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January 1, 2019

Israel’s Election Handbook: Can Netanyahu Survive “Indictment Election”?

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until April 9. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype, and of he-said-she-said no news, unimportant inside baseball gossip.

Bottom Line

Netanyahu’s legal issues will dominate the last leg of the election.

Main News

The Attorney General intends to inform the public prior to Election Day if he intends to indict Netanyahu.

A split in the Zionist Camp: Hatnua leader Tzipi Livni was kicked out by Labor leader Avi Gabbai, and is searching for a new political platform.

Schedule

A decision by the AG is expected within weeks – closer to Election Day but not too close.

Developments to Watch

Political: Will more parties commit not to seat with Netanyahu in a coalition if he is indicted?

Personal: Can Livni 1. Form a new platform that has a chance of success (it does not look good for her, numbers’ wise), or 2. Find a college that is willing to take her in as a partner (also doesn’t look good for her – no current enthusiasts).

Material: More countries are moving their embassies to Jerusalem (Honduras is next). This helps Netanyahu to argue that the “diplomatic tsunami” against Israel, promised by his rivals, was no more than scare tactic.

What’s the Race About

Can Netanyahu be Prime Minister and stand trial at the same time.

Possible Wild Cards:

A decision not to indict Netanyahu.

A deal with Netanyahu: Leave politics and get off the legal hook.

The Blocs and Their Meaning

We offer two options of political blocs. In the graphs bellow you can see what happened to these blocs since Dec. 25, the day new elections were announced. Since then, parties fractured, but blocs remain relatively stable.

 

And here you can see the averages of the two bloc options both since January 2018, and in the last round of polls on Dec. 30. As you can see, all changes are quite marginal. The left bloc is a little smaller today than it was earlier this year. The center is a little larger. The right does not have a coalition without some addition from the center (but it does not need more than one midsize additional party to form such coalition).

Focus on One Party

Shas, the Sephardic Haredi Party, is in crisis since the death of its spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. All polls predict that Shas is likely to decline from its current seven  seat situation. The question is: how much? Israel’s electoral threshold is 3.25%. Meaning: Shas must gain about four seats (we don’t know the exact result needed before the votes are counted) to have a place in the Knesset. Will it? As you can see, it’s possible, but shaky.

 

 

 

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Rosner's Domain Podcast

Dennis Ross: Geo-Political Predictions for 2019

Shmuel Rosner and guest Dennis Ross discuss the possible events that will shape 2019.

Ambassador Dennis Ross is co-chairman of JPPI’s Board of Directors and Professional Guiding Council. He rejoined JPPI in 2011 after serving as a special assistant to President Obama and NSC Senior Director for the Central Region. For more than 12 years (1988-2000), Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East and was the point man on the peace process in both the Gorge W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. From 2002-2008, he was part of the founding group of JPPI and served as its first chairman. He is the William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Dennis Ross

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Five Things I Learned From Amos Oz

I didn’t know Amos Oz, the Israeli literary giant who died of cancer on Dec. 28 at age 79. I only met him once, about 20 years ago, when he spoke at a synagogue in Los Angeles. At the time, I had launched a spiritual magazine that promoted Jewish unity. When the person who introduced us mentioned that I was into Jewish unity, Oz quipped that in the Jewish world, “Unity means if you agree with me, then we’ll have unity.” The man had a sense of humor.

When I reflected more seriously on what he had said, that became the first thing I learned from Oz: Don’t dream the wrong dreams. Jewish unity may sound wonderful, but it is a pipe dream. It’s nebulous and naïve. Oz could dream, but he was a hard-nosed dreamer. He knew how the world worked; he knew that sharp disagreement was built into the human condition.

Oz could dream, but he was a hard-nosed dreamer. He knew how the world worked; he knew that sharp disagreement was built into the human condition.

The second thing I learned from Oz came during the same conversation. “Disagreement is a good thing,” he told me, “until it turns into animosity. That I mind.” Here was a man of words drawing a red line for healthy discourse. He was telling us to disagree, yes, but disagree without anger, without rejection, without resentment. Twenty years later, when one sees the state of our communal discourse today, this red line resonates.

The third thing I learned from Oz is how to talk about the Holocaust. Six million Jews were not killed, he would say, “they were murdered.” When I heard him say that, I remember how he deviated from the theme of his talk to make a point about the difference between killing and murdering. It felt as if he had done so countless times. He was a man of words. He was telling us that you can’t truly honor the victims of the Holocaust without being clear and accurate about the kind of evil they encountered.

Another clear word from Oz helped me better understand the complicated Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which was the fourth thing I learned from him. “We need a divorce from the Palestinians,” he would say. It took me years to fully appreciate the essential truth of that idea. Oz had a reputation for being a lefty peacenik, but his concept of divorce had nothing to do with leftism or peace delusions. If anything, it recognized the hard reality of irreconcilable differences. Over the years, more and more Israel supporters have come to appreciate this reality.

Oz was bitterly opposed to many policies of the Israeli government, but he was a deep lover of the country he called home, the place he wrote about with such poignant lyricism.

Oz was bitterly opposed to many policies of the Israeli government, but he was a deep lover of the country he called home, the place he wrote about with such poignant lyricism. How did he reconcile this paradox? This is the fifth thing I learned from Oz — the art of loving something that can drive you nuts. “I love Israel even when I can’t stand it,” he would say. These are the words of a lover. When someone very close to us does something we deeply dislike, we “can’t stand it” precisely because we love them so much.

Oz knew how to love, how to express his love, and how not to let go of that love. Among the many things that will form his legacy, this extraordinary love will be one of them.

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The David Suissa Podcast

Daniel Luria: Can Jews and Arabs peacefully co-exist in the Old City?

Daniel Luria, head of Ateret Cohanim, discusses what it’s like to have a Yeshiva in the Muslim Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem.
This episode is sponsored by Yeshiva University’s Wurzweiler School of Social Work. Please visit them at Wurzweiler.
Daniel Luria

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