Looking at my 2014 predictions and at 2015

A year ago, I posted a number of predictions. But these were not really predictions. As I explained in the introduction to my list, “I don't trust predictions. Not even ones made by the experts. They tend to be wrong when it counts and to be right when it doesn't – when the obvious happens”. Is this what happened with my predictions for 2014? You can be the judge.

I wrote:

The six months of negotiations will not be enough, and a decision will have to be made: is Iran serious enough for the west to keep negotiating? Trust Iran, it will be serious enough to make negotiations look like the more tempting option.

An easy one – and correct.

I wrote:

If the Syrian war can be contained without having much influence on neighboring countries, no one is going to invest too much in putting an end to it.

Easy – correct.

I wrote:

Israel will have to say yes to the American framework proposal. The Palestinians are less likely to say yes. But even if both sides agree to the framework, I don't quite see how this could be translated to a workable agreement. 

What “framework” agreement? I was right to assume that there will be no breakthrough, but the scenario I laid out did not materialize.

I wrote:

The coalition can change, elections can be scheduled (but this is not very likely to occur during 2014), parties can split. 

The not-very-likely is what actually happened.

I wrote:

2014 might be the quietest year in quite a while when it comes to Israel as an electoral issue [in the US].

Yes – this one I got right. 

Now – let’s turn to 2015:

Israel's elections: too soon to make a prediction, but I have to say that in recent days a number of political operatives told me that a unity government of Likud and Labor is much more likely than people tend to think. Netanyahu might have enough votes to establish a right-haredi coalition, but he knows that such a coalition is going to get Israel in trouble. He needs someone to his left, and the Herzog-Livni duo is not a bad possibility. The challenge facing both leaderships of both parties in such a case will be simple: how to control the party Huns.

The Palestinians: Another year of stalemate. I recently came to the conclusion – not that surprising – that the Palestinian leadership needs to change for this track to be viable again. Not that Abbas is such a terrible leader, but he is old, and not very popular, and seems tired, and does not have the stature with which to make a bold move. Possibly, 2015 will be his last year. But we wish him good health – and maybe it won't be his last year. The bottom line prediction is this: the next real opening is when Palestinian politics reshuffle.

Iran: more foot dragging? I think yes.

US-Israel: There are several issues besides Iran and the Palestinian issue that can be contentious and cloud US-Israel relations. The most serious of them: the 2015 NPT review conference. When disagreements over sensitive issues such as nuclear policy reveal themselves, Israel becomes very nervous. This is an issue that the public knows little about, and Israelis are hardly aware of its existence. But some Israelis in high office are worried about April, another testimony to the current low level of trust between Israel's government and the US administration.

US Jewry: as I wrote here recently, the rise of Chabad is going to be an issue of much discussion among US Jews in 2015. And of course, the never ending debate over intermarriage isn't going to end. Possibly, this is the year in which the Conservative movement is going to have to seriously consider changes to its policy of no-interfaith-ceremonies, as was proved in the last two weeks (see the stories of rabbi Gardenswartz and USY's dating ban – both covered aptly by Uriel Heilman).

Israel's most urgent issue: Not Iran, not peace, not Gaza (unless you know what). After the election, any government assembled will have to go back to the drawing board and deal with housing prices. There are no magic tricks here, but something needs to be done, and quickly. The challenge for the next government will be that of bettering the atmosphere and giving young Israelis a stronger sense of hope. The outgoing government had an opportunity to do that – and the opportunity was lost.