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May 21, 2012

How many Jewish votes can Romney get?‎

There are the truisms we already know: Jews is news and all its identical twins. ‎And there’s the fact that no matter how tiny the Jewish community might be – ‎‎1.5-2% of the population – the battle for Jewish votes is extensively reported ‎and analyzed. And there’s also the fact that for Jewish votes to be of any ‎significance come Election Day, the margin between candidates has to be very ‎small – very, very small – and in very specific areas.

Jews in Ohio are 3% of the ‎vote, George W. Bush won the 2004 election by 2.1% of Ohio votes. This means ‎that even in the closest of elections you need all the Jews to vote as one bloc to ‎make a difference. That is never going to happen, as even the most optimistic ‎‎(among Republican operatives) and the most pessimistic (among Democratic ‎operatives) put the percentage of Jewish voters in play no higher than 15-18% ‎in addition to the 22-26% that voted for John McCain in 2008.‎

I’m spending the week in Washington, and talking about the 2012 Jewish vote ‎is one of the greatest joys I entertain here. I ask a lot of questions, and get a lot ‎of answers, some contradictory, some surprisingly not. The number of Jewish ‎votes in play is one topic on which I concentrated. Assuming that around 25% of ‎American Jews voted for Obama in 2008 (very few knowledgeable observers still ‎believe the 78% exit poll number of 2008), how high can Mitt Romney climb? If ‎the votes in play are no more than 18% – and that is the most ambitious estimate ‎I was able to extract – Romney’s ceiling is 43%. But for him to get to that number ‎one needs to give him every single vote of every single undecided Jewish voter. ‎Realistic? Not quite.‎

If Romney gets half the votes of undecided Jews, he’d be at 34%. That is, if you ‎agree with the 25% estimate of the McCain vote, and the 18% estimate of votes ‎in play – the highest estimate I got. If you go by the exit poll (22% for McCain) ‎and add to it the lowest votes in play estimate I got – 12% – the Romney ceiling is ‎much lower, 34%, and the likely Romney achievement (if he gets half of the ‎Jewish vote-in-play) will be around 28% of the Jewish vote. ‎

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And all of it doesn’t matter much – but is interesting nonetheless. For the ‎second time this year, we’ve asked our Israel Factor experts to take an educated ‎guess and tell us what they think the Jewish vote is going to look like. When we ‎did it back in January, they predicted that an Obama-Romney race would ‎produce a 34% vote for the Republican nominee. But a similar question in May’s ‎Factor survey produced a much more subdued prediction: 29.5% for Romney. ‎Pretty close to the answers I got from experts, activists, pollsters and other ‎friends in Washington. The highest prediction of any panelist was 35% for ‎Romney, the lowest 25%. But most of the panelists agreed that Romney would ‎come close to 30%. ‎

Will 30% be an achievement for him, or would it not? Let me parse for you the ‎probable spin:‎

It means nothing: The whole country voted for Romney in greater numbers than ‎in 2008, and so did the Jews. Nothing to be surprised about or find unique.‎

It means a lot: When was the last time that any Republican nominee got 30% of ‎the vote or more? It was Reagan in 1984. If Romney is able to get more votes ‎than McCain, Bush (II, twice), Dole, Bush (I), and repeat the 1984 Reagan vote, ‎this is no small thing. ‎

It means nothing: And how many states did this shift of 5-8% of the Jewish vote ‎flip for Romney? None (Yes, I’m talking a risk here, and predicting that no state ‎will be as close as to make 5% of the Jewish vote the decisive factor. ‎

It means a lot: The Jews are moving rightward, slowly but surely (take a look at ‎our Jewish Party Identification meter). Jewish donors will also be moving ‎rightward. Jewish votes might not count a lot, but Jewish money, activism and ‎influence does count. Romney getting to 30% means Obama losing 5% – and ‎this, if estimates and educated guesses are accurate (which I tend to doubt – ‎S.R.), means a fair amount of money. ‎

How many Jewish votes can Romney get?‎ Read More »

The Israel Factor 05.2012, Full Statistics

Please rank the two presidential candidates – Barack Obama and Mitt ‎Romney – from 1 (totally disagree) to 10 (totally agree) on the following ‎issues:

Issue

Obama

Romney

Is working very hard to show how friendly he is towards ‎Israel

8

8.62

Is ‎likely to nominate a Secretary of State whom Israel isn’t going to ‎appreciate

