September 29, 2015

The nuclear deal with Iran will shortly come into effect and the world powers will lift their economic sanctions on Tehran. For many, this third and final phase of the nuclear agreement represents a moment of hope for the Middle East. Supporters of the pact believe that the sanctions relief will strengthen the moderates in Iran and prevent the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons.

Yet not everyone is as optimistic. The negotiations leading up to the deal focused solely on Iran’s nuclear program without addressing Tehran’s military involvement in countries like Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. With sanctions lifted, many fear that Iran will channel billions of dollars into strengthening its armed proxies in the region. Chief to this concern is Saudi Arabia – Teheran’s longtime rival for supremacy in the Middle East that is currently fighting the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi militias in Yemen.

With the nuclear deal underway and the expected warming of Iran’s ties with the West, a fight over regional dominance between the two powers seems highly probable. While King Salman officially endorsed the nuclear deal in several public statements, Riyadh has been deeply concerned with the agreement’s ramifications on its future stance in the region.

“The main issue for the Saudis is not whether it will keep Iran from getting a bomb, but whether it will open the way to closer US-Iranian relations at the expense of the Saudis,” explains William Hartung, director of the Arms and Security Project at the Center for International Policy. “And Washington has gone all in on the Saudi side in the Yemen war as a way to reassure them, as the nuclear deal moves forward,” he told The Media Line.

Yet, if it feels threatened, Saudi Arabia could go down the nuclear path. Funding is certainly not an issue for the Kingdom, which is the biggest net exporter of oil in the world. “I think that for the moment the Saudis would like to sew uncertainty as to whether they might develop a nuclear weapon. It would be a disastrous development, which among other things might prompt Iran to break out of the just concluded nuclear deal,” Hartung said.

Hussein Ibish, a Senior Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, was more doubtful about the prospects of Saudi Arabia pursuing a nuclear program, but did not rule it out. Ibish told The Media Line that, “The decisions Riyadh makes in the next few years on this issue will depend hugely on the outcome of the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, and on the policy moves by others, especially Iran and the US. They would be willing to go there, ultimately, if they conclude they have no choice.”

Meanwhile, Washington is working hard to reassure Saudi Arabia of what President Obama described as “ironclad support” for the Kingdom. The White House has expedited hundreds of weapon orders that have already been made by Riyadh in recent years. Discussions have also been held regarding a Gulf-wide missile defense system that would be deployed at the behest of the United States. A $1 billion deal for new littoral warships is being finalized these days between Lockheed Martin and the Saudis, as well as the supply of new Seahawk helicopters used by the US Navy.

Washington, however, cannot easily quell all of Riyadh’s fears. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – consisting of the six Arab monarchies in the Gulf and led by Saudi Arabia – is witnessing rising tensions regarding its stance on Iran. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have taken a bellicose position towards the deal and opposed the normalization of ties with Tehran, while Oman and Qatar formally announced plans to renew trade with their neighbor from the East.

Falling oil prices, on which most of the Gulf economies are based, are only one reason for increased trade with Tehran. Iran’s important role in fighting the Islamic State (ISIS) is another reason for Gulf leaders to court Iran. In fact, in his first state visit following the signing of the nuclear deal, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made it a point to visit Kuwait and Qatar in order to discuss the Gulf’s interest in fighting terrorism alongside Iran. Oman has also kept an open communications channel with Tehran, with which it shares a maritime border in the Strait of Hormuz.

But the Council might prove to be stronger than some expect. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist with ties to the UAE government, believes that despite minor differences, the Gulf States will remain strongly united on Iran. “Iran always was, and always will be, a difficult neighbor for the Gulf States,” he told The Media Line. “What binds the GCC since its inception in 1981 is Tehran’s negative involvement in the region. That did not change a single bit; Iran is still the same aggressive Iran, exporting its revolution and aiding radical groups,” he added.

Abdulla also rejected the belief that the deal will influence the ongoing fighting in Syria and in Yemen.  “The nuclear deal is exactly what it is: a technical nuclear deal. As such, it has no bearing on the situation in these two countries.” Asked about what Saudi Arabia’s next steps would be, Abdulla suggested that all options are on the table. “The Saudis have made it very clear to the international community that they would match any Iranian capability dollar-for-dollar, weapons-for-weapons. There is no way Saudi Arabia would allow Iran to become to dominant power in the region,” he concluded.