Did Trump and Bibi Lose to a Strait Flush?
“The aim of the operation is to end the threat from the Ayatollah regime in Iran. [It] will continue as long as necessary. … If we don’t stop them now, they will become invulnerable. Their representatives in negotiations are trying to buy time, attempting to gain time in fruitless and deceitful negotiations with our American friends.”
Those were the words of Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu in a recorded message to Israelis on February 28, the evening that the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran. Now, 15 weeks later, Bibi’s American friends are about to sign a deal with the “deceitful” Iranian negotiators, a deal that makes a mockery of Bibi’s promise to “end the threat” of a genocidal regime.
How did things go south so quickly?
A few months ago, we were marveling at how the U.S. and Israel were decimating the Iranian regime and empowering its long-suffering people. I myself wrote back in March that “A weakened Iran is already a victory” and that “No matter what happens going forward, something as earth-shattering as the fall of the Soviet Union has already happened in the Middle East.”
Boy was I wrong.
I got carried away by the tactical military victories and overlooked a strategic weapon in the hands of the mullahs— closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil flows.
That weapon changed the course of the war. Suddenly, in addition to goals like regime change and nuclear disarmament, a new, urgent imperative barged in that became like an ongoing root canal for the impatient Trump.
The confusing, zig-zagging months that followed are immaterial. What matters is where we are today, facing a deal that most Israel supporters consider a royal failure, if not a surrender.
If you had to write a script for a worst-case scenario for Bibi, this reality would come close.
“Netanyahu doesn’t have a lot of choices,” military expert Amos Harel writes. “Not only does it appear that the American-Iranian agreement won’t satisfy even one of the goals he outlined with great self-confidence… Iran is now, once again, establishing a new equation in which any Israeli attack on Beirut will bring an Iranian attack on Israel.”
What makes this failure even more stinging is the emerging rupture between famous besties Trump and Bibi. Their interests have diverged. Trump is tired of the war, the global disruption caused by Hormuz, the political pressure he’s feeling at home, and, perhaps most importantly, the absence of a quick military victory.
Whereas Bibi and Israel have a strategic interest to “end the threat from the Ayatollah regime in Iran” and “continue [the war] as long as necessary,” Trump’s interest is to extricate himself from a jam and claim victory.
“This great deal will bring peace and security to the whole region,” Trump announced with his usual fanfare on Sunday.
It’s a sign of how Hormuz has overtaken the war that Trump made it the focus of his announcement: “With the opening of the strait upon the signing of the deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the region and the world.”
Think about that. A return to the status quo at Hormuz is now considered a “great deal.” Never mind that Iran will no doubt use the Strait as leverage in the future. Regardless of whether you are pro-Bibi or anti-Bibi, this is a disheartening development.
I was reminded of how disheartening when I read Michael Oren’s grand description of the war’s original goals: “By toppling the Iranian regime, dismantling its nuclear program, and eliminating its ballistic missile capabilities and support for terror proxies, the war could bring peace to the entire Middle East,” he wrote in The Free Press.
“Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and perhaps even a post-Ayatollah Iran—all could join the Abraham Accords. A restored Pax Americana would extend from the shores of the Mediterranean to the banks of the Ganges.”
Today, that outcome sounds positively messianic. It is galaxies away from where we find ourselves: settling for the re-opening of Hormuz and beginning 60 days of negotiations over the nuclear issue with wily negotiators who will now get billions in sanctions relief.
Oren still holds out some hope that “the Iranian regime may yet die of the mortal wounds it sustained in this war, and the Iranian people may once again revolt.”
For that revolt to come about, however, Bibi may well need a royal flush.
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