4.75

5

Is likely to be very tough on the Israeli government after election ‎day

5.87

4.25

Is likely to release Jonathan Pollard from ‎jail

2.71

3

Better understands Israel’s position regarding Iran

7.12

7.62

Is more likely to ‎convince Israel not to attack ‎Iran

7.37

6.62

Please take a wild guess at a question we asked exactly half a year ago: ‎what would be the percentage of Jewish voters voting for the Republican ‎nominee:

Nominee Percentage

Romney

29.5

Looking ahead for 2012, please rate the following presidential candidates ‎on scale of 1 (bad for Israel) to 10 (good for Israel):

Candidate

Score

Barack Obama

7.25

Mitt Romney

7.5

The Israel Factor 05.2012, Full Statistics Read More »

Netanyahu: ‘Fatal mistake’ to concede sacred sites

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday it would be a “fatal mistake” ever to give up control over Jerusalem’s holy sites.

His remarks, in a parliamentary speech, went a little further than Israel’s longtime policy of viewing Jerusalem, a city at the heart of Middle East conflict, as its “indivisible capital”.

Addressing a debate marking 45 years since Israel captured and annexed the city’s eastern sector, in a move never recognized internationally, Netanyahu said:

“Whoever proposes we take the heart of Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and take it out of our hands, and that this would bring about peace, I say not only is this a mistake but a fatal mistake.”

Netanyahu said that sites holy to Judaism, Islam and Christianity enjoyed a “wonder of inter-religious peace that is maintained thanks to Jerusalem’s unity under Israeli sovereignty.”

“The Temple Mount is in our hands and … it shall remain in our hands,” Netanyahu added.

The Temple Mount, a site in Jerusalem’s old walled city, is revered by Jews as the place where two biblical temples once stood. The area also houses two of Islam’s holiest shrines, the al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.

Palestinians want east Jerusalem as capital of a future state in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, territory Israel also captured in a 1967 war.

Western-sponsored negotiations hit deadlock months ago in a dispute over Jewish settlement building in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.

In a related development, Israel’s parliament passed a law on Monday granting tax incentives to organizations seen as encouraging settlement in Israel and occupied territory, in addition to tax breaks already offered to settlers in the past.

Writing by Allyn Fisher-Ilan; Editing by Robin Pomeroy

Netanyahu: ‘Fatal mistake’ to concede sacred sites Read More »

Opinion: When Israel lacks leadership, we should speak up

When a family member behaves self-destructively, what do you do? Do you become an apologist, an enabler, or do you call him out? Do you blame everyone else but him, or do you intervene? Do you sit back and just hope things will improve on their own, or do you take urgent action?

Israel is our family member. Most American Jews feel that way. My parents, Ethel and Philip Klutznick, instilled in their children a concern for and support of the young and emerging State of Israel. They first took my brothers and me there in 1959, when I was 16 years old. I remember meeting David Ben- Gurion, Israel’s founder and first prime minister. I have always been proud of the Jewish state. But it must be said: Israel’s leaders are giving Israelis—and American Jews—less and less of which to be proud and increasingly more to be concerned about.

Take democracy and the rule of law. Like most American Jews, I’ve always admired Israel’s democratic institutions. It has a Supreme Court that for years served as an international beacon of jurisprudence.  When an Israeli prime minister strays, he is forced to resign, and when a president is found guilty, he goes to prison. They are not above the law.

Yes, it is a relatively young democracy and it is operating under stress. But nothing can excuse the current Israeli government’s disdain for both the letter and the spirit of the law when it comes to unauthorized construction of settlements in the West Bank, in violation of Israeli law, often on land privately owned by Palestinians. Never before has an Israeli government so openly thumbed its nose at the law and at the Supreme Court in an effort to launder illegal actions of the settlers. Last week the Netanyahu government’s actions prompted leading Israeli jurists to sign a petition titled “the demise of the rule of law.”

Take Israel’s active and robust civil society. Groups such as Peace Now, who fight for peace, or groups that fight for Israeli minority rights or for Palestinian human rights, are faced with an avalanche of bills and laws, some endorsed by the government and some passed by the Knesset, which target Israeli non-profit groups that criticize government policies. Some bills target Israel’s Arab minority. Other bills target freedom of speech and even the authority of the Supreme Court.

