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August 1, 2019

Election Handbook: Not-Quite-United Right vs. Not-Quite-United Left

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until next Election Day, September 17. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype, and of he-said-she-said no news, unimportant inside baseball gossip.

 

Bottom Line

We finally have final lists.

 

Main Political News

Registration is now closed. The parties will no longer split, merge, recruit.

The main parties are: Likud, Blue and White, The United Arab Party, Israel Beiteinu, The Democratic Camp, The United Right, Labor, United Torah Judaism, Shas. For now, these are the only parties that seem to be able to cross the electoral threshold.

On the right, there is still a split. Zehut (Moshe Feiglin’s libertarian party) Otzma (ultra nationalist) and Noam (a national haredi party) will run independently.

On the left, Labor leader Amir Peretz withstood the pressure to merge with the Democratic Camp. Labor will focus on social agenda.

 

Developments to Watch

 Campaign: The real campaign begins only now. Until yesterday, parties were fighting to sustain themselves and/or prove their values as they seek mergers. Next week, it is finally about the voters.

Left: The big question for the left is: Will the Labor party make it pass the threshold and into the Knesset. If not, many votes could be lost.

Right: A similar question: How many voters will insist on voting for parties with little chance of getting in.

Coalition: From now until election day, everything the politicians are saying about their post-election preferences ought to be taken with more than a grain of salt. The numbers will dictate their ultimate preferences.

Participation: Will voters participate? Will they come on Election Day? This could make or break a close election. Especially interesting is the question of Arab participation. Back in April, half of Israel’s Arab voters did not come to the polls. They now have a united party to vote for. So – will they vote?

 

The Blocs and Their Meaning

This might sound disappointing, or boring, but the blocs situation does not change. It did not change when a new party on the left (The Democratic Camp) formed. It does not change, at least not yet, when a new party on the right forms (the United Right).

If you look at the 2 graphs below, you’ll see that they both tell the same story: The blocs’ composition is stable. Netanyahu has no path to a right-religious coalition, unless he convinces Lieberman to join in. Gantz has no easy path to any coalition, except unity government with Likud.

 

 

A Party to Watch

How is Lieberman doing? Here is proof that he keeps getting stronger. To show this we present four average: of the last 20 polls, the last 10, the last 5, and the last 3. As you can see, the more recent polls show his growing strength. So, Lieberman is not yet done inching up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Rosner’s Torah Talk: Parshat Matot-Masei with Rabbi Dan Moskovitz

Rabbi Dan Moskovitz is the Senior Rabbi of Temple Sholom in Vancouver BC. An American now living in Canada since 2013. He is the chair of Reform Rabbis of Canada. Rabbi Moskovitz is the author of The Men’s Seder – an experiential Haggadah published by the Men of Reform Judaism Press The unique Haggadah that grapples with the role of men in our society today and the pressures that enslave them. He is currently writing a second edition. He is a frequently sought after voice by the media on issues of refugees, anti-semitism and Jewish values. He will be one of five authors of the URJ Reform Voices of Torah – weekly Torah commentary in the New Year.

This Week’s Torah portion – Parashat Matot-Masei (Numbers 30:2-36:13) – begins with Moses presenting the heads of the tribes with rules concerning the annulment of vows. War is waged against Midian and the Torah lists the different spoils Israel took hold of in their victory and describes how they are distributed. The tribes of Gad, Reuben and half of Menashe ask Moses for the territory East of the Jordan as their portion of the promised land, and Moses eventually agrees on the condition that they first help conquering the part West of the Jordan. The boundaries of the Promised Land are stated, and cities of refuge are designated as havens for people who commit inadvertent murder. The portion ends with the story of the daughters of Tzelafchad marrying men of their own tribe (Menashe) in order to keep the estate which they inherited from their father within their own tribe.
Previous Torah Talks on Matot-Masei
Rabbi Uri Regev

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Rosner's Domain Podcast

Arieh Eldad: Is Israel fulfilling its promise?


Arieh Eldad and Shmuel Rosner discuss the upcoming elections and Israel’s duty to the world Jewry.

Aryeh Eldad, M.D is an Israeli physician and politician, and a former member of the Knesset for the National Union and Otzma LeYisrael. He is also Brig. General (Ret.) in the IDF.

