Israel’s New Government: Six Things to Consider

A new government is born. It has the smell of freshness, and the fragility of a newborn, with all the excitement and the apprehension involved. Today, we make history. Today, we celebrate. Even Israelis who oppose the government, if they have good manners, ought to celebrate. Tomorrow the newborn must begin to walk. And as it begins to walk, there are a few things that should be considered. Here are six of the most important:

Bennett is the weakest PM in Israel’s history

He might be a great Prime Minister, or the worst, or just mediocre. For now, what we know about Naftali Bennett is the following: He has very little backing in the parliament, as his party won only seven seats, one of which is in the hands of a member who does not support the coalition. So, Bennett is a PM with six clear supporters, and not the most reliable (as we’ve witnessed during the period of negotiations). Also, he is a PM tied by law and agreements to his ally Yair Lapid, the “alternate Prime Minister”. This basically means that Bennett has no power to make major decisions without Lapid.

If something is too controversial, it’ll have to wait for the next government. And since the coalition includes parties from the far right to the far left, many issues could be controversial.

This is a government by consensus

The ability of the leaders to keep the coalition alive and the government in power depends on one thing: no decision could be beyond the pale of what all the members of the coalition could accept. This means a lot of maintenance, a lot of internal negotiations over decisions, and a lot of caution. In other words, the priorities of the government depend no less on the possibility to have a consensus than on the urgency of an issue. If something is too controversial, it’ll have to wait for the next government. And since the coalition includes parties from the far right to the far left, many issues could be controversial.

Every MK can bring about the end of the coalition

Today (Sunday) an MK from Israel Beiteinu, unhappy with the role assigned to him, threatened to vote as he pleases in the coming weeks, without regard to coalition agreements. Israel Beiteinu is a disciplined party, and yet, here we are, watching the perils of a 61-member coalition, where every MK is king or a queen. Today, it is someone displeased with his role, tomorrow it could be someone displeased with this or that policy, the day after it could be someone wanting to please his political base. If many Israelis believe that this government will be short lived (about a third believe not even until the end of 2021), that’s the reason.

Lieberman is the strongest Finance Minister ever

While outsiders look at Israel’s PM and Foreign Minister, the most powerful member of the incoming government is Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman. This is for two reasons. One, the government is slated to focus on a domestic agenda. Two, Lieberman controls not just the Finance Ministry but also the powerful Knesset Budget Committee. He will be the de-facto financial PM of Israel, with one thing to limit him: the need to make decisions that would get the approval of all 61 members of the coalition.

If Arab Israelis become a power broker in Israel’s politics, by focusing mostly on their domestic concerns, the political map will be transformed.

New chapter in Israeli-Arab politics

This might be the most significant event that is happening today. An Arab Islamist party is joining the coalition as a full member. It is joining a coalition at the head of which sits a PM from the right-religion faction of Israel’s society. It is joining a coalition that intends to invest in the Arab sector in many ways, in an attempt to somewhat normalize Jewish-Arab relations and make the Arab voter a true player in Israel’s game of politics. No grand words would be too grand to mark this event. It could be the beginning of a revolution. It could be the beginning of a completely altered era. If Arab Israelis become a power broker in Israel’s politics, by focusing mostly on their domestic concerns, the political map will be transformed.

Netanyahu is no longer Prime Minister

This morning, as one of my sons wore his uniform and was getting ready to go back to his military base, I asked him if he remembers a prime minister other than Netanyahu. The answer was an obvious no. He is 19, and when Netanyahu was elected, he was seven. My two slightly older boys barely remember Netanyahu’s predecessors. I do, but even for me the sentence “Prime Minister Naftali Bennett” still feels odd. Of course, the question now is “is this the end?” Many prime ministers, including Netanyahu himself, served twice (Ben Gurion, Rabin, Shamir, Peres). None was able to come back a third time. And yet, this is Bibi. Precedents do not always apply to him.