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March 12, 2013

Venezuela to probe Chavez cancer ‘poisoning’ accusation

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Venezuela will set up a formal inquiry into suspicions that the late President Hugo Chavez's cancer was the result of poisoning by his enemies abroad, the government said.

The accusation has been derided by critics of the government, who view it as a typical Chavez-style conspiracy theory intended to feed fears of “imperialist” threats to Venezuela's socialist system and distract people from daily problems.

Still, acting President Nicolas Maduro vowed to push through a serious investigation into the claim, which was first raised by Chavez himself after he was diagnosed with the disease in 2011.

“We will seek the truth,” Maduro told regional TV network Telesur late on Monday. “We have the intuition that our commander Chavez was poisoned by dark forces that wanted him out of the way.”

Foreign scientists will be invited to join a government commission to probe the accusation, the OPEC nation's acting leader said.

Maduro, 50, is Chavez's handpicked successor and is running as the government's candidate in a snap presidential election on April 14 that was triggered by his boss's death last week.

He is trying to keep voters' attention firmly focused on Chavez to benefit from the outpouring of grief among his millions of supporters. The opposition is centering its campaign on portraying Maduro, a former bus driver, as an incompetent who, they say, is morbidly exploiting Chavez's demise.

'HIS FAITHFUL SON'

“They're attacking him saying he isn't Chavez. Of course Nicolas isn't Chavez. But he is his faithful, responsible, revolutionary son,” senior Socialist Party and campaign official Jorge Rodriguez told reporters.

“All these insults and vilification are going to be turned into votes for us on April 14.”

Running for the opposition's Democratic Unity coalition is a business-friendly state governor, Henrique Capriles, 40, who lost to Chavez in a presidential vote last year.

Tuesday was the last day of official mourning for Chavez, although ceremonies appear set to continue. His embalmed body was to be taken in procession to a military museum on Friday.

Millions have filed past Chavez's coffin to pay homage to a man who was adored by many of the poor for his humble roots and welfare policies, but was also hated by many people for his authoritarian style and bullying of opponents.

Though Maduro has spoken about combating crime and extending development programs in the slums, he has mostly used his frequent appearances on state TV to talk about Chavez.

The 58-year-old president was diagnosed with cancer in his pelvic region in June 2011 and underwent four surgeries before dying of what sources said was metastasis in the lungs.

Maduro said it was too early to specifically point a finger over Chavez's cancer, but noted that the United States had laboratories with experience in producing diseases.

“He had a cancer that broke all norms,” Maduro told Telesur. “Everything seems to indicate that they affected his health using the most advanced techniques … He had that intuition from the beginning.”

Maduro has compared his suspicions over Chavez's death with allegations that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died in 2004 from poisoning by Israeli agents.

The case echoes Chavez's long campaign to convince the world that his idol and Venezuela's independence hero Simon Bolivar died of poisoning by his enemies in Colombia in 1830.

Venezuela's National Assembly was expected to begin debating a proposal by pro-government legislators and Chavez supporters to call a referendum – which could also be held on April 14 – on whether he should be buried at the pantheon in Caracas, a mausoleum built for Bolivar's remains.

OPPOSITION'S UPHILL FIGHT

Though keeping a low profile out of respect for Chavez's supporters, opponents are furious at what they see as the use of his death by government officials to bolster their chances of staying in power.

Launching his candidacy on Monday, Maduro's speech began with a recording of Chavez singing the national anthem. Hearing his booming voice again, many supporters wept.

As well as the wave of sympathy over Chavez, the opposition faces a well-financed state apparatus, institutions packed with government supporters, and problems within its own rank-and-file, still demoralized over October's presidential election defeat and a mauling at gubernatorial polls in December.

Capriles, an energetic lawyer and career politician, has tried to kick-start his campaign with accusations that Maduro and other senior officials lied about the details of Chavez's illness, hiding the gravity of his condition from Venezuelans.

That has brought him a torrent of abuse in return, with the words “Nazi” and “fascist” being used by senior government officials – despite Capriles' Jewish roots.

An opposition official, Henri Falcon, told a news conference Capriles had not registered his candidacy in person on Monday because his team had received “very serious information that an ambush was being prepared for him.”

At stake in the election is not only the future of Chavez's leftist “revolution,” but the continuation of Venezuelan oil subsidies and other aid crucial to the economies of left-wing allies around Latin America, from Cuba to Bolivia.

Venezuela boasts the world's largest oil reserves.

Polls from before Chavez's death gave Maduro a lead over Capriles of more than 10 percentage points.

Though there are hopes for a post-Chavez rapprochement between Venezuela and the United States, a diplomatic spat worsened on Monday when Washington expelled two Venezuelan diplomats in a tit-for-tat retaliation.

