1. Take a look at our updated poll trends tracker. The numbers are constantly updated, but we also have a new short analysis that deals with Israel's supposed “center” and what it might do after Election Day. That is to say: Will Lieberman, Kahlon and Lapid join a Likud-Netanyahu coalition or a Herzog-Livni coalition (or stay in the opposition)? We have the answer for you (sort of).
2. I keep getting questions about A. the main topic of this election and B. the main ideological differences between the parties.
My answer on the first question is simple and unoriginal: it is much too early to tell what topic will determine the outcome of the election, but it is already clear that the anti-Bibi camp (and that includes several powerful media outlets) believes that the more Israel talks about socio-economic issue, the more likely it is that Israelis will look at options other than Netanyahu. You might find this a little strange – after all, Netanyahu was much better in keeping Israel's head above water level when an economic storm was rocking the world, than in keeping the peace process on track and Israel's international standing intact. But here rests the great difference between Israelis and non-Israeli observers: the observers only want to talk about the Palestinian problem and think it is the most profound among Israel's problems (Roger Cohen, in a column the other day, doesn't refer to economics in his article about Israel's election). Israelis don't really believe a solution to the Palestinian problem is within reach and prefer to concentrate on economics.
My answer to the second question: very few ideological debates. I wrote an article about that two weeks ago.
3. Is the coming election important? Not really, if what you are looking for is a great change in Israel's policies. It could be, if what you are looking for is a change in Israel's tone and image.
4. Probable outcome of the election: looking at today's polls three scenarios come to mind:
A. A Netanyahu-led coalition of right-religious and a sprinkle of center. It could be a stable coalition, but also one that many Israelis would feel quite unhappy to see.
B. A Herzog-led coalition of left, some center, some haredis. It would be very unstable. The only meaningful outcome (achievement, if you like) of such a coalition would be to put an end to the Netanyahu era.
C. A Likud-Labor coalition with some centrist additions. In Israel, everything is possible, including such a coalition (as I already stated, ideological differences are fewer than you think – the problem with this coalition is going to be too much ego).
