do and what are the best outcomes for Israel. If Israel’s Houdini can figure a way to bring his country back to Trump-Bibi 1.0, it’d be his biggest victory.
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