Additional reporting by Marianna Parraga.; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Christopher Wilson

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Iran clerics take Ahmadinejad to task for hugging Chavez’s mother at funeral

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Senior Iranian clerics have scolded President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for consoling Hugo Chavez's mother with a hug – a physical contact considered a sin under Iran's strict Islamic codes.

The rebuke follows a widely published photo showing Ahmadinejad embracing Chavez's mother at the funeral of the late Venezuelan president in what is seen as taboo-breaking behavior in Iran.

Iranian papers on Tuesday cited clerics from the religious center of Qom who described the hug as “forbidden,” inappropriate behavior and “clowning around.”

Read more on Haaretz.com.

Iran clerics take Ahmadinejad to task for hugging Chavez’s mother at funeral Read More »

Spy agencies say cyber attacks leading threat against U.S.

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U.S. intelligence leaders said for the first time on Tuesday that cyber attacks and cyber espionage have supplanted terrorism as the top security threat facing the United States.

That stark assessment, in an annual “worldwide threat” briefing that covered concerns as diverse as North Korea's belligerence and Syria's civil war, was reinforced in remarks by the spy chiefs before the Senate Intelligence Committee.

They expressed concern that computer technology is evolving so quickly it is hard for security experts to keep up.

“In some cases, the world is applying digital technologies faster than our ability to understand the security implications and mitigate potential risks,” James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, told the committee.

In written testimony, Clapper softened his analysis somewhat, playing down the likelihood of catastrophic attacks on the United States in the near term – either through digital technologies, or from foreign or domestic militants employing traditional violence.

But this year's annual threat briefing underscored how, a decade after the Iraq war began and nearly two years after the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, digital assaults on government and computer networks have supplanted earlier security fears.

On Monday, White House national security adviser Tom Donilon, citing complaints from U.S. businesses about alleged Chinese cyber espionage, said the issue is a growing challenge to economic relations between the United States and China.

China said on Tuesday it was willing to meet Donilon's request that Beijing talk with the United States about cyber security.

ECONOMIC COSTS

Last month, a private U.S. computer security company issued a study accusing a secretive Chinese military unit of being behind hacking attacks on a wide range of American industries.

China has denied such reports, and says it is a victim of cyber spying by the U.S. government.

The annual economic loss from cyber attacks is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars.

In a separate hearing on Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services committee, Army General Keith Alexander, head of the U.S. military's Cyber Command, said cyber attacks on private companies and in particular on the U.S. banking sector were getting worse. He predicted that the intensity and number of attacks will grow significantly throughout the year.

Alexander said the military was beefing up its cyber warrior team, adding troops from across the military as well as civilians. He said there would be three teams: a Cyber National Mission force which will deploy teams to defend against national-level threats; a Cyber Combat Mission force in charge of operational control; and a Cyber Protection force which will defend the military's information systems.

The goal is to add the new resources to the teams by the end of 2015, but one third of them are planned to be in place by this September.

BUDGET CUTS

Clapper also used Tuesday's Intelligence Committee hearing to give an alarming account of how U.S. intelligence capabilities will be damaged if Congress does not move to ease financial pressures caused by automatic across-the-board budget cuts known as sequestration.

Due to funding cutbacks, thousands of FBI employees could face furloughs, five thousand intelligence contractors could be terminated, cyber security efforts could be affected and older overhead intelligence collection systems – spy satellites – could face cutbacks, he said.

Intelligence agencies at a minimum want Congress to give them the authority to redistribute cuts among programs “to minimize the damage,” he said.

Clapper presented to the Senate panel a 34-page paper that ran through a wide variety of threats covered by U.S. intelligence agencies, from continuing Middle East instability to what is predicted to be China's continuing domination of the world's supply of rare earth elements.

On two of the most volatile global crisis points, the U.S. spy agencies' assessment was restrained.

While Iran is improving its expertise in technologies including uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles, which could be used in a nuclear weapons program, the intelligence community does not believe Iran's leadership has decided to build a nuclear weapon and does not know if or when it might do so.

This assessment is consistent with a controversial 2007 finding, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded Tehran had “halted its nuclear weapons program” in fall 2003 and had not restarted it as of mid-2007, although it was keeping open the option of building nuclear weapons.

SYRIA

On Syria, U.S. spy agencies assessed that the erosion of the government of President Bashar al-Assad's ability to defend itself is accelerating.

Assad's forces have stopped insurgents from seizing cities such as Aleppo, Damascus and Homs, but the agencies say insurgents have been gaining strength in rural areas. This could ultimately lead to the establishment of a “more permanent base” for the rebels in Idlib province along the border with Turkey.

The listing of cyber-related attacks as the top item in the annual threat assessment is a departure from assessments offered previously. In 2011 and 2012, the first threat listed in the agencies' annual assessment to Congress was terrorism.

