March 2, 2020

Over the last several months, the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination has been characterized as a clash between progressives and moderates, between the party establishment and outsiders, between measured caution and outright rebellion. But on the eve of Super Tuesday, the biggest day on the primary calendar, the race has crystalized even further: the campaign has now come down to a battle between Bernie Sanders… and the Un-Bernies.

As Sanders has established himself as the Democratic front-runner, a growing number of party regulars and a shrinking number of candidates have begun coming to terms with the challenge of derailing his insurgent candidacy. Joe Biden’s landslide victory in last Saturday’s South Carolina primary may not only have saved his campaign but provided him with a burst of momentum to emerge as the most likely obstacle in Sanders’ path. But Biden has stumbled frequently on the campaign trail, and he may lack the financial resources and campaign infrastructure to compete on a national playing field in the weeks ahead.

On the other hand, Michael Bloomberg has virtually unlimited resources and a state-of-the-art organization at his disposal. But his halting performances in the first two debates in which he participated, coupled with deep-seated resistance to his candidacy among many party activists, has led to worries about his viability as well.

But for Democrats who fear that Sanders might be too extreme a candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November, one of these two imperfect messengers represent their last and best hope to derail the Bernie Express as it picks up speed on its way to the party convention in Milwaukee this summer. Pete Buttigieg caused the hearts of party centrists to skip a beat after his unexpected showing in the Iowa caucuses early last month, while Amy Klobuchar gave them a glimmer of hope with her debate performance in New Hampshire a few days later. But Buttigieg withdrew from the race over the weekend, and Klobuchar seems likely to follow him to the sidelines later this week.

Some might wonder whether a more traditional Democrat like Colorado Senator Michael Bennet or Montana Governor Steve Bullock might have served as a workable Un-Bernie candidate. But both of them, as well as a handful of other moderates who entered and exited the race with little notice over the past several months, were unable to capture nearly enough public and media attention to mount plausible campaigns. So now Biden and Bloomberg regard each other warily, each concentrating their fire on Sanders (and Trump), while recognizing that the centrist lane in the nomination race is still not clear for them.

(Senator Elizabeth Warren still remain a candidate too, of course, and an exceptionally well-funded one at that. But until she demonstrates an ability to improve on her lackluster performance in the first four caucus and primary states, it’s unclear as to her potential impact on the race. As a self-declared “unity” candidate attempting to bridge the gap between the two wings of the party, it’s also difficult to discern which of the leading contenders is helped or hurt by her presence in the field.)

To be fair, there is still no undebatable evidence that says that Sanders cannot win a general election campaign. The candidate and his supporters cite numerous public opinion polls that show Sanders beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup. But growing numbers of party leaders and down-ticket candidates are openly worrying that Republican attacks on Sanders’ most ambitious policy proposals could lead to Trump’s re-election and significant GOP gains in Senate and House races.

The Democratic choice here is framed in an eternal political debate about the best strategy for winning a campaign – whether to emphasize persuading undecided voters to join your ranks or to instead concentrate on motivating your most loyal supporters to turn out in the largest numbers possible. Trump won in 2016 by utilizing the latter approach and has governed over the last three years in the same way, by devoting almost all his time and attention to exciting his political base. Sanders talks about accomplishing a similar feat from the left, predicting historic voter participation from young people and minority communities.

Democratic leaders old enough to remember the wipeouts suffered by George McGovern and Walter Mondale dread the type of campaign that Republicans will run against Sanders’ plans for single-payer health care, free college tuition and open borders. Younger activists and insurgents point to the less overwhelming defeats suffered by Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, among others, who ran closer to the political center. This type of argument will never be completely settled –in either party – due to both an extremely small sample size and an extremely large number of external variables.

But it will have to be resolved – if only temporarily — between now and the Democratic convention this summer. Sanders will almost certainly represent one side of the debate. Whether Biden or Bloomberg will take up the other side will be determined in the next few weeks.