Keeping the faith redirect
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October 22, 2010
A Meta-Post about Meta-Research
… or, How to Love the Null Hypothesis
First, bear with me for an important definition. “Meta” used as a prefix, has come to mean self-reference, or “an X about X”. For example, meta-analysis is an analysis of other analyses. If you are arguing with your boyfriend about how unfairly he argues, you’re having a meta-argument, an argument about other arguments. You with me?
I usually write about a current study in the medical literature, but this week I’m writing about a researcher, John Ioannidis, whose field of study is other medical research. He researches the biases, flaws and errors that shape medical research. He is a meta-researcher, and is a leading expert on the credibility of medical research. Next month’s issue of The Atlantic has a fascinating article about his work (link below). If you have any interest in medicine or science I urge you to read it.
The Atlantic article highlights the many problems in published peer-reviewed medical studies and the reasons that many of the studies’ conclusions are false. So that even doctors who are doing their best to stay current with the latest findings are frequently following misleading information. Once the medical studies are distorted and exaggerated in the general press, it’s no wonder that much of the public believes that medical science is no better than reading tealeaves. How many times have we heard one year that some medicine is a panacea, and the next year that it’s poison? How can we argue against unproven alternative medicine when traditional medicine is constantly self-contradicting?
One way for medicine to reclaim its credibility is for doctors to more clearly explain why we know what we think we know, and to be honest about the many things that we don’t know. Another way for the public to regain trust in medical science is for the general media and the public to become more sophisticated consumers of scientific findings, which is to say to build a more scientifically literate public.
Which brings me to the purpose of these weekly posts. Obviously the main purpose is to highlight some new and hopefully interesting finding. But a longer-term purpose is to teach all of you how to separate important findings from hype, speculation from evidence, correlation from cause. Obviously none of us are going to become statisticians or experts in evaluating scientific experiments, but here are three suggestions that will go a long way to helping you ignore bad studies.
Ignore all non-randomized studies. John Ioannidis in the Atlantic article also agrees with that strategy. Not sure what the difference is between an observational study and a randomized study? See the link my post on epidemiology, below. This simple step will allow you to blissfully forget about 90% of the health related hype you hear.
If possible, read the original scientific article. If you read a scintillating newspaper article about an exciting new finding, try to find the original scientific publication. The news story will frequently cite the scientific journal, and you’ll usually be able to at least find the abstract online. Read it. You may not understand all the statistics, but you’ll have a good sense of what the researchers did and the conclusions they drew, which may be much more modest than what the newspaper is suggesting.
Practice skepticism. The null hypothesis is the assertion that two things have nothing to do with each other. For example, if I’m trying to prove that eating carrots cures insomnia, the null hypothesis is “eating carrots has no effect on insomnia.” The null hypothesis is what scientists have to disprove to show a connection between any two things. People love making connections. Our brain has evolved to believe in the interrelatedness of things. We unfortunately instinctively reject the null hypothesis. If I remember once that I ate carrots with dinner and slept well, then I may have an overwhelmingly compelling belief that the carrots were the cause of my uninterrupted sleep, even though the two are likely coincidental. We should remember that most pairs of things have nothing to do with each other, which is to say, the null hypothesis is usually right. Even for pairs of things that are tightly linked in the popular imagination (like cell phones and cancer, or pesticides and health problems) the scientific link is frequently nonexistent. We should assume that things are not interconnected unless we are presented with repeated large randomized trials showing that one thing is linked to the other.
The problem is that skepticism is hard to do, since our brain is wired for belief, not for skepticism. That means that we all believe things that are false, but we don’t know which of our beliefs these are. And since science is a human endeavor it progresses slowly and takes wrong turns and frequently disproves what it earlier believed. But we don’t have a better tool for getting at the truth than science. So with all its contradictions, evidence-based medicine is still the best defense against quackery.
So I have to live with the fact that many of the conclusions of my posts are probably wrong, but it’ll take years to figure out which. But I hope the conclusion of this post is true. It’s a meta-conclusion.
(Thanks to Timo K. for pointing me to the Atlantic Article.)
Learn more:
The Atlantic article: “>Ignore Epidemiology, Maybe It’ll Go Away
Important legal mumbo jumbo:
Anything you read on the web should be used to supplement, not replace, your doctor’s advice. Anything that I write is no exception. I’m a doctor, but I’m not your doctor despite the fact that you read or comment on my posts. Leaving a comment on a post is a wonderful way to enter into a discussion with other readers, but I will not respond to comments (just because of time constraints).
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Court removes ‘co-conspirator’ tag from Muslim groups
In a decision that could inhibit efforts to stigmatize some Islamic groups, a U.S. appeals court ordered that a lower court’s reference to a group’s association with Hamas be expunged.
The New Orleans-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit released its decision on an appeal from the North American Islamic Trust on Wednesday. It was first reported that day by Politico’s Josh Gerstein.
Last year, Jorge Solis, a U.S. District Court judge in Dallas, ruled that NAIT and 245 other entities and individuals had their Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination violated when prosecutors listed them as unindicted co-conspirators in the federal case against the Holy Land Foundation, which had been charged with providing material assistance to Hamas.