Editing by Warren Strobel, Xavier Briand and Todd Eastham

Spy agencies say cyber attacks leading threat against U.S. Read More »

Fearful Syrian voters will keep Assad in power, Hezbollah deputy leader says

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Syrian President Bashar Assad is likely to run for re-election next year and win, with Syria remaining in military and political deadlock until then, said the deputy leader of Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah group.

Sheikh Naim Qassem, who predicted a year ago that Assad would not be dislodged from power, said the Syrian leader would win a vote because his supporters understood that their communities' very existence depended on him.

“I believe that in a year's time he will stand for the presidency. It will be the people's choice, and I believe the people will choose him,” said the bearded, turban-wearing Shi'ite cleric, speaking carefully and deliberately.

“The crisis in Syria is prolonged, and the West and the international community have been surprised by the degree of steadfastness and popularity of the regime.”

Citing rifts among Assad's foes inside and outside Syria, as well as disagreements among world powers over Assad's future, Qassem said any talk of political solutions was futile for now.

“It will take at least three or four months” for any such solution, he said in a meeting with Reuters editors. “Maybe things will continue until 2014 and the presidential election.”

The two-year-old revolt against Assad is the bloodiest and most protracted of the Arab uprisings. At least 70,000 people have been killed and the violence has stoked tensions across the Middle East between the two main branches of Islam.

Shi'ite Iran and Hezbollah have supported Assad, whose Alawite sect derives from Shi'ite Islam. The mainly Sunni rebels are backed by Sunni powers Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.

Some Western leaders have long predicted Assad's imminent demise, but Qassem said he was likely to be re-elected in 2014.

BLACKED-OUT WINDOWS

Wearing brown robes and a white turban, he spoke in a windowless office in Hezbollah's southern Beirut stronghold.

Journalists were driven to the undisclosed venue in a car with blacked-out windows, a security precaution in violence-prone Lebanon. Three Hezbollah leaders have been assassinated in the past two decades; the group blames Israel for the killings.

Hezbollah, the most accomplished military force in Lebanon, fought Israel to a standstill in a 2006 war and, with its mainly Shi'ite and Christian allies, now holds a majority of cabinet seats in Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government.

Mikati has tried to insulate his country from the fighting in Syria but Lebanese Shi'ites and Sunnis have both been drawn into the fighting. Hezbollah denies accusations that it has sent its forces into Syria to fight alongside Assad's troops.

Despite significant and sustained rebel gains, Qassem said the Syrian authorities had scored a string of military successes since insurgents launched attacks in Damascus a few months ago.

“The regime has started winning clearly, point by point,” he said. “And the tensions among the countries supporting the armed (rebel) groups have become clearer.”

Assad's forces still control central Damascus and large parts of the cities of Homs, Hama and Aleppo to the north. But they have lost swathes of territory in the rural north and most of the eastern towns and cities along the Euphrates River.

In such areas, the Syrian military relies heavily on missiles, artillery and air strikes to pin back rebel advances.

RISK OF DISINTEGRATION

Qassem said Syria only had one viable option: “Either they reach a political solution, in agreement with President Assad … or there can be no alternative regime in Syria,” he said.

Asked whether Syria might fall apart, he replied: “Everything is possible.”

Syria's population includes Christians, Shi'ites, Alawites, Druze and Ismailis as well as majority Sunnis who include mystical Sufis and secularists as well as pious conservatives.

Qassem portrayed authorities as fighting to protect that diversity in the face of hardline Sunni Islamist rebels. “The regime is defending itself in a battle which it sees as an existential fight, not a struggle for power,” he said.

Assad also faced international opposition from countries trying to break the “resistance project,” a reference to the anti-Israel alliance of Syria, Hezbollah and Iran, he added.

Israel, which diplomats and regional security sources said bombed a convoy in Syria two months ago carrying weapons which may have been destined for Hezbollah, has warned that military action may be needed to stop Iran's nuclear programme.

Israel and Western nations suspect Iran is seeking atomic weapons, a charge it denies. Israel says a “clear and credible military threat” against Iran is needed to halt Tehran's work.

But Qassem said the United States was reluctant to get dragged into a “costly” conflict with Tehran.

“It would not halt Iran's peaceful nuclear programme but would just delay it for a few years,” he said. “In return America's interests in the region and those of its allies and Israel would be in great and unpredictable danger.”

Washington's caution over Iran had echoes in what he said was its equivocal position towards Syria.

Although the United States says it provides only non-lethal aid to the rebels, Qassem said the presence of U.S.-made weapons in Syria proved it had at very least given approval for third countries to ship arms to Assad's opponents.

But the prolonged fighting had put Washington in a dilemma about whether to “follow the political path” instead, he said.

