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March 12, 2012

Four short questions about Gaza

As exchanges of fire around Gaza continue (rockets fired on Israel, targets hit in Gaza), here are four questions for which I’m not sure I have an answer:

1.

Is there a better option for Israel than the one it is using now – namely, to defend Israel’s citizens with the Iron Dome system (quite successfully), shoot suspected terrorists, and work through third parties (Egypt, Europe) to end yet another cycle of violence with yet another fragile cease-fire? While talk about a Cast Lead II operation tends to spread whenever there’s fire in Gaza, I don’t see much appetite for it right now in Israel, and no real pressure to do it as long as Israeli civilians get through this recent escalation without much damage. 

2.

Can the terrorists of Gaza find a way to circumvent the successes of Iron Dome? Clearly, if they can’t do it, their rockets become much less effective and Israel’s freedom of action becomes much more pronounced. I’m sure the Gazans and their allies (Iran included) are thinking about new ways to hurt Israel, and can only hope it will take them a very long time to come up with some good ideas.

3.

I read this morning that the Quartet of Middle East negotiators – the United States, Russia, the United Nations and European Union – “will meet on Monday to discuss the long-stalled peace process between Israel and the Palestinians”. That’s probably a joke, right?

4.

If one has to list the possible doomsday scenarios in Gaza, what we have now (occasional outbursts of violence) is hardly top of the list – this list:

  1. Chaos.
  2. Having to reoccupy and control Gaza.
  3. Constant barrages of rocket fire.

In light of this list, can Israel really strive to topple Hamas without having someone ready, willing and able to control the area? Can you imagine a candidate for such thankless job?

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Lisa is a L.E.A.N Traveler! (video)

Staying Fit and Lean

Recently I was interviewed for L.E.A.N. Traveler about staying fit while traveling. I lost sixty pounds from when I first met George to when we got married!

Here is part of the L.E.A.N. Traveler interview:

What are your top three tips for staying lean while traveling?
My top three tips for staying lean while traveling are:

1. Don’t let yourself get too hungry. Take a snack or have a piece of fruit in the afternoon so you can say “NO!” to the breadbasket.
2. Walk everywhere you can. I personally lost weight while traveling in Asia for a year because we walked all the time.
3. Portion control: if you are traveling with someone, share a entrée since portion size in the USA has gone haywire and restaurants serve enormous quantities of food.

” title=”Our YouTube channel ” target=”_blank”>Our YouTube channel went over 10,000 views! Which of our 35 videos is your favorite? The most recent one Exploring Penghu Islands in Taiwan or Taipei with over 3300 views?

” title=”www.wesaidgotravel.com” target=”_blank”>www.wesaidgotravel.com

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Opinion: Israel has a legal case for striking Iran

In a world where nuclear weapons could soon be in the hands of a rogue nation like Iran, an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be fully justified. Despite its ban on aggressive war, Article 51 of the United Nations Charter clearly recognizes a state’s inherent right of self-defense. Thus, Israel has full authority to act unilaterally or collectively in its self-defense.

Yet Article 51 does not create the right to self-defense; it is an inherent right of all states under customary international law. Hence, determining when self-defense is appropriate lies, as it always has, with each state.

Under the charter, however, the U.N. Security Council is charged with lifting the burden of individual national self-defense and taking appropriate steps to restore international peace and security. One must recognize, however, that the muscular Security Council envisioned in the charter has never materialized. As such, threatened states are almost always required to make their own decisions and bear their own burdens.

Article 51 allows Israel to use aggressive force against Iran’s nuclear program if an “armed attack” occurs. Its plain language is satisfied when one state has used armed force to attack another state. Under customary international law, a preemptive strike is also permitted when an armed attack is imminent.

Thus an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities would be legitimate for two reasons.

First, Iran already is conducting armed attacks under the plain meaning of Article 51 through Islamist terrorist surrogates Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas, so a de facto state of war exists between Israel and Iran.

Second, even if one questions whether armed attacks have occurred (by discounting Iran’s use of surrogates), Iran’s development of weapons of mass destruction constitutes an imminent, existential threat to Israel.

Under customary international law, the Article 51 “armed attack” requirement that evokes a right of self-defense can occur when a state perceives that such an attack is “immediately impending and inevitable.” Thus, rather than waiting for an actual attack, a state may execute a preemptive strike on the hostile state.

Historically, two elements must be met to legitimize a preemptive strike: proportionality and necessity.

The necessity element is where attention is usually focused. The acting state must have exhausted all other alternatives of dealing with the problem, and the threat from the hostile state must be imminent. As with most preemptive strikes, imminence related to necessity will be the most contested issue in deciding the strike’s legality.

The traditional definition for imminent is when there is “some outward act that initiates the attempt to harm such that the actual harm is close at hand.” Historically an attack was considered imminent when a state could see the mobilization of enemy armed forces preparing for attack. However, according to the modern trend in international legal thought regarding imminent, the threatened attack must be perceived as “instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation.” The hostile state must be about to launch an attack and not merely in the “preparatory stages of such an attack.”

Yet even the more “modern” definition has lagged the development of technology, particularly of WMDs and their rapid means of delivery. Under the historic definition, Israel likely would be required to wait until nuclear warheads were attached to missiles and about to be launched. But by then it would be too late. Failure to stop Iran before it reaches such a point invites disaster because of the potential destruction were such an attack to succeed.

The concept of imminence must be flexible over time, and the definition of “imminent attack” must be adaptable to modern warfare, since the traditional definition fails to account for the lethality and danger of WMDs.