Among the other groups vindicated by Solis were the Council on American Islamic Relations and the Islamic Society of North America.
The government acknowledged that not sealing the list was an oversight, and further said its intent was to list the groups and individuals as “joint venturers,” which suggests a weaker association than “unindicted co-conspirator” and does not imply that the entity had knowledge of the alleged crimes.
NAIT, which owns a number of mosques, nonetheless appealed the decision because Solis ordered the decision sealed—apparently in a bid to protect the reputation of those on the list. CAIR and ISNA did not join this appeal.
The three-judge appeals panel ordered Solis’ decision unsealed and expunged one reference to past NAIT associations with Hamas, but left in another.
By clearing CAIR and ISNA of “unindicted co-conspirator” status, the unsealing of Solis’ decision could have political consequences, as a number of conservative and pro-Israel groups had used the label to tar politicians associated with the groups.
After a 2007 trial ended in a mistrial, a jury in 2008 convicted the Holy Land Foundation and five of its officers of violating U.S. laws banning funding for designated terrorist groups.
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The endless Mel Gibson hangover
I’m sick of Mel Gibson.
I don’t care that he’s making headlines once again, as entertainment Websites tout another “Mel Gibson controversy.” This time, is appears the cast and crew of “Hangover 2” were up in arms over the possibility of Gibson joining the cast. Gee, I wonder why. Zach Galifianakis, who as far as I can tell is not Jewish but Greek Orthodox, took his disdain public.
According to TheWrap.com:
Galifianakis was rumored to be upset with the decision to cast Gibson in a cameo, explaining to Comedy Death-Ray podcast host Scott Aukerman that he’s turned down several projects on moral grounds, saying: “But a movie you’re acting in, you don’t have a lot of control — you just show up and vomit your lines out. I’m not the boss. I’m in a deep protest right now with a movie I’m working on, up in arms about something. But I can’t get the guys to [listen] … I’m not making any leeway.”
Galifianakis cut Aukerman off with an abrupt warning sound as the host began to mention the film’s title, but after Aukerman pressed, “I know you’re filming The Hhhhhhhh … ” Galifianakis admitted, “It has something to do with a movie I’m working on, yeah. I’ll tell you about it later. It’s very frustrating.”
What’s also frustrating is that Mel Gibson still matters. We all know he’s a wacky anti-Semitic, misogynistic, vulgar, possibly alcoholic, psychologically unstable has-been movie star. Can we get over him now?
A Jewish Journal archive search for “Mel Gibson” brings up 204 results. In the past nine months alone, “Gibson” has appeared in ten Jewish Journal headlines. I am guilty, along with many others who are obsessed by his strange psychotic behavior, but I’m reaching my breaking point. Short of him murdering someone or making aliyah to Israel, I don’t care.
Although I do wonder why we keep drawing water from the Gibson well. No matter how much communal shadenfreude we can muster, it won’t change him; he is already a sad parody of himself. What I fear is that it’s changing us, and every time we talk about him, we give him new life.
Mel Gibson won’t get what he truly deserves until he is forgotten.
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Kosher, Free-Range Turkey for Thanksgiving
If you will it, it is no dream, Herzl said.
And so: Starting this year, people who care about the way their meat is raised, and the ay it tastes, can finally, easily, get natural, humanely-raised Heritage breed kosher turkey in Los Angeles.
KOL Foods, an East coast company that has pioneered the sourcing of good meat, is now shipping their Thanksgiving turkeys West. You’ll need to pre-order (by November 10), and there’s one pick up point in the Pico Robertson area. Basically, it is easier to get pot in this town than a well-raised kosher animal.
You’ll pay a bit more too (the price is TBD). I can detour here and go into a long analysis of why food costs too little, not too much, but that doesn’t ease the stress on your wallet. Suffice it to say that a couple years ago we ate a Heritage kosher breed turkey from Kosher Conscience in New York, and it really was good. (I mean, it was still turkey, so keep your expectations in check).
To order your bird, contact {encode=”EFB369@yahoo.com” title=”Evelyn Baron”} at Neshama Gourmet Kosher Foods (310-559-5750). Evelyn is working closely with KOL all year, turning into a one-woman underground railroad of well-raised animals.
I’ll update this site to list—happily—any other outlets for humane kosher birds (or beasts) in LA.
Meantime, enjoy the information on the Amish farmer who raises the birds back east. Pardon the expression, but it;‘s almost overkill:
Aaron King, Our Amish Turkey and Duck farmer
Our turkeys are not your normal bird. They are organic-raised on the pastures of Aaron and Roman’s Amish farms in Lancaster Country, PA especially for KOL Foods. While conventional turkeys have such large breasts that they have trouble walking, KOL Foods’ turkeys are reminiscent of a time before industrialization when poultry was free to roam. Our turkeys live turkey lives. Aaron provides them with all the staples: ample food, drink, protection and good old-fashioned freedom. The turkeys live on the farm’s pastureland where a barn provides them with shelter but does not keep them contained. The birds find fresh grass and grubs – in a bird’s eye view: heaven.
Aaron understands their thinking; he also sees his farm as heaven. Aaron started caring for animals on his parents’ dairy farm when he was only three years old. He likes the diversity of raising turkeys