“America has lost its way over the steps it wants to take in Syria. On the one hand it wants the regime overthrown, and on the other it fears losing control after the regime falls.”

Additional reporting by Laila Bassam; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Alistair Lyon

Fearful Syrian voters will keep Assad in power, Hezbollah deputy leader says Read More »

March 12, 2013

Leave a Comment / Israel, Mobile Sections, Must Reads, News, Rosners Domain-mobile, Worldwide /

Headline: Obama Meets With Arab-Americans Ahead Of Mideast Trip

To Read: Leon Wieseltier sees parallels between Obama's current by standing in Syria and Clinton's inaction in Bosnia:  

I am finding crushing parallels: a president who is satisfied to be a bystander, and ornaments his prevarications with high moral pronouncements; an extenuation of American passivity by appeals to insurmountable complexities and obscurities on the ground, and to ethnic and religious divisions too deep and too old to be modified by statecraft, and to ominous warnings of unanticipated consequences, as if consequences are ever all anticipated; an arms embargo against the people who require arms most, who are the victims of state power; the use of rape and torture and murder against civilians as open instruments of war; the universal knowledge of crimes against humanity and the failure of that knowledge to affect the policy-making will; the dailiness of the atrocity, its unimpeded progress, the long duration of our shame in doing nothing about it. The parallels are not perfect, of course. Only 70,000 people have been killed in Syria, so what’s the rush? Strategically speaking, moreover, the imperative to intervene in Syria is far more considerable than the imperative to intervene in Bosnia was. Assad is the client of Iran and the patron of Hezbollah: his destruction is an American dream. But his replacement by an Al Qaeda regime is an American nightmare, and our incomprehensible refusal to arm the Syrian rebels who oppose Al Qaeda even as they oppose Assad will have the effect of bringing the nightmare to pass. Secretary of State Kerry seems to desire a new Syrian policy, but he is busily giving our side in the conflict—if we are to have a side by the time this is over—everything but what it really needs. 

Quote: “He announced before landing in Cairo that he comes to tell us to participate in the parliamentary elections, he came with the intention to tell Egyptians what they should do and we simply wanted to tell him that we are fed-up with the United States telling us what to do. We are telling Kerry that we will not accept orders or anything that looks like orders from anyone”, Hamdeen Sabahi, Egypt’s former presidential candidate and opposition leader, slams John Kerry's demands.

Number: 42, the percentage of Iraqis who feel more secure following the 2011 US withdrawal.

 

Israel

Headline: UN clears Israel of charge it killed baby in Gaza

To Read: Nahum Barnea believes that jealousy and ego are at the center of Netanyahu's momentous decision to oust Knesset speaker Reuven Rivlin:

Netanyahu, like any prime minister, wants a Knesset speaker who will be loyal to him personally – more than he is loyal to the Knesset. As far as he is concerned, Rivlin worshiped the wrong god. His wife Sara, as expected, added fuel to the fire. She sat in the gallery during celebratory Knesset sessions and made remarks against Rivlin's tolerance toward her husband's rivals.

Netanyahu suspected that in the current Knesset, which will elect the next president, Rivlin will be even more attentive to every MK and every faction. Instead of paralyzing the opposition, he will let it operate freely. Thwarting Rivlin's re-election as Knesset speaker is also aimed at thwarting his election as president. Netanyahu could have forgiven Rivlin for the crime of decency, but he could not forgive him for being loved.

Quote: “We've seen a lot of pressure in the past few weeks. Entrepreneurs don't want to get stuck and not meet the deadlines presented to their clients. They're also afraid they won't be able to sell apartments. There's still very high demand in Judea and Samaria but already you can see doubts, and entrepreneurs understand that”, A Samaria council member voices fears ahead of Obama's upcoming visit.

Number: 5-10%, the success rate of the Iron Dome missile system according to MIT professor and leading Missile expert Theodor Postol.  

 

The Middle East

Headline: Syria rebels, army locked in combat in Homs, Damascus

To Read: According to Frank Salameh, Syria as we know it is a relatively new phenomenon:

Today a political order is needed to manage the multiple identities of the Middle East—Syria included. It must not impugn them, suppress them or pretend they don't exist. Orientalists, Arabists in particular, should stop railing against the pre-modern heritage of the region. They would serve their fields by admitting that tribal, sectarian, and ethnic identities matter in the Middle East, trump all others, and deserve consideration in any thoughtful reflection on the region’s troubles. Absent that, no sense of meaningful civic identities, or genuine “citizenship” can ever develop, and Syria will prove a mere passageway to the impending unraveling of other Middle Eastern states.

Quote: “in relation to what is allowed (halal) and what is forbidden (haram) we know that no unrelated women can be touched unless she is drowning at sea or needs (medical) treatment”, Hojat al-Islam Hossein Ibrahimi, member of Society of Militant Clergy of Tehran, criticizing the consolation hug given by Ahmedinijad to Hugo Chavez's mother.

