If you are tired of my writing about polls, I can’t blame you. But here is one nugget worth noting from the new Israel Index survey. As you probably know by now, Israelis are quite pessimistic about the prospect of peace with the Palestinians in the near future. They are also generally supportive of having negotiations with the Palestinians. But with the current wave of Palestinian violence against Israelis in the background, the Israel Index asked the following question:
“In your assessment, would the signing of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians bring a stop to the Palestinian terror against Jews?”
This is an important question, because it goes to the core of Israelis’ understanding of the nature of the conflict with the Palestinians. As I wrote this week on my blog Rosner’s Domain (jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain), in John Kerry’s view, the root of the conflict — and the current violence — is Palestinian desire for independence and statehood. And in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s view — the one he was trying to sell in his speech this week at the Saban Forum at the Brookings Institute — the issue is Palestinian rejection of Israel’s existence.
Obviously, these are two very different interpretations, and they lead to very different conclusions. If one thinks that all the Palestinians want is a state, one might be willing to see if there is a way for Israel to accommodate their aspiration and bring about peace for everyone. If one thinks what they want is to eliminate Israel, no accommodation is possible. The question asked by the Israel Index poll gives us an opportunity to clearly see which of the two interpretations the Israeli public believes in.
So, among the general public, only about one third of respondents are “sure” or “think” that a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians will “bring a stop to the Palestinian terror against Jews.” A vast majority say, in essence: Even if we have peace, the violence will continue. But this is the view of a vast majority of Jews. Among Arab Israelis, 72 percent believe that violence will stop if there is a peace agreement. Among Jewish Israelis, only 25 percent believe that violence will stop if there is a peace agreement. Forty-two percent of Jews are “sure” that violence will continue; 29 percent “think” it will continue. A clear and vocal majority of Israel’s Jews see little or no connection between the advancement of peace and the rise or decline of Palestinian violence.
This has huge implications, of course, and that is why I decided to zero in on this one question from the survey.
I assume that, for Israelis, the main reason to want peace with the Palestinians is their need for calm and security. Of course, there are other reasons, such as the moral unease inherent to a situation of occupying people who have no political rights. But security always comes first. If Israelis supported the withdrawal from Gaza, it was because they were tired of the cost involved in maintaining security for the settlers without seeing much benefit from keeping the area. If Israelis supported a withdrawal from southern Lebanon, it was because they were tired of the cost involved in maintaining security there. If Israelis — a long time ago — supported the evacuation of the Sinai Peninsula, it was because they wanted peace with Egypt. That is to say: They wanted violence to subside.
But now Israelis say they do not believe that the violence will stop — not even if a peace deal is signed between Israel and the Palestinians. So their motivation for a peace agreement is, naturally, quite low. In fact, the more violence they see from Palestinians, the less motivation they have for peace.
Having such low expectations for peace is a problem. It is a problem for both Israel and for the Palestinians. It is a problem for those who want to assist the two parties in negotiations. It means the issue that needs to be addressed before any further advancement can be made is that of confidence. Of course, many people have talked in the past about the need for confidence-building measures, but this survey question makes it clearer: Unless Israelis believe that a peace agreement means peace — and not a continuation of violence, as three-quarters of Jewish Israelis believe — there will be no way of persuading them that peace negotiations are worth the effort.
And the problem is this: The leaders of Israel can convince Israelis of many things, but convincing them that the Palestinians are ready to stop the violence against Israelis when a peace agreement is signed is, at least partially, the job of the Palestinian leadership. And their leaders do not seem ready to take on that job any time soon.
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