(The Media Line) Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas announced general elections last January after years of political paralysis. The call to elections comes as attempts to organize the chaotic Palestinian political landscape is underway.
Fourteen rival Palestinian factions agreed in Cairo last week on steps to advance the elections process. In the wake of the agreement, small steps appear to have been made in bridging the deep divide between the two largest Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas.
Osama al-Sharif, a veteran Jordanian journalist and political commentator, told The Media Line that the internal challenges inside the two largest factions “have forced them into reaching an understanding for now.”
However, some pundits doubt that the elections will actually take place.
“My doubts are not based on the current state of the mindset of the Palestinians, but because I see there are objective political dynamics that will not allow them to happen,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute.
Omari told The Media Line that there’s more “energy” and there seems to be more “conviction” among Palestinians that elections will be held than at any other time in the past but, he adds, “I just don’t see Hamas and Fatah willing to do any kind of reconciliation.”
Omari said that reconciliation would require both parties to “really” give up part of their power in the areas under their control. Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, and its rival Fatah rules the West Bank.
He is skeptical that elections will take place since they must be preceded by political and institutional reform.
“Right now, we just simply don’t have an indication that there will be free and fair elections,” or even whether Fatah and Hamas are willing to assure such elections, said Omari.
Omari calls statements by Abbas threatening to block Fatah members who plan to run on independent candidates lists from participating in the election, including by using force, “troubling.”
In addition, he said, “I very much doubt that Hamas will allow free and fair campaigning in Gaza. They don’t have a good track record of allowing other people to express their political opinions.”
Right now, we just simply don’t have an indication that there will be free and fair elections.
Institutional reform is an essential prerequisite in key sectors within the Palestinian Authority, Omari says.
“If you don’t have strong institutions, a strong and independent judicial system, depoliticized security, it makes it difficult to have a proper election and the results of the elections will not be respected,” he said.
He added that if these reforms don’t take place, the elections will be “irrelevant,” and people will “dismiss” them.
Mahmoud Dodeen, an assistant professor of private law at Qatar University, told The Media Line that calling elections was a necessity for the Palestinian factions in order to protect their political future.
“Hamas is no longer able to run the Gaza Strip due to the high costs and the decline of its funding sources. Likewise, Fatah’s management of the West Bank is no longer popular because of corruption and favoritism, and its leadership in the national project has declined, thus its popularity gradually erodes,” Dodeen said.
Aside from the deep divide between the two largest factions, Palestinians must contend with another schism. Fatah, long the most popular faction, is facing an intra-party split ahead of the scheduled elections. Abbas, who is expected to run again for president, wants to project at least a semblance of unity as his Fatah Party deals with its own internal turmoil.
“Fatah has deep divisions between the aging ruling class and the younger members who are fed up with the status quo, corruption and lack of vision to move forward,” said al-Sharif.
Al-Sharif says it is difficult to predict how things will look after the elections, but holding these elections – the first in 15 years – is still the only option.
“Palestinian democracy has suffered as well with Abbas holding all the reins of power without offering anything to the Palestinians and failing to end the rift. The elections will be a leap in the dark and it is difficult to ascertain the final outcome,” he said.
Fatah has deep divisions between the aging ruling class and the younger members who are fed up with the status quo, corruption and lack of vision to move forward.
Part of the reason behind the division can be attributed to Abbas’ governing style.
There are glaring differences between Abbas and his predecessor Yasser Arafat, who 16 years after his death is still highly popular and revered among many Palestinians. Arafat was able to move the street in any direction he wanted. This is something that Abbas hasn’t been able to do. Unlike Arafat, he is unpopular and lacks Arafat’s charisma.
“Arafat for all of his sins, at least knew the need and the importance of keeping the base energized and involved. Under Abu Mazen we are seeing Fatah becoming more and more of the authority party,” said Omari, referring to Abbas by his nom de guerre.
Many accuse Abbas of alienating his base, and some go as far to say that he has “destroyed” Fatah, while centralizing power in his hand and in a small circle of confidants that surround him, such as PA General Intelligence Service head Majed Faraj and PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh.
These two figures in the eyes of many have insulated Abbas from Palestinian public opinion and from what is really happening on the ground, and they are the two confidants that have full, unmitigated access to Abbas, while older veteran Fatah leaders are either shunned or marginalized.
Some of the tactics used, Omari says, include “forcing people into early retirement, using money and government positions to either gain loyalty and patronage or making people pay for their disagreements or opposition of him.”
One example of such tactics was the purging of Abbas nemesis Mohammed Dahlan and his supporters.
Dahlan, the former Gaza security chief, is one of several Fatah members who have set their sights on the presidency.
Dimitri Diliani, spokesperson of the Reformist Democratic faction within Fatah, says Dahlan is a “major threat” to Abbas,
“If Abbas and Dahlan compete head-to-head, the latter will win,’” Diliani says. He added that, a year ago, Dahlan told him he is “not thinking about running.”
The Abbas-Dahlan power struggle is tearing the faction apart. Meanwhile, Dahlan’s supporters say they will run for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), the Palestinian Authority’s unicameral parliament.
“Let’s not jump the gun, but Mr. Dahlan has a great chance of winning the election. Whether Dahlan wants to or not I don’t know now. I asked him a year ago and he said it wasn’t time to talk about it. But I want to state here that it is my wish that he goes for it,” Diliani told The Media Line.
He says that his Reformist Democratic faction within Fatah is popular, with hundreds of thousands of members and supporters.
A Palestinian court convicted Dahlan in 2014 in absentia of corruption charges after a bitter dispute with Abbas. Abbas expelled Dahlan from Fatah in 2011 and has since dismissed hundreds of his supporters.
He lives in exile in the United Arab Emirates and works as an advisor to the powerful Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
Abbas has threatened to block any Fatah member from creating a candidate’s list for the parliamentary election independent of his own.
“It’s laughable. First of all, our ticket will not seek his approval. He can do whatever he wants. We are not subject to his approval; we seek the approval of the Palestinian people, not the approval of an 85-year-old man that hasn’t been elected for the past 15 years,” said Diliani. “We will enter the election; they cannot stop us.”
Diliani says Abbas has made a “mockery” of Palestinian politics and has weakened the Fatah movement.
“In Palestine we don’t have three branches of government, we have one. This branch of government is held by an 85-year-old guy and the people around him are yes people,” he said.
But the Abbas-Dahlan feud isn’t the only crisis swirling inside the 53-year-old movement. Abbas has not appointed a successor, creating fierce behind-the-scenes competition between Fatah leaders over who will fill his seat.
Los Angeles poet Rick Lupert created the 