Israel’s ruling coalition came to power through elections and presumes to represent most Israelis. An Israeli government, however, that is trying to turn majority rule into majority tyranny undermines democracy.  Don’t take my word for it. Visit the website of the Israeli Democracy Institute or the Association for Civil Rights in Israel.

Or take the government’s lackadaisical approach to reining in militant settlers who attack not only Palestinian civilians but also senior Israeli officers in the West Bank. It is the extremist settlers’ way of deterring the removal of settlement outposts that were built in violation of Israeli law, and it works. Israeli officials have said repeatedly that they are reluctant to enforce the law in the West Bank because they fear the violent wrath of the settlers.

Israel faces many challenges, and I know there is no silver bullet to address them all. But I also know that Israel’s most appalling failure is not ridding itself of the occupation and achieving a two-state peace settlement with the Palestinians. Sure, the Palestinians bear a part of the responsibility for the diplomatic stalemate, but as President Shimon Peres and former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin said recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu could have struck a two-state deal with Palestinian Authority President Abbas but chose not to. By denying Israelis the peace they deserve, Netanyahu and his government are bringing the Jewish state closer to becoming a binational state, closer to the destruction of the Zionist dream: a Jewish, democratic state in the land of Israel.

American Jews don’t pay taxes in Israel. We don’t serve in its army. We don’t vote there. But it doesn’t mean that we don’t have a say.  We have not only the right but the duty to support our brothers and sisters in Israel, such as Peace Now (Shalom Achshav), who disagree with the path their leaders are charting for them. We are our bothers’ keepers. We must act accordingly.

(James B. Klutznick, the co-founder and vice chairman of the Chicago-based Senior Lifestyle Corp., is the new chair of Americans for Peace Now.)

Opinion: When Israel lacks leadership, we should speak up Read More »

Vandals hit Philadelphia synagogue

Officials at a Philadelphia synagogue are calling a BB gun attack on the synagogue a hate crime.

“What else could it be?” Maxine Goldman, co-president of Congregation Ner Zedek-Ezreth, said Monday morning of the May 10 attack in which dozens of BBs reportedly were shot at the building.

The attack occured while about 130 people were attending a synagogue event.

Goldman said two police officers came within minutes of being called that evening, but detectives have not yet returned to investigate further. She said windows, the door and door frame of the building were damaged.

Synagogues officials are awaiting an insurance estimate for the damage.

“Quite a bit of work needs to done,” Goldman said. “We’re hesitant” that it might happen again.

Three years ago, the synagogue was defaced with swastikas.

Vandals hit Philadelphia synagogue Read More »

The Israel Factor 05.2012, Questionnaire

Please rank the two presidential candidates – Barack Obama and Mitt ‎Romney – from 1 (totally disagree) to 10 (totally agree) on the following ‎issues:

Issue

Obama

Romney

Is working very hard to show how friendly he is towards ‎Israel

 

 

Is ‎likely to nominate a Secretary of State whom Israel isn’t going to ‎appreciate

 

 

Is likely to be very tough on the Israeli government after election ‎day

 

 

Is likely to release Jonathan Pollard from ‎jail

 

 

Better understands Israel’s position regarding Iran

 

 

Is more likely to ‎convince Israel not to attack ‎Iran

 

 

Please take a wild guess at a question we asked exactly half a year ago: ‎what would be the percentage of Jewish voters voting for the Republican ‎nominee:

Nominee Percentage

Romney

 

Looking ahead for 2012, please rate the following presidential candidates ‎on scale of 1 (bad for Israel) to 10 (good for Israel):

Candidate

Score

Barack Obama

 

Mitt Romney

 

The Israel Factor 05.2012, Questionnaire Read More »

Woman who lived on same N.Y. street for 100 years dies

Lillian Jacobs, who was recently featured in a New York Times article for living on the same block for 100 years, has died.

Jacobs, who moved to East 84th Street on Manhattan’s Upper East Side when she was 2, died Sunday on the same street at age 102. Her story was reported last month in a Times story titled “100 Years of Staying Put.”

Jacobs arrived on East 84th in 1911 or 1912 with her parents, who owned a candy store in the building. She has lived in five homes on the block, all within 1,200 feet of one another.

For many years Jacobs worked at Ramaz, a Modern Orthodox Jewish day school in the area. Though her title was assistant to the principal, Rabbi Haskel Lookstein, the current principal and founder’s son, told The New York Times that it does not begin to describe her work at the school.

