The Israel File Appendix: the Right’s Climb

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Oftentimes, we also post an appendix to the File, to update you on the political situation with more detail and nuance. Our update includes information about the state of the polls. Today, we include two graphs, one with the full table of poll averages, and the other one a graph of averages for two possible coalitions. Let’s look at the graphs, and then explain what they show:

1. There are two leading parties. Likud with slightly less than 30 seats in most polls, and right-religious Yamina with a little more than 20 seats in most polls. This has been the case for quite some time, and could mean two very different things.
2. It could mean that Netanyahu is no longer the only real contender on the right for the top job. Naftali Bennett is signaling that his goal is not to be Netanyahu’s number two but rather to challenge him. Bennett’s party is not yet the alfa dog in this fight, but it is gaining strength, while the voters get used to the idea of Bennett as a potential PM.
3. It could also mean that for Netanyahu the next election will be a walk in the park. With him on top, and Bennett as the main challenger, the only game in town is on the right. As the coalition graph shows, the classic bloc of Likud, Yamina and the two Haredi parties is getting stronger. All Netanyahu needs to do is make sure that Bennett has no alternative other than being his number two. Sure, there is bad blood between these two politicians, but this is something that grownup politicians often have to overcome.
4. Also noteworthy: the center-left is getting smaller, among other things, because of the declining numbers of the Arab Joint List. All polls give it 2-4 seats less than its current number (15 seats). This is mainly because of astute political moves by Netanyahu, who managed to appeal to one of the factions of the Joint List, and create a rift within the party. When Arab parties fight, Arab voters tend to stay home.
5. Yesh Atid, the main opposition party, did not yet find a way to grow. Its trendline of averages is almost flat. That’s no way to become an alternative.
6. Let us look at other optional coalitions. If Blue and White, Yesh Atid, Israel Beiteinu, Meretz and the Joint List would form a bloc – they have 53 seats. If Yamina decides to ditch the right-religious option, and join forces with Blue and White, Yesh Atid and Israel Beiteinu – it is 56 seats. The current coalition, Likud, Blue and White and the two Haredi parties – is 57. So, the right-religious option is the only option unless we bet on more daring scenarios.
7. What is a daring scenario? Yamina agreeing to join a coalition with Meretz. Yesh Atid having a coalition with Shas and United Torah Judaism. In short, coalitions whose ideological compatibility is nonexistent. Coalitions whose one and only true goal is to unseat Netanyahu.
8. Is Israel likely to have new election soon? As Netanyahu decides what to do he is likely to weigh four main factors: his trial (January), his agreement with Gantz (slated to become PM next fall), Covid-19 (vaccine is expected in a few short months) and the polls (and what they say about his political prospects. What we have here is just one component out of these four.