Rosner’s Podcast is a joint project of the Jewish Journal and the Jewish People Policy Institute.

Arieh Eldad

Follow Shmuel Rosner on Twitter.

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Turkish President Says He Opposes All Allies of Israel

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on television on July 28 that he and his ruling party AKP (Justice and Development Party) oppose anyone that sides with Israel.

In his address to senior AKP officials, Erdogan said, “Whoever is on the side of Israel, let everyone know that we are against them. We do not approve of silence on the state terror that Israel blatantly carries out in Palestine.”

The American Jewish Committee tweeted in response to Erdogan on July 30, “President Erdogan, we now understand your opposition to democracy, minority rights, and free expression.”

Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have exchanged barbs in the past. In December, Erdogan said in a speech at the Turkey Youth Foundation, “The Jews in Israel kick people laying on the ground. In fact, Jews don’t kick men but also women and children when they fall on the ground.” A day later, Netanyahu called Erdogan “an anti-Semitic dictator” who “has an obsession with Israel.”

In March, Netanyahu’s son, Yair, tweeted he’ll “remind” Erdogan “that Istanbul is actually a city called Constantinople! The capital of the Byzantine empire and center of orthodox Christianity for more then [sic] a thousand years before Turkish occupation!” Erdogan said a few days later that Netanyahu should twist his son’s ears for that comment, and that Turkey has “other ways to educate Israel” if Netanyahu and Yair continued their name-calling.

Erdogan also has frequently compared Israel to Nazi Germany, which included him saying in December that “the Palestinians are subjected to pressures, violence and intimidation policies no less grave than the oppression done to the Jews during WWII.”

Turkey has developed warmer relations with Iran since 2016 and supports Hamas, allowing it to operate in Istanbul.

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Mayim Bialik Proud As NYC Subway Riders Erase Swastika

(JTA) — Actress Mayim Bialik praised New York City subway passengers for erasing hate.

Bialik, who starred in “The Big Bang Theory,” in a post on Instagram described how, while on the subway with her two sons, fellow riders used hand sanitizer to remove the word “Nazi” written in permanent marker from a seat.

She called it a “very powerful moment of unity and understanding.”

Bialik and her sons, ages 10 and 13, were in New York over the weekend for the Fortnite World Cup, a video game tournament. She said her boys noticed the word Nazi on the seat, as did the other passengers.

“They took out some hand sanitizer and began removing the marking. THIS is America. It was a very powerful moment of unity and understanding, and I’m grateful that my boys got to witness it in action,” she wrote.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B0jJ5pHBxqD/

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UNRWA Announces Appointment of Acting Deputy Amidst Allegations of Misconduct

Christian Saunders has been appointed the new acting deputy commissioner of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

Saunders will replace Sandra Mitchell, who resigned from her position as deputy commissioner in July. In a December 2018 report, investigators in UNRWA’s ethics office alleged that Mitchell used her position to have her husband, Robert Langridge, appointed as deputy director of UNRWA’s Jordan office in October 2018. Mitchell and Langridge have denied the allegations.

The report also alleges UNRWA’s top leadership engaged in “sexual misconduct, nepotism, retaliation, discrimination and other abuses of authority, for personal gain, to suppress legitimate dissent, and to otherwise achieve their personal objectives” since Commissioner General Pierre Krahenbuhl assumed control of the agency in 2014. Additional allegations include Krahenbuhl was romantically involved with his senior adviser Maria Mohammedi and fast-tracked her appointment to that position in 2015 so she could travel with him. Staffers at the agency claimed when they told Krahenbuhl the relationship created a “toxic environment” he made them feel “increasingly isolated and marginalized” in retaliation, according to the Associated Press. Krahenbuhl has denied the allegations.

The U.N. Office of Internal Oversight Services is currently investigating the allegations outlined in the report.

Both Sweden and the Netherlands temporarily suspended funding to UNRWA on July 29. Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Danny Danon tweeted that day, “The allegations of corruption at the highest levels of UNRWA is revealing, if not surprising. For decades, the organization and its leadership have sold lies to perpetuate the Palestinians’ refugee status. UNRWA is nothing more than an anti-Israel org. Time to hold it accountable.”

