In the next three months – until March 17, the day of Israel's election – I will try to answer the many questions I receive by mail and on social media in an orderly fashion. Here's the first batch of questions I collected in the last couple of days and my short answers. You can send more questions to rosnersdomain@gmail.com.
On Monday I wrote that “Haredi leaders are in stormy waters when they start flirting with the idea of a left-of-center bloc. They risk losing their right-of-center voters”. A reader asks: aren't haredis supposed to be more moderate on political issues?
Answer: this used to be true, and still is for some factions within the haredi world. But, all in all, the haredis are going through a long process of “Israelization”, part of which manifests itself by many of them adopting hawkish views on foreign affairs (Palestinians, the peace process, etc.). Moreover: with all due respect to the dream of an anti-Bibi coalition that has both the “left” and “haredis” within it – there are many issues that would make such a coalition very fragile. I do not see members of Yesh Atid, Meretz, and Labor rushing to compromise with the haredis on issues such as conversion, the rabbinate, the status of progressive Judaism, and more. So both for haredi voters, and for voters of the center-left, an alliance that would stick these two camps together is going to be very uncomfortable.
Daniel Rubin asked on Twitter: “4 for Livni?”
Answer: take a look at our updated poll trend tracker for most of the numbers. Tzipi Livni's Hatnua party is indeed around four seats in the polls. That means the party might not cross the finish line. Under Israel's new electoral threshold, parties with a prospect of four better not run, because many voters could lose their votes if they vote for them. Thus, the assumption is that Livni will not be running as the head of Hatnua Party but rather as a second-in-command in another party – possibly Labor.
Many readers did not understand, or did not like my loose definition of “mainstream”. Here are several questions and protestations on this matter. First: How can you say Meretz is not “mainstream” while Habayit Hayehudi is mainstream?
I think I can. Meretz is a party that can join very few Israeli coalitions. Habayit Hayehudi is more flexible. Meretz is generally coherent – Habayit Hayehudi is more varied. Surely, the more extreme elements of Habayit are as far from the Israeli mainstream as the members of Meretz, but people like Ministers Bennett and Uri Orbach are well within the Israeli mainstream conversation. Let me put it this way: Bennett and Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid began the term of the outgoing coalition by forming the short-lived alliance of “brothers”. The alliance did not hold for very long, but it was the expression of a genuine instinct of possible kinship. Namely, these very different leaders of very different ideological camps still feel that they are part of the same larger group of modern-western Zionist society.
Why did you not mention Labor in your list of “mainstream” parties?
Two answers: one – I should have. Labor is mainstream. Two – there is one caveat, similar to the caveat I have regarding Habayit Hayehudi. Labor today has a mainstream top leadership and a more radical junior leadership in the Knesset. These two factions of Labor have been working together in harmony thus far, mainly because they have faced very few tests. I'm not sure if they can compromise in a more stressing context of having to govern.
A reader asks: can any of the leaders of smaller parties replace Netanyahu?
Answer: sure, why not? If the party has the votes and the leader can form a coalition of 61 supporters – it can happen. And yet, there are several things to consider. One – the public seems to think that no leader other than Netanyahu is ready for the PM job. In the polls, more than a third of Israelis say that Netanyahu is the proper choice for PM, and next in line is Labor's Herzog with around 15%. That's not much for a real challenger. Two – the voters put the inexperienced Lapid in a position of power in the last round and the result was not impressive. There is more suspicion this time about having inexperienced people in such positions of responsibility. Three – I've yet to see the center-left rallying around one leader that could be the challenger. At the moment, Netanyahu is not facing one formidable challenger, he is facing many small challengers. That is easier to handle.
A few readers asked: will these elections change anything?
Answer: they definitely might change many things. If the next coalition is one of the right plus Haredi parties, its policies will reflect the change. I do not think that this will manifest itself in a major change regarding foreign policy – Israel will still have to face a suspicious world and a very critical US administration that is going to make it hard for Israel to dramatically alter its policies rightward. But such a coalition can change things internally. For example: it would surely change the rules for haredi draft that the current Knesset approved – making them much less strict and more accommodating to haredis. Of course, this will ignite a renewed debate: some would argue that this puts an end to the dream – supported by a vast majority of Jewish Israelis – to see haredis serving their country. Others would argue that the right way to lure haredis into service is by using non-coercive means.
What about the Basic Law of the Jewish nation-state?
I give a detailed answer to this question here. But here's one sentence: “Netanyahu is more familiar with the math than anyone, and more than likely understands that the nation-state bill in its current form is a lost cause. The only remaining question is this: Would he really be upset about not being able to pass the bill? Or is he, in fact, satisfied that he was able to eat the cake (fight for the bill) and still maintain the status quo (saving Israel from having this unnecessary bill).”
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