Number: 86, the percentage of 2011 Palestinian exports that go to Israel.

 

The Jewish World

Headline: Vienna Philharmonic reveals new details about past Nazi ties

To Read: Alex Joffe sees AIPAC's pomp as a kind of celebration of the common Hebraic tradition at the core of both US and Israeli identities:

 Equally significant is the systematic construction of a unique cross-cultural entity, a sense of shared American-Israeli peoplehood.  No cause, force, or organization brings Americans, primarily Jews but also Christians, together like the cause of Israel as managed by AIPAC.  It creates a fuzzy hybrid, a cultural, quasi-religious nationalism rooted in history.

Steny Hoyer articulated this with unusual clarity: “America’s ties with Israel run far deeper than matters of security and statecraft.  The United States, a young nation, and Israel, heir to an ancient birthright, were founded on the same values.  These are the principles of human dignity and basic justice first laid out in the Torah and embraced by America’s Founders.  A line connects the wisdom of our shared scripture to the hearts and minds of those who wrote the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and our Bill of Rights.”

The closing ceremony of the policy conference—the roll call, where attending U.S. senators and congressmen are presented to the delegates—enthusiastically weaves American institutions, American Jews, and Israel into a single entity with a shared destiny.  This is a modernized, ecumenical version of the historic Congregationalist vision of America as the New Jerusalem, linked practically as well as theoretically to the Old Jerusalem, restored under the Jews.

Quote:  “I am a secular woman but I sympathize with these women's struggle for freedom of expression and religion”, Meretz MK Tamar Zandberg joining the struggle of the Women of the Wall.

Number: 13, the percentage of Hungarians aged 18-30 who can give a figure for the number of victims in the Holocaust. 

March 12, 2013 Read More »

Lots of listening, no grand initiatives expected on Obama’s Mideast trip

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When President Obama visits Israel next week, Gavriel Yaakov wants him to jump-start the peace process.

“I’m excited,” said Yaakov, 67, sitting in a Tel Aviv mall. “I want negotiations to get to an agreement on a long-term peace with the Palestinians.”

Yaakov said he trusts Obama, but his friend, Yossi Cohen, is more skeptical.

“I’m not excited,” said Cohen, 64, who charged that the president supports Islamists and “hasn't done anything” to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon.

“No one has helped,” Cohen said. “Whoever thinks there will be peace, [it will take] another 200 years.”

Their views reflect two of the president's overriding concerns as he prepares to embark on a three-day trip to Israel next week.

Obama remains deeply unpopular in Israel, with approval ratings of about 33 percent last year, and Jewish leaders and local analysts are urging him to try to improve his relationship with the Israeli public. But the president also is seen as wanting to promote a renewed effort at Middle East peace, though administration officials, wary of a top-down push for peace, have emphasized that the president is leaving such initiatives up to the parties there.

In a meeting with American Jewish leaders last week, Obama conceded that the short-term outlook for a peace agreement is “bleak,” but that prospects could improve in the coming months. Instead, the president was focused on how best to reach out to Israelis, participants said, asking for input about what he should say and whom he should try to reach.

Obama held a similar meeting with Arab-Americans, soliciting their input about his trip and expressing his “commitment to the Palestinian people” and to partnering with the Palestinian Authority in an effort to establish “a truly independent Palestinian state.”

“It creates an opportunity not only for a new beginning between the president's second term and the prime minister of Israel, who is beginning a new term — assuming he puts together a government, which I think he will,” Dennis Ross, Obama's top Iran policy adviser in his first term, said at last week's American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference, before Netanyahu had established his coalition.

“But I think it also is a chance to create a connection with the Israeli public and to demonstrate unmistakably when the president says that he's determined to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons, he isn't saying that from a distance. It's not an abstraction. He can go and he can address the Israeli public directly.”

Obama will land at Ben-Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv on March 20. He is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres, as well as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Peres will present Obama with the Presidential Medal of Distinction, Israel's highest civilian honor.

His itinerary includes a visit to an Iron Dome missile defense battery, the Israel Museum, the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum and the graves of Theodor Herzl and slain Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. After departing Israel on March 22, Obama will travel to Jordan for consultations with King Abdullah.

The night before his departure, he will address thousands of Israeli students at Jerusalem's convention center. The speech is consistent with Obama's history of directly addressing the public during his trips abroad, and specifically young people.

“I think this is consistent with his town squares,” said Alan Solow, a top Obama fundraiser and former chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. “He recognizes that in the future, the world will be flatter than today and it's essential that future leaders understand the good intentions of the United States to promote a better and more peaceful world.”

