This story originally appeared at The Media Line.
The signing of the framework agreement to end Iran’s nuclear program is having repercussions throughout the Middle East. In Israel, itself a nuclear power, there is deep skepticism that Iran will comply with the terms of the agreement, and concern that it could provoke a nuclear arms race. In Saudi Arabia, Iran’s traditional rival, there is fear that Iran could become a more important player in the Middle East. In Yemen, there is growing conflict between Iran and other Arab states.
The agreement has exacerbated tensions between Israel and the US, already high after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s March speech to Congress detailing the dangers of an Iran deal. Since the agreement was announced, Netanyahu has hit hard, giving numerous interviews detailing why the agreement with Iran is a bad deal, and saying that does not have to remove one centrifuge, according to the framework agreement.
Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said the deal was a “historic mistake” and an “existential issue” for Israel.
“It’s not that we don’t believe the White House,” the defense minister said in an interview with Channel 2 on the framework agreement. “We don’t believe the Iranians.”
The Obama Administration has hit back hard in a series of interviews. Netanyahu “said that Israel would not dismantle any of its centrifuges, but under the JCPA (acronym for the framework deal) Iran will physically remove about 13,000 centrifuges from where they stand today in Iran’s nuclear facilities.” In addition, President Obama said that he is confident that sanctions against Iran could be re-imposed if Iran violates the agreement.
He also said that the deal keeps Iran at least a year away from a “breakout capacity,” the time it would take to manufacture a nuclear weapon. But he conceded that when the agreement ran out, Iran could quickly build a bomb.
“What is a more relevant fear would be that in Year 13, 14, 15, they have advanced centrifuges that enrich uranium fairly rapidly, and at that point, the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero,” Obama said.
Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes told Israel Television that a US military option remains on the table if Tehran violates the terms of the agreement. But Israeli officials and some analysts are far from convinced.
“There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical,” Emily Landau, the head of the arms control program at the National Institute for Security Studies at Tel Aviv University told The Media Line. “The narrative around the deal says that Iran will freeze and roll back its nuclear program, but in fact it will continue to move forward and continue research. How anyone can say this is a good deal I really don’t know.”
She said there are discrepancies over important issues such as how much access inspectors will have, and how quickly sanctions will be lifted. There is also concern that just as Iran will be subject to inspection, there could be demands for Israel’s nuclear program to be open to inspectors. Israel has long maintained a policy of “nuclear ambiguity”, not officially confirming its nuclear capacity, although foreign reports have said that Israel has up to 200 nuclear bombs.
Landau says there are a lot of holes in the framework agreement, and the US and Iran are offering different versions of the deal. For example, Iran says that all economic sanctions will be lifted as soon as the final deal is sigend, while the White House said the pace of sanctions relief has yet to be negotiated.
Just as concerned as Israel is Saudi Arabia, Iran’s traditional rival in the Middle East.
“The Iran deal is launching a political race not an arms race,” Lina Khatib, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut told The Media Line. “Saudi Arabia is trying to assert itself in the face of Iran so that Riyadh can have greater weight when Iran is accepted back into the international community. The Saudi attack on the Houthis in Yemen is an example of this.”
Saudi Arabia has launched dozens of air strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who had been on the verge of taking over large swaths of the country.
Unlike Israeli analysts however, Khatib believes that Iran will adhere to the terms of any eventual deal.
“By accepting the framework agreement, Iran has raised expectations among its citizens, who are looking forward to the lifting of sanctions so that Iran's economy can recover,” Khatib said. “Iran's leaders cannot risk domestic unrest were the deal to fall apart, so it is unlikely that Iran will continue nuclear enrichment outside of the terms of the agreement.”
