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POLLS
Here are the poll averages for July.
- The current 73-member coalition no longer has a majority in public polls.
- The right-religious bloc could form a coalition if elections were held today, but its advantage is slim.
- The party losing the most is Blue and White, followed by Likud. Yesh Atid and Yamina are gaining.
- Politically speaking, the opposition is the better place for now, and the coalition is losing supporters both on the center-left (Yesh Atid) and the right (Yamina).
COALITIONS
What are the options for the coalition as we ponder the volatile situation of the current coalition?
- The current coalition holds.
- Netanyahu forms a 61-member coalition without Blue and White. To do that he needs to find two Knesset members willing to join his coalition. Possibly Derech Eretz’s Hendel and Hauser, who currently are saying no way. Or possibly Labor members whose current prospects of reelection are nil.
- Netanyahu is ousted and a coalition is formed without him. In this unlikely but not impossible scenario, Likud could easily form a large unity coalition.
- According to current polls the result will be a narrow right-religious coalition, but this could change when the actual campaign begins.
LIKUD
Looking at the Likud party since election day, this graph tells a story of a party that’s rising, and the beginning of a sharp decline in which it loses almost a quarter of its potential voters. Most of these voters moved to Yamina.
BITS AND PIECES
When asked about handling the pandemic, the public trusts opposition leader Naftali Bennet more than Netanyahu.
Most voters believe that if Israel holds another election, it is Netanyahu’s fault.
Rightwing voters see Netanyahu as the most fit to be prime minister followed by Bennet and Likud MK Gideon Saar.
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot is mentioned as a potential contender for the leadership. Polls give a party headed by him more than 10 seats.