“She was the registrar, the admissions officer, the fund-raiser, the director of food services, the nurse, the school psychologist, the parent liaison—I’m not gilding the lily here,” said Lookstein.

Woman who lived on same N.Y. street for 100 years dies Read More »

New Bulgarian conversion course offering a pathway to ‘official’ Judaism

As a child, Gabrielle Pavlova pored over pictures of her Jewish paternal grandmother, who died decades before Pavlova was born.

The family had no other tie to Judaism, and Pavlova was fascinated. She delved into her Jewish heritage, read books and, ultimately, wrote her master’s thesis on Polish Jewish literature. Her Jewish roots, she says, were “very close to my heart and soul.”

But technically, Pavlova’s not Jewish, even according to the Reform movement in Europe, where patrilineal descent is not accepted.

At 20, Pavlova asked Bulgaria’s chief rabbi if she could convert. He said there was no such program and she should just go home and study on her own.

Now, 12 years later, she has another option.

Last month, Sofia’s new Orthodox rabbi, Joshua Ahrens of the Sofia Synagogue, launched a religious conversion course in the Bulgarian capital geared toward people like Pavlova.

“What I like about this community is that maybe only a handful of people are observant in an Orthodox way, but so many people are interested in Judaism,” Ahrens said. “They are excited. They want to know more.”

Decades of Communist rule helped wipe out traditional Jewish observance in Bulgaria, but in the 20 years since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Bulgaria’s Sephardic Jews have reemerged as a community. Today an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 Jews, including people like Pavlova, live in Bulgaria—mostly in Sofia, where the Jewish community has 1,000 active members. Though most are thoroughly secular and many do not qualify as Jews according to halachah, or Jewish law, the community organization is officially Orthodox.

That has created an incongruity where people like Pavlova and even Sofia community president Alexander Oscar are not officially recognized as Jews and cannot partake in religious rituals, marry as Jews or read from the Torah.

Ahrens’ new course is a first in that it offers Bulgaria’s “unofficial” Jewish community members a path to official conversion.

“I tell Rav Josh that 12 years is a long time,” Pavlova, 32, said during a conversion seminar in Sofia earlier this month. “For me, the test of time has shown how much I want this. I want it more and more and more.”

It remains an open question whether the graduates of Ahrens’ course, which is in its second month, will be recognized as Jewish by Israel’s Orthodox Chief Rabbinate. But many participants say they’re not converting to earn the right to immigrate to Israel but to be recognized as Jewish within their own community.

“For many it is not important that they are accepted elsewhere,” Ahrens told JTA. “They want to make sure they are accepted here, for Jewish children and to be married and called up to the Torah.”

Oscar says there’s a sense of embarrassment and confusion among young community members when they discover that they are not technically Jews.

“I passed difficult years as a child having to say my mother is not Jewish,” said Oscar, who unable to have a synagogue wedding, married his wife in a Jewish ceremony under a chuppah in a Sofia park with a friend officiating rather than a rabbi. “It falls on the leaders to make sure Jewish children not only feel Jewish but are proud of what they are.”

Post-Communist Europe poses a unique dilemma for Orthodox Judaism, where tradition dictates that outsiders generally should be discouraged from taking on the faith. For half a century Eastern European Jews, who survived attempts at their extermination by the Nazis, lived under Communist regimes that attempted to wipe out religious identity. When they emerged from communism in 1990, Eastern European Jews were cultivated by Diaspora Jews and Israelis who tried to nurture their Jewish identity and helped put Jewish communal structures into place.

Now some Orthodox Jews say global Jewry has a responsibility to help these communities complete their journey of revival by enabling conversions for those members who because of intermarriage by their parents are not halachically Jewish.

“This is a first in Jewish history,” said Ari Greenspan, an American-born Israeli dentist who helped organize the Bulgarian conversion course. “Never before did you have children of Jews not practicing for generations who perceive themselves as Jewish and want to come back to Judaism.”

Greenspan’s inspiration for establishing the conversion course came a few years ago during a Jewish youth conference. When it was time to read from the Torah, Greenspan turned to young community leader Martin Levy to read first.

But Levy said he couldn’t. He wasn’t halachically Jewish.