If Israel deems that Iran is actively preparing for a nuclear attack against the State of Israel (an opinion amply supported by Iran’s continuous bellicose threats) and that failure to act would put Israel in grave danger of being unable to prevent that attack, the threat against Israel would in fact be imminent. As such, Israel would be justified in making a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, as long as the attack were proportional and Israel had exhausted all other meaningful alternatives.

While the general rule in international law is that a state may not initiate aggressive war toward another state, an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would not qualify as aggressive war; it would simply reflect Israel’s inherent right to self-defense.

Jay Sekulow is chief counsel of the American Center for Law and Justice, based in Washington. Robert Ash is the group’s senior counsel.

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Peres ends Calif. tour with meeting with Hispanic leaders

Israeli President Shimon Peres ended a weeklong visit to California with a wide-ranging discussion with Latino leaders.

Sunday morning’s event with Peres at a Beverly Hills hotel drew some 120 invited guests, predominantly members of the Latino community and religious leaders, their Jewish counterparts, a smattering of Hollywood personalities, and numerous politicians eager to reach out to Latino and Jewish constituencies at the same time.

An audience question about the influence of the Latino electoral vote triggered a fervent declaration by Peres on American exceptionalism, a catchword of the current Republican presidential primary campaign.

“The United States is the only country with global responsibilities and there are some things only America can do,” Peres said. “When you [Americans] vote, you vote for the future of your own children, but also for the children of other nations.”

An emotional moment came during a question-and-answer period in a one-sentence statement by Pastor Carlos Ortiz, director of Hispanic outreach for Christians United For Israel. Following up an earlier literary allusion by Peres of “I am alone, you are alone, let’s be alone together,” Ortiz declared, “There are 80 million Christians here that say Israel is not alone.”

Peres, 88, showed his familiarity with Latin American literature and politics, but no sign of fatigue after a packed seven-day schedule that included visits to San Francisco and Silicon Valley, and in Los Angeles a mass Jewish community meeting and a trip to the DreamWorks Animation studios.

Israeli deputy consul general Gil Artzyeli, a fluent Spanish speaker who organized the Sunday event, also noted that the evening before, Hollywood had assembled the largest gathering of stars and studio heads to ever meet an Israeli dignitary.

The Israeli was introduced by John A. Perez, speaker and legislative leader of the California Assembly, which led to some banter about the correct spelling and pronunciation of their respective last names.

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Marty Kaplan: Is luck dead?

The trouble with kids these days is that they think luck counts more than they should.  That’s the diagnosis of America’s young people offered by a New York Times opinion piece this past weekend.  Generation Y has moved back home and given up on gung-ho because in these recessionary times, they’re putting too little weight on the importance of effort and too much weight on the riskiness of risk.

This indictment of “” target=”_hplink”>Thinking, Fast and Slow, the one most startling to me is the power he attributes to luck.  This isn’t a philosophical or theoretical point that he’s making; it’s an empirical observation, based on data.

Stock traders, financial analysts, economic forecasters and CEOs may believe that their results are based on research, experience and skill.  On the contrary, says Kahneman, the overwhelming evidence – and he provides plenty of it – is that monkeys throwing darts would be just as good (that is, as bad) at doing their jobs.  Small businesses fail: that’s the rule.  To believe you’re going to be the exception requires not just confidence, it takes a resolute denial of reality.  (Intuition, by the way, is also wildly overrated.)  Every startup inevitably, and usually fatally, overestimates the brilliance of its own vision and underestimates the genius of its competitors.  Entrepreneurs maintain that success derives from sweat and indefatigability, but in fact it nearly always hinges on random, unpredictable events.

Look at the case histories of the wizards of the digital age, says Kahneman, and virtually all of them are testimony to luck.  Pundits and political scientists who get it right are shockingly rare, and when they do, the reason is luck.  The track record of clinicians and therapists depends more on fortune than is humanly bearable to acknowledge.  How an athlete performs on a given day always involves a roll of the dice.  All of history is driven by chance.  Choose any historic figure you like; the sperm and egg that produced them were brought together by blind odds, not by destiny, design or divinity.

This weekend also brought word of the death at age 87 of ” target=”_hplink”>Chance and Necessity, the book by Nobel Prize-winning molecular biologist Jacques Monod published a few years later, that opened my eyes to the disturbing notion that chance, not a Book of Life written in the clouds, was the name of life’s game.

Back then, when I first entered college, an ” target=”_hplink”>Norman Lear professor of entertainment, media and society at the martyk@jewishjournal.com.

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Anne Frank figure unveiled at Madame Tussauds in Berlin

Madame Tussauds in Berlin unveiled a wax figure of Anne Frank depicted sitting at her desk, pen in hand, smiling dreamily.

The unveiling took place last week amid some criticism about including a Holocaust victim at such an unserious location, according to the Bild Zeitung, Germany’s most popular daily. Others say that as long as there is information about the life and death of Anne Frank it is appropriate.

Anne died at age 15 at the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp about a month before the camp’s liberation in April 1945. The best-known photographs snapped of the young diarist by her camera-happy father, Otto—the only immediate family member to survive the Holocaust—show young Anne smiling.

A museum spokeswoman, Nina Zerbe, told Bild Zeitung that the display includes information about Anne in German and English, and she is presented in the context of the room in which she hid.

“This is a three-dimensional history lesson for visitors,” Zerbe said.

The director of the Anne Frank Center in Berlin, Thomas Heppner, who attended the unveiling, praised the idea of bringing visitors closer to history through such displays.

The Berlin branch of Madame Tussauds has been criticized over the inclusion of other historical figures related to the Nazi period. In July 2008, one of the first visitors to the new museum, a 41-year-old Berlin man, lunged past guards and lopped off the head of the Hitler figure. The figure, which depicts a defeated Hitler, was repaired and is now behind glass.

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