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March 14, 2018

Why We Can’t Talk About Trump

I have a dear friend who feels nauseated anytime she hears the word “Trump.” It’s a physical reaction. She feels so disgusted by the man that she’s unable to consider whether he’s capable of doing anything good. Her Trump Derangement Syndrome is rooted in the man’s character flaws — all of the offensive, impulsive and mendacious behavior that has dominated American airwaves for the past two years.

The truth is, we’ve never had a president like Donald Trump. It’s not even close.

In May 2017, I wrote a column quoting historian Max Boot: “The problem with writing about Donald Trump is that the outrages come so fast and furious that it’s hard to keep up.”

My point was that Trump was still mired in the “emotional staples of reality television, the junk food of entertainment, where cat fighting, backstabbing and manufactured drama rule the battle for ratings.”

Having been the star and executive producer of “The Apprentice” for 14 years, Trump couldn’t seem to shake the habits of a world where the greater the chaos, the higher the ratings. “That was the lesson Trump inhaled from reality TV,” I wrote. “Outrage is not just the norm, it’s the key to success.”

This is an issue with conversations in the Trump era — the character flaws of a reality TV star have drowned out rational talk. It’s hard to get past the personal stuff, the craziness, the chaos, which is unrelenting.

Of course, it’s one thing to act like a narcissistic loudmouth when the stakes are television ratings, and quite another when the stakes are the welfare of your nation and the world.

Whereas his old antics might have offended a character or two on his reality show,” I wrote, “today, those same antics could lead to nuclear war …  and other such unpleasant things.”

In fact, for many months after I wrote that, there was talk of Trump’s impulsiveness triggering a nuclear war with North Korea. Even my hairdresser — who never talks politics — asked me if we were headed for a nuclear war.

On the food chain of Trumpian nightmares, a nuclear war takes the crown.

So, you can imagine the cognitive dissonance last week when we got word that North Korean President Kim Jong Un might be interested in negotiating nuclear disarmament. Talk about a reversal: from fear of a nuclear war on Rosh Hashanah to hope for a peace meeting at Passover.

Needless to say, we’re still far from success. As you’ll read in our in-depth analysis by Larry Greenfield in this week’s cover story, there are many complex questions to consider, among them:

“Did the North Korean regime commit to a pre-summit conditional freeze on launching missiles or to a firm promise to negotiate denuclearization of its weapons program, or was the South Korean national security adviser’s representation of Kim Jong Un’s oral offer a bluff?”

“What would a ‘good deal’ look like with an adversary who does not share Western morality? … Even if the regime relinquished its ‘treasured sword,’ the nuclear program it believes guarantees regime survival — would North Korea continue its brutal human rights oppression, illicit global drug activity, supplying of chemical-weapons-production materials to Syria and others, and counterfeiting of currencies?”

“How can we ‘trust but verify’ future inspections of closed reactors and the promised cessation of weapons production and testing, when North Korea has previously cheated on prior framework agreements?”

So yes, it’s complicated, but it’s still far better than the nuclear brinkmanship we had a few months ago. As Greenfield reminds us, Kim Jong Un must have paid attention to Trump’s policy of maximum pressure through “increased sanctions, cyberhacking, freezing of North Korean assets in foreign banks, aggressive military drills led by the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier along with the South Korean navy, stretching from the Yellow Sea to the Sea of Japan, and plenty of bluster (‘rocket man’ on a ‘suicide mission’ who will face ‘fire and fury’).”

Maybe Trump’s unpredictability was just what was needed to get a brutal dictator’s attention. Maybe it takes a coarse bully to scare off another coarse bully. But now that he’s got Kim’s attention, will Trump have the tenacity and patience to follow through? And if he does pull off the ultimate deal, how will Trump haters react?

Talk about a reversal: From fear of a nuclear war on Rosh Hashanah to hope for a peace meeting at Passover.

When I bring up “positive outcomes” with my Trump-hating friend, it makes little difference. Her disgust precludes her from entertaining any positive thoughts about Trump, even a Trump who would pull off a near-miraculous deal to disarm North Korea.

This is an issue with conversations in the Trump era — the character flaws of a reality TV star have drowned out rational talk. It’s hard to get past the personal stuff, the craziness, the chaos, which is unrelenting.

And yet, having said all that, it would still be amazing to see Trump pull off a deal to denuclearize North Korea. And, while he’s at it, it’d be equally amazing if he could renegotiate the Iranian deal that currently allows an evil regime to build nuclear weapons at the end of the agreement.

When the stakes are so high, it’s OK to hope for results, even from a rude and impulsive TV star who craves ratings.

Why We Can’t Talk About Trump Read More »

Israel vs. Palestinians: Mind the Gap

Gallup just published another set of numbers showing that “Americans’ stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is as strongly pro-Israel as at any time in Gallup’s three-decade trend. Sixty-four percent say their sympathies in the dispute lie more with the Israelis, tying the high previously recorded in 2013 and 1991”.

Of course, Gallup is not the only institute to track this trend. Pollsters, for decades, are tracking Israel’s stance vs. (first) the “Arabs” and (later) the “Palestinians”. The numbers vary by year, by pollster, by the exact question, by recent events. But one feature is constant: Israel is always more popular in the US than the Arabs (or Palestinians).