It wasn’t until Ahrens, a German, was hired by the Sofia Synagogue’s board in late 2011 and began reaching out to introduce the community to religious life that the course took real form. Sponsored by the Jewish community, the course drew about 20 interested people. Ahrens holds one weekly evening class, which is filmed and posted online for people outside Sofia. Once every few months he runs a weekend seminar like the one in early May.

Both Ahrens and Greenspan agree that conversions will have to comply with all Orthodox requirements, including circumcision and ritual immersion in a mikvah.

Some Bulgarians question the necessity of a formal ritual to solidify their identity.

“For me, the exam is not going to make me more Jewish than I am,” said Levy, 24, who grew up in Jewish community programs and is now on the board of directors. Still, Levy said he knows the material and might just take the final exam.

Setting up a beit din—a three-rabbi panel to conduct the final exam for converts—is a particular challenge. Ahrens and Greenspan will have to look outside Bulgaria to find three Orthodox rabbis for the beit din and are waiting until the yearlong course is further along to demonstrate clear commitment by candidates.

Neither has contacted the Israeli Rabbinate, which determines for Israel who is a Jew, because they don’t feel their course would be well received.

Rabbi Seth Farber, founder of the Jerusalem-based ITIM, an organization that helps Israelis navigate issues involving the Chief Rabbinate, argues that the Israeli Rabbinate has a responsibility to help bring Eastern European Jews back into the fold.

“Israel right now is not interested in taking on those kinds of responsibilities,” Farber said. “And I think that is a squandered historic opportunity that is only going to exist for one generation.”

Rabbi Refael Dayan, who is in charge of external conversion issues for the Israeli Rabbinate, said he had not been contacted regarding conversion in Bulgaria.

“Who says they are even Jewish?” Dayan said. “They could be full-fledged gentiles. Someone has to check them.”

In Sofia earlier this month, Tanya Behar scribbled notes furiously during lectures on Jewish signs and symbols. Tanya said she agreed to take the course because her husband, Alberto, a large, boisterous cantor in Plovdiv, just outside Sofia, wanted a ketubah, or Jewish marriage document—and he promised to lose 65 pounds. But she also sees in Judaism a sense of community.

“I want to be part of this Jewish ethic,” she said, “tzedakah, that we are responsible for one another.”

Pavlova is very excited about the conversion course. After years of waiting for an opportunity to convert, she moved from the northern town of Pleven to Sofia two years ago and met a Jewish man. She lights Shabbat candles, bakes challahs and hosts Shabbat meals. She and her partner together read the traveler’s prayer, Tefillat Haderech, when they travel.

Judaism, she said, is at the heart of the couple.

But Pavlova won’t marry or have children until she completes her conversion. Her eyes welled up with tears at the prospect of the beit din. She feels like a runner starting a marathon, she said.

“I know how hard it was to wait 12 years,” Pavlova said. “I wish to give this to my children. I don’t want my children to have to endure this.”

New Bulgarian conversion course offering a pathway to ‘official’ Judaism Read More »

Google donating N.Y. office space to Cornell-Technion school

Google will donate office space to the new applied science graduate school of Cornell University and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology.

Google CEO Larry Page and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced the partnership Monday at a news conference at the company’s New York headquarters. Officials from Cornell and the Haifa-based Technion were on hand.

The high-tech firm will be providing 22,000 square feet of space in a temporary arrangement designed to help the school fulfill its promise of beginning classes this fall.

The CornellNYC Tech school, which was announced last December 2011, was the winning bid in an initiative announced by Bloomberg 18 months ago—also at Google headquarters—to foster collaboration between the public and private sectors here. The joint venture between Cornell and the Technion beat a bid by Stanford University, the alma mater of Page and Google co-founder Sergey Brin.

“This is a major step towards the fulfillment of Mayor Bloomberg’s vision to seed the city with entrepreneurs and start-ups,” said Technion president Peretz Lavie.

Citing Google, The New York Times reported that Cornell will be responsible for most of the costs of operating in the Google building and that the program has to be out by the fall of 2017, when the school’s state-of-the-art Roosevelt Island campus is scheduled to open.

Bloomberg noted in the news conference that New York University, IBM and Cisco are partnering on a similar initiative in Brooklyn.

Google donating N.Y. office space to Cornell-Technion school Read More »

Old Jews Telling Jokes: Harvey Weiner, “Sex Proposition” [VIDEO]