Explaining the Math of Israel’s Complicated Coalitions

Back to normality means different things in different countries. In Israel it means feeling as if we are off the pandemic hook. It also means rockets are flying from Gaza again. Why now? Part of it is because we are exiting the pandemic and can go back to the routine of occasional Israeli-Palestinian clashes. Part of it is because of small, unimportant events building up to bigger events. And part of it is because of the Palestinians’ politics (they are supposed to have elections, but they are more likely to postpone them and blame Israel for the postponement).

It is too soon to determine whether the Gaza skirmish and its cousin, the Jerusalem riots (a customary feature of Ramadan) will escalate into something more significant. If it does, the Israeli government that must deal with it is a government living on a borrowed time, with a vague future.

This article will explain the somewhat complicated and confusing political situation in Israel and the ways in which the current logjam can be resolved. Ultimately, all possible options are complicated. We are doomed to live with the math of complicated coalitions.

First Option: Fifth Election

That’s the easy option. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a little over a week to form a coalition. If he does not manage to do this, the mandate goes to someone else or the Knesset. If after another few weeks (depending on how much patience the president has) there is still no government, the current government stays in power and new election are called, to be held in three months.

Why is it complicated? Because all we do is roll the dice once more.

Second Option: Netanyahu Government

Netanyahu failed to form a coalition by pressuring the right-wing Religious Zionism party to join a coalition with Islamist Raam. He failed to pressure New Hope to join his coalition (even though they vowed not to do such a thing). He failed to dissuade Yamina’s Naftali Bennett from attempting to form a coalition.

What he will try to do now is raise the reward for joining him: He just offered Benny Gantz the first rotation as prime minister (for a year) in a joint government. Gantz said no (for now). But clearly Netanyahu is ready to use the bait of the PM’s office and become second-in-command (at least officially) in his own government. So now the question is what will happen if he offers the job to Bennett or Saar. That offer would mean a right-wing coalition with Netanyahu as the “alternate PM” (like Gantz today). If this is acceptable to Bennett and Saar, there could be a coalition of Likud, Yamina, the two Haredi parties, the Religious Zionist party and New Hope. All in all, 65 seats.

Why is it complicated? Because the man with 30 seats (Netanyahu) will be a second in command to the man with seven seats (Bennett). Because it keeps the strange arrangement of “alternate PM” alive. Because it means a rotation after a year, with Netanyahu becoming the PM again.

Third Option: Bennett and Lapid

The third option — and its many variations — is the most talked about and the most audacious. It is a “unity government” led by Yamina’s Bennett (and includes New Hope) and Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid. Lapid has 17 seats, Bennett seven. Lapid and his allies (Labor, Meretz, Israel Beiteinu and maybe Blue and White) have 45 seats, Bennett and his ally have 13. And yet, what they are discussing is a power sharing coalition in which the two factions have the same power.

In essence, Bennett’s stipulation is that the government will not be a center-left coalition but rather a right-center coalition (Netanyahu is going to paint it as leftist no matter the arrangement). Is this fair? Of course not. But the alternative is a fifth election and a continuation of the Netanyahu regime, and that’s something that the center-left is very keen to avoid.

The alternative is a fifth election and a continuation of the Netanyahu regime, and that’s something that the center-left is very keen to avoid.

The math for such a government goes like this: Yamina, New Hope, Blue and White, Yesh Atid, Israel Beiteinu, Labor, Meretz for a total of 58 seats. A minority coalition. How will it survive? By relying on the outside support of the two Arab parties (or one of them, or one and a half of them), such as Raam with its four seats and the Joint List with its six seats. The opposition, led by Likud, would not be able to find 61 votes necessary to unseat the government.

Why is it complicated? Because it’s a minority coalition with no ideological glue other than “we-need a government” and “we need one without Netanyahu.” To assume that such a government can last for very long requires strong gene of optimism.

Fourth Option: Bennett and Lapid

Same as option three, but with the addition of a Haredi party, possibly United Torah Judaism, and possibly the elimination of Israel Beiteinu (if Avigdor Lieberman refuses to sit with a Haredi party and pay the necessary price for it). Why is this a good option? Because it somewhat balances the coalition between the religious right and center-left. And maybe, if this happens, Shas would also agree to join in after a while and make the coalition even more of a right-of-center one.

Why is it complicated? It means that Yesh Atid, Labor and Meretz would see even more of their agenda cast aside.

Fifth Option: Coalition in Stages

This option would see forming a coalition not as the end but rather as the beginning of a long process. Step one: Form a coalition of anyone, make Netanyahu the alternate PM or the head of the opposition and possibly ignite an internal Likud Party war. If Netanyahu is forced to leave (and this will not be an easy thing to achieve) move to step two: reorganizing the coalition. For example, begin with a Bennett-Lapid coalition, then merge Yamina and Likud, then let the merged party the become the main party of the coalition, without a need for the leftist parties.

There are other such scenarios with the same basic logic: Get rid of Netanyahu first, with the possible addition of legislating a way that makes it impossible for him to return (no PM under indictment), then think about creating a long-lasting coalition second.

Why is it complicated? Because Netanyahu has no plans to go anywhere. And as a head of the opposition, he can be effective and destabilizing for any alternative coalition.

Shmuel Rosner is an Israeli columnist, editor, and researcher. He is the editor of the research and data-journalism website themadad.com and is the political editor of the Jewish Journal.