Moreover, looking at the gap between Israel and the other side, we see a trend of a slowly widening gap. Take a look at the graph bellow, that includes all the data we found beginning in 1967. The blue dots are Israel, the black dots are “Arabs” or, in the last three decades, “Palestinians”, the red dots show the gap between the two, and the red line is the trend line for the gap.

So, no reason to worry?

Think again, and look again – here’s what happens when we only track the last 10 years. In this decade the questions are always about Palestinians, and not Arabs, and the trend line is one of a narrowing gap. Israel’s numbers are as high as ever before (in Gallup’s tracking they are higher than ever before). The Palestinians are doing slightly better than they did in the past.

So, reason to worry?

I am not sure there is one. Israel vs. Palestine is not necessarily a zero-sum game. In other words: This is a common survey question, but I am not certain it is a very good survey question. A person can be “more” supportive of Israel and still “supportive” of the Palestinians, and vice-versa. Maybe the “favourability” question is the more revealing. In this question we see that “Israel and the Palestinian Authority have nearly reverse images in the U.S., further underscoring Americans’ partiality for Israel in the Mideast conflict. Currently, 74% of U.S. adults view Israel favourably and 23% view it unfavourably, whereas 21% view the Palestinian Authority favourably and 71% unfavourably”.

Moreover: amid the talk about Israel’s difficulties with Democratic voters it is worth noting that “83% of Republicans, 72% of independents and 64% of Democrats view Israel favourably”. So, even among Democratic voters there is still a solid majority viewing Israel favourably. And while younger Americans are less supportive of Israel than older Americans, as Gallup revealed in February, this is more the result of growing support among older Americans than of declining support among young Americans. “Older Americans have grown especially sympathetic toward Israel, and this shift has happened across the board politically – not solely because of shifts among older Republicans. Meanwhile, independents and Republicans aged 18 to 49 are also leaning more pro-Israel, leaving younger Democrats as the only group whose views have not changed”.

Repeat: “younger Democrats [is] …the only group whose views have not changed”. According to Gallup, neither for better – nor for worse.

Israel vs. Palestinians: Mind the Gap Read More »

Trump Beverly Hills Visit Prompts Protest

About 300 people descended on Beverly Hills on Tuesday to protest against U.S. President Donald Trump, who was in the neighborhood for a fundraiser.

The protest took place at Beverly Gardens Park, at Beverly Drive and Santa Monica Boulevard, beginning around 5 p.m. and concluding at 8 p.m.

A large, inflatable Trump, holding a Ku Klux Klan hood, stood at the southeast edge of the park. Music by rapper Kendrick Lamar played on a loudspeaker, competing with the chants of “No Trump, No KKK, No Fascist USA.”

A couple of women wore pussy hats, which were ubiquitous during the Women’s March. A terrier wore a sign across its body reading, “Dogs Against Trump.”

Terrier against Trump.

Protestors carried signs denouncing the president’s recent decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The signs read, “Jerusalem is the Capital of Palestine. Palestine Will Win!”

A protestor carries a sign denouncing the president’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

 

Janice Batzdorff, a congregant of independent egalitarian community Movable Minyan who carried a sign reading, “Make America Kind Again,” also expressed concern with the president’s decision on Jerusalem.

“I have mixed feelings about it, but I don’t think it is the president’s position unilaterally to make that change,” the North Hollywood-based librarian said.

Batzdorff denounced the president’s stance on “environmental issues; his hatefulness toward immigrants and the way he did not condemn the anti-Jewish sentiment of that march in Charlottesville. And he is going into talks with [North Korean Supreme Leader] Kim Jong-Un without having any experts on Korea in his administration.”

Janice Batzdorff and Pearl Ricci attended the anti-Trump rally together.

Sandy, 83, a retired attorney who declined to provide his last name, held a sign reading, “Dump Trump, Fake President,”

Sandy, who has previously been active with the Jewish Federation, called the president “a disaster for the country, the world and the good people who live here.”

The president’s rhetoric surrounding immigration was disturbing, he said.

“The immigrants who live here are good people,” he said. “We want them here.”

Helen Hoffman, who attends Stephen Wise Temple High Holy Days services, expressed her displeasure with the president, “the as*hole in the White House,” she said. “I can’t say his name because it makes my stomach content rise up to the top.”

Based in the San Fernando Valley, Hoffman turned out with several members of Swing Left, an organization focused on regaining progressive Democratic seats in the 2018 House elections. She said she was hoping to help elect Democrats to represent California’s 25th and 21st districts, which are currently represented by Republicans.

Additional protestors spoke on behalf of labor workers, including members of Teamsters Local 396, a Covina-based union representing UPS, waste and recycling workers.

“The values we hold as Californians are not the same the president holds,” Union spokesperson Adan Alvarez, 30, said.

Dozens of Beverly Hills Police Department (BHPD) officers were on the scene. While a BHPD lieutenant said there were no reports of violent incidents at the protest, Gregg Donovan, a former employee of the Beverly Hills Conference and Visitors Bureau who carried a sign expressing support for the president, said somebody tried to knock his hat off.

“I heard the president was going to be in Beverly Hills and wanted to welcome him,”  Donovan said.

Other than the hat incident, Donovan said the event was peaceful.

“This is the safest place on earth,” he said of Beverly Hills.

A protestor in costume alludes to Trump going to jail one day for his alleged collusion with the Russians to win the White House.

 

 

 

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