Obama's engagement with Mideast peacemaking was turbulent in his first term. His relationship with Netanyahu has been rocky at best, and his previous attempt to restart the peace process, in 2010, failed after three weeks.

The president's low approval rating in Israel is likely only to complicate matters. The 33 percent rating is actually a significant improvement over his first term, when pressure on Israel to freeze settlement expansion in the West Bank helped push his approval numbers below 10 percent.

“Obama needs to reestablish a relationship of trust with the Israeli public,” said Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute. “Whether Obama likes it or not, Netanyahu is the elected leader of the State of Israel, and whether Netanyahu likes it or not, Obama is the elected leader of the U.S. It’s time for the two leaders to accept the inevitable and learn to work together.”

U.S. administration officials have aimed to lower expectations for any concrete outcome to the Obama trip, denying recent reports in the Israeli media that the president is preparing a major peace initiative and emphasizing that he intends to do a lot of listening. Analysts say in order to make progress on the peace front or the Iranian nuclear threat, another issue much on the minds of Israelis, Obama needs to be more candid about past failures.

“For a game-changing speech, you need to speak realistically,” said Gil Troy, a McGill University history professor who is also a Hartman fellow. “You can’t pretend it’s the start of the Oslo peace process. You need to move forward based on the failures. I think Israelis are primed for it.”

Klein Halevi said a similar honesty should be evident in Obama's treatment of the Iran issue. Israelis are doubtful of the president's repeated assertion that all options are on the table in addressing the nuclear threat, he said, and urged the president to speak directly to the Iranian leadership in his convention center address.

“When Obama speaks on Iran, he shouldn’t be speaking only to the Israeli public,” Klein Halevi said. “He should be directly addressing the leadership of Iran from Jerusalem.”

Despite the caution coming from the White House, Israelis are anything but unified in their skepticism of a new peace push. On Facebook, 23,000 people have “liked” a push to have Obama address the masses at Rabin Square, the emotionally charged plaza where the prime minister who signed the Oslo Accords was assassinated in 1995.

“We want to send the message that there’s a public desire to turn the page and strive for peace,” said Amit Youlzari, 31, the lead organizer.

With Obama set to speak in Jerusalem, Youlzari has helped arrange for the speech to be shown on large projection screens in the square.

“We want to tell the U.S. that we support Obama and the messages we hear from him,” Youlzari said. “And we want to send the world a picture of a full plaza of people who want peace.”

Ben Sales reported from Tel Aviv and Ron Kampeas from Washington.

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The End of the Two-State Solution? 10 Notes from the Herzliya Conference

Leave a Comment / Israel, Israel, Middle East, Mobile Sections, Mobile-Homepage, News, Rosners Domain-mobile /

1.

“Do you really want to go inside?” a friend asked me at the entrance to the main hall of the Herzliya Conference. “You know” he said, “it`s Tzipi Livni speaking” — insinuating that there`s no point in wasting one's time on her.

Livni- four years ago a legitimate contender for the role of Prime Minister, and since four weeks ago the first building block off the new Netanyahu coalition and the appointed new engine of Israeli/Palestinian peace talks — is not even a must-hear speaker at the conference. I went inside anyways: things have changed for the worse for Livni, but they can just as easily change back for the better.

2.

The afternoon was dedicated to the two-state solution, one of only “two options” if we are to believe Livni — two states for two people or one state for no people. Obviously, some of Livni`s future coalition partners have a more creative imagination, and can think about other options.

3.

Livni said some things that I can barely understand, such as 'the problem with Turkey needs to be solved'. How? By whom? When she says that it needs to be solved it might create the impression (intentionally or not) that Israel isn't trying hard enough to amend the relationship. If that`s the case, I`d like to hear why Israel is at fault here. If not, Livni should better formulate her message.

4.

Enough about Livni, though. She was followed by a panel. Rob Danin, Mike Herzog, Shlomo Avineri, Yoaz Hendel, Nati Sharoni, Danny Dayan — smart people, some of who are also my friends. Barak Ravid of Haaretz moderated. He began by joking that getting the man from Haaretz to moderate such panel is a cliché, and then moved on to make it a cliché by speaking at length about his dislike of the occupation. It was not an easy panel to moderate, not an easy one to follow. Seriously, an afternoon discussion about the viability of the two-state solution? Spending an afternoon listening to more talk of “bottom up”, “delegitimazation”, “sustainability”, “direct talks”, “American engagement”, “incremental steps”, “final status”? When the beach is so close and the temperature is so high?

5.

Avineri, while supportive of the two-state solution, explained why peace is untenable at the moment. As a pragmatic way of moving forward he suggested to move slowly, manage the conflict, agree on small things — not as substitute to a final status agreement, but rather as a step toward it. If there was an agreement among the panelists, it was about the need to avoid grandiosity and move slowly. If there was disagreement it was about whether such a move would eventually lead to a “two-state” situation.