U.N. Watch Executive Director Hillel Neuer tweeted to Krahenbuhl on August 1, “You ‘unreservedly’ reject these ‘rumors or fabrications.’ Yet your top officials resigned in disgrace. Swiss & Dutch froze funding. Only Hamas believes you. Reflect on that.”

Neuer also predicted that Saunders would eventually become the acting head of UNRWA.

Saunders previously served as the UN’s assistant secretary general for supply chain management. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres’ office said in an August 1 statement: “Mr Saunders brings to the position over three decades of experience in humanitarian and international affairs with a strong focus on delivering results and overseeing major reforms leading to improved organizational effectiveness and efficiency.”

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UK Has Record 892 Anti-Semitic Incidents for First Half of 2019

(JTA) — A record number of nearly 900 anti-Semitic incidents have been recorded in the United Kingdom for the first six months of 2019.

The Community Security Trust, or CST, which is British Jewry’s largest watchdog on anti-Semitism, released its  January-June 2019 Antisemitic Incidents Report, on Thursday. The 892 incidents reported in the first half of 2019 is the highest number recorded in that six-month period and is a 10 percent increase from the 810 incidents recorded during the same period in 2018.

There were 38 incidents of damage and desecration of Jewish property in the first six months of 2019; 710 incidents of abusive behavior, including verbal abuse, anti-Semitic graffiti, anti-Semitic abuse via social media and cases of hate mail; 49 direct anti-Semitic threats; and ten cases of mass-mailed anti-Semitic leaflets or emails.

Some 323, or 36 percent, of the anti-Semitic incidents involved social media, compared to 221 incidents, or 27 percent of the total, on social media in the first half of 2018.

The highest monthly totals in the first half of 2019 were in February and March, with 182 and 169 anti-Semitic incidents respectively. They occurred when issues relating to Jews and anti-Semitism in the Labour party were prominent in the news and politics, CST pointed out.

CST recorded a 37 percent increase in the number of violent anti-Semitic assaults, to 85 in the first six months of 2019, up from 62 in the first six months of 2018.

Almost two thirds of the 892 antisemitic incidents were recorded in Greater London and Greater Manchester, the two largest Jewish communities in the UK.

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Netanyahu on Reports of Syria Strike: ‘We’re Defending Ourselves At All Times’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indirectly commented on reports that Israel launched a strike against Syria on August 1, saying that Israel is “defending ourselves at all times,” the Times of Israel reports.

The Syrian Arab News Agency, a Syrian state-run outlet, and the Saudi Arabian-based Al-Arabiya network reported that Israel fired at a missile at the Quneitra region in the Golan Heights on August 1. The reports stated that there were no deaths, but the missile caused material damage; the reports didn’t indicate the extent of the damage.

Speaking at an August 1 memorial ceremony for Zionist leader Ze’ev Jabotinsky, Netanyahu said, “On the northern front, we’re acting against Iran and Hezbollah, and you’re hearing about that now as well.”

The Times of Israel reports that Israel frequently launches strikes in Syria targeting Iran’s weapon shipments to Hezbollah, its terror proxy, in Lebanon.

Earlier on August 1, a Palestinian gunman wearing a Hamas uniform shot and wounded three Israeli soldiers at the Israel-Gaza border, all of whom are expected to survive. The Jerusalem Post ’s Anna Ahronheim suggested that Israel’s reported Syria strike and the Palestinian gunman’s attack on the Gaza border could lead to a war on three fronts.

“According to a recent report in Haaretz, Iran and Hamas have agreed to open a second front in the south from the Gaza Strip should a war break out in Israel’s north,” Ahronheim wrote. “Israeli officials have warned that any war that breaks out in the north will not be confined to one border-Lebanon, or Syria-but both. That would mean a war fought on three fronts.”

She added that while Israel was able to fight a two-front war in 2006, Hamas and Hezbollah’s “military capabilities” have since “increased tremendously with massive rocket and missile arsenals aimed at the Jewish State’s homefront.”

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Palestinian Gunman Crosses Gaza Border and Injures 3 Israeli Soldiers

JERUSALEM (JTA) — A Palestinian gunman who crossed the border from southern Gaza into Israel shot and injured three Israeli soldiers.

The gunman was killed by other soldiers in the area in the early Thursday morning incident, according to the Israel Defense Forces. The IDF said it also fired on a Hamas military post with tank fire.

Although the man was wearing a Hamas uniform it is believed he acted alone, the IDF said in a statement. He also threw a grenade at the troops.

Two of the soldiers were lightly injured and released from the hospital. Their officer was moderately injured.

The soldier was identified as Fadi Abu Salah, whose disabled brother was killed by Israeli soldiers during protests in May on the Gaza border.

The family of Lt. Hadar Goldin, who was killed by Hamas gunmen exactly five years ago — two hours into a cease-fire during the 2014 Gaza War and whose body is being held in Gaza — has called on the Israeli government to not turn over Abu Salah’s body until their son’s is returned.

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Democrats Get Personal on Second Night of Debates, But Once Again Scorch Trump for Racism

DETROIT (JTA) — The second night of debates for Democrats seeking the presidential nomination was often bitter and personal, but the candidates united once again in accusing President Donald Trump of racism.

Many of the candidates took shots at former Vice President Joe Biden, who is the front-runner among the 25 Democrats running. Ten candidates who met minimum polling and fundraising thresholds debated on Wednesday, as did another 10 on Tuesday.

Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., who drew blood in the June debates when she recalled Biden’s boast of getting along with segregationist colleagues and his past opposition to busing school students as a means of integration, returned to that theme.

“Had those segregationists their way, I would not be a member of the United States Senate, Cory Booker would not be a member of the United States Senate, and Barack Obama would not have been in the position to nominate him to the title he now holds,” she said of Biden.

Booker, the New Jersey senator, slammed Biden for his past support of tough-on-crime laws, and Biden returned fire noting reports of police abuses in Newark when Booker was major of that New Jersey city.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, in turn, excoriated Harris for her tough-on-crime reputation when she was California’s attorney general.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., resurrected an old op-ed Biden had written as senator opposing a bill that would have funded childcare. Biden noted his advocacy for a number of bills advancing women’s rights, and that Gillibrand had in the past praised him for his record.

“I don’t know what’s happened except you’re now running for president,” he said, to applause.

The first night was less personal and focused more on policy differences between moderates and the two progressive frontrunners who appeared that night, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Both nights, candidates united in calling out Trump for racism, most recently for his repeated attacks on the majority-black city of Baltimore.

“He is using the tired old language of demagogues, of fearmongers, of racists,” Booker said to cheers.

Immigration featured large in the debate Wednesday, with the major difference over whether illegal crossings should be decriminalized. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., opposed decriminalization but added that he did not believe that anyone on the stage would separate children from their parents at the border, as had the Trump administration.

“This is personal for me,” Bennet said. “My mom is an immigrant, and she was separated from her parents during the Holocaust in Poland.” Bennet, who does not identify himself as Jewish, had in the June debates also noted the Holocaust past of his mother and grandparents.

Biden’s first remarks were aimed at Trump’s divisive rhetoric. “Just look at this stage, made up of very diverse people from diverse backgrounds, went on to be mayors, senators, governors, congresswomen, members of the cabinet, and, yes, even a vice president,” he said. “Mr. President, this is America. And we are stronger and great because of this diversity, Mr. President, not in spite of it, Mr. President.”

Foreign policy once again barely featured in the questions from CNN moderators. Andrew Yang, an entrepreneur, was the only candidate to be asked a question about Iran policy. “I would move to deescalate tensions with Iran because they’re responding to us pulling out of the agreement,” Yang said, referring to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Trump pulled out of in 2018.

“We have to reenter that agreement and renegotiate the timelines because right now the timelines don’t make sense,” said Yang. Critics of the deal negotiated under the Obama administration said it allowed Iran to return to weapons-grade enrichment levels too soon.

The deal traded sanctions relief for a rollback of parts of Iran’s nuclear program, and its commitment to never seek a weapon. As Trump has reintroduced and reinforced sanctions, the Iranians have begun to violate some terms of the deal, including limits on stockpiles of enriched uranium.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio was upset that the moderators only asked Yang about Iran. “We’re on the march to war in Iran right now!” he shouted as the moderators spoke over him.

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