6.

Herzog was adamant: settlements haven't yet brought us to a “point of no return.” That`s one myth worth debunking, and Sharoni later joined Herzog in doing it, armed with a short film in which maps and stats drove the point home. Settlements surely would not make it easier to achieve peace, but most of the settlers are in blocs, and most of the territory is still free of permanent Israeli presence.

7.

When will the “window of opportunity” close? No one knows, Herzog said. He didn`t say this, but I would add: there will be no official announcement or a ceremony marking the grand closing of the window. (And windows can be closed and then reopened)

8.

Hendel stole the show by doing something simple: the peace seekers' club speaks too much English and too little Arabic and Hebrew. Since the Herzliya conference takes place in Israel, Hendel chose to speak in Hebrew. He was the first panelist to speak Hebrew (Sharoni, following him, also spoke Hebrew, Dayan, who spoke last, felt a need to explain why he'd rather speak English — to let the guests from abroad hear a settler uninterrupted by translation). Speaking Hebrew in this case isn`t about sending a nationalistic message, it is about reminding the participants and the audience that Israelis will be the ones making decisions and living with the consequences, and they should be the ones convinced that  a two-state solution is in their best interest (Hendel doesn`t think the solution is currently attainable).

9.

So, is the two-state solution over? A recent TNR headline – “the end of the two-state solution” (by Ben Birnbaum) — implied that it is. But it's not. What works as a headline for a panel or for a journalistic report doesn't always work in reality. In fact, it doesn't even work for Birnbaum. Beneath the dramatic headline, all he claims in his worthy and interesting piece is that currently “the essential conditions for peace remain” and that “by the end of Barack Obama’s presidency, however, every one of these circumstances could vanish — and if that happens, the two-state solution will vanish along with them.” So it hasn't yet vanished: “if” certain things happen, then “by the end of Obama's term,” namely in four years or so, “circumstances could” make the solution vanish.

10.

The fact of the matter is that it is totally irrelevant whether the “solution” is going to vanish or not in two years or four years or eleven, if it can't be implemented. And the panel didn't seem to be convinced that implementation is near.

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World Bank: Palestinian economy in decline

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During President Obama’s visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA)  next week, he will visit the West Bank towns of Ramallah, where he will meet PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, and Bethlehem, to see the Church of the Nativity. A new report by the World Bank says he will see an economy that is in steady decline and losing its competetiveness.

The World Bank published its report ahead of a forum of donors to the Palestinian Authority in Brussels next week. It said the deterioration of the Palestinian economy “will have lasting and costly implications for economic competitiveness and social cohesion.”

The report blames Israel for its economic restrictions, lack of freedom of movement, and prolonged closures. Israel says its restrictions are solely for security. The report says the PA

“Continued financial support by the donor community, and increased reform efforts by the PA to manage the current fiscal challenges must remain a high priority,” Mariam Sherman, World Bank Country Director for the West Bank and Gaza told The Media Line. “However, such bolder efforts to create the basis for a viable economy need to be made to prevent the continued deterioration that will have lasting and costly implications for economic competitiveness and social cohesion.”

The economy could lose its ability to compete in the global market. The productivity of the agricultural sector has been cut in half since the late 1990’s, and the manufacturing sector has stagnated. In Gaza, the quality of infrastructure in sectors like water and transportation is declining.

Unemployment among university graduates is close to 30 percent and Palestinian society is facing a growing brain drain.

“What is their option but to look for job opportunities abroad?” Naser Abdelkarim, a professor of economics at Birzeit University told The Media Line. “They simply leave the West bank and Gaza. If you want to let young people stay you must offer them hope for a better future.”

Part of the problem has to do with the world recession and the slowing of economic activity in Israel. The report also says that donor countries have not paid their pledges to the PA, leaving them unable to pay the salaries of civil servants.

Israel has also contributed to the problem by holding some $100 million it collects in customs and tax revenues on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. The PA also has large debts to banks and suppliers.

Economic growth is also down, from 11 percent in 2010 and 2011 to 6.1 percent in 2012. While those numbers are positive, especially in comparison to growth rates in Europe, most of it is fueled by donors which is not sustainable in the long – term.

The future of the Palestinian economy is expected to be on the agenda when President Obama sits down with President Abbas. Palestinians say the political issue and the economic reality are intertwined.

“It must come up in the meetings because you cannot talk about a political settlement of the conflict without talking first about living conditions of the Palestinians,” Professor Abdelkarim said. “I expect that the Israeli restrictions of our economy will come up too. Unemployment is also linked to the political issue.’

World Bank: Palestinian economy in decline Read More »

With the help of Knesset members, Women of the Wall get to pray

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If ever there were a gathering of Women of the Wall that was going to spark a wider conflict, Tuesday’s would have been the one.

For each of the past several months, police have detained members of the women’s prayer group during their monthly Rosh Chodesh services for wearing tallit prayer shawls at the site, in contravention of Kotel rules. At last month’s service marking the beginning of the Hebrew month of Adar, Jerusalem police arrested 10 women, including the sister and niece of American comedian Sarah Silverman, for disturbing public order.

For this month’s service on Tuesday, three members of Knesset would be coming. American Jews were planning solidarity rallies. And haredi Orthodox Jews were planning to put up a fight.

“Save us!” read posters hung in Israeli haredi neighborhoods, exhorting men and women to show up at the Wall at 7 a.m. Tuesday to oppose Women of the Wall’s service. “The Western Wall will be trampled and desecrated by a group of women called ‘Women of the Wall,’ who wish to desecrate the Wall on Tuesday. Anyone who attributes importance to the place that God’s spirit will never leave will come to protest and cry out!”

Women of the Wall Chairwoman Anat Hoffman lodged a formal complaint with police Sunday alleging “incitement of violence against Women of the Wall” over the unsigned posters, known in Yiddish as pashkevillim.

This time, however, the women were allowed to pray largely undisturbed and without harassment by the police.

When 7 o'clock rolled around, only a few dozen haredim were there to protest the women, and the police were prepared. A few officers kept the haredi group away from the mechitzah barrier that separates men and women, and a few more police officers stood with Women of the Wall, who numbered more than 100.

Most of them — including Knesset members Stav Shaffir of the Labor Party, and Michal Rozin and Tamar Zandberg of Meretz — wore prayer shawls. But no one was detained or arrested, despite the 2003 Israeli Supreme Court ruling upholding a ban on women wearing tefillin or tallit prayer shawls at the site, or reading from a Torah scroll.

The Knesset members used their immunity to enter the area with their prayer shawls, while other women hid them in bags or under layers of clothing to get them inside the plaza.

The biggest disturbances the women had to deal with were a few rounds of haredim chanting and singing “They will devise a plan and it will be foiled” — taken from a prayer cursing enemies of the Jews. Later in the service, a woman stood in front of the group and yelled “For shame!” several times.

Other than that, the Women of the Wall prayed their complete service complete with self-assured singing.

“For 24 years, the Women of the Wall have been praying at a site sacred to the Jewish people and for years they have been stopped just because they seek to pray in their own way,” Shaffir, the Labor Knesset member, wrote on her Facebook page. “This morning, following hate banners in the haredi press, I joined them. At first we were prevented from entering the square on the grounds we were disturbing the order but there is nothing that 100 women armed with a shawl can't do.”

The rabbi of the Western Wall, Shmuel Rabinowitz, condemned Tuesday's prayer service. In a statement issued to media, he said the women brought “brothers against brothers in unnecessary confrontation” and noted that the wall next to Robinson's Arch has been designated as the area for women's prayer services.

“The Western Wall is the only place shared by all the people of Israel — and it is not the place to decide or express a world view,” Rabinowitz said. “I urge anyone for whom the Wall is dear to do whatever he can to keep disputes outside the plaza, and leave the people of Israel one place where there are no demonstrations, clashes and hatred.”

A spokeswoman for Women of the Wall, Shira Pruce, told JTA that she does not expect the group’s success on Tuesday to establish a precedent at the Western Wall. She surmised that the police didn’t want to arrest the Knesset members or cause a stir just before President Obama’s visit to Jerusalem next week.

Police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld confirmed to JTA that no arrests were made because of the presence of the Knesset members, whom he noted have certain immunity from arrest or bodily searches.

“We'll deal with upcoming events with sensitivity,” Rosenfeld pledged.

Meanwhile, supporters in New York, Washington, San Francisco and Cleveland held their own rallies in support of Women of the Wall. At a demonstration late Monday in front of the Israeli Embassy in Washington, some 125 participants, including children, prayed and sang with guitars and tambourines. The women raised their arms to hold aloft prayer shawls in a show of solidarity with their Israeli counterparts.

“The words ‘A woman was arrested for wearing a tallit' should not be coming out of Israel,” said Rabbi Esther Lederman of Temple Micah in Washington, who took her 1-year-old son to the protest.

A letter from Anat Hoffman, chairwoman of Woman of the Wall, was read aloud to the Washington crowd.

“I want to hug each of you. I want to shake everyone’s hand,” Hoffman said in the letter read by Judy Gelmen, chair of Ameinu, one of the organizers of the Washington event. “We are one in conviction that there is more than one way to be a Jew in Israel and at the Wall.”

Embassy spokesman Aaron Sagui, who went out to greet the protesters, promised to convey the group’s message to Jerusalem.

With the help of Knesset members, Women of the Wall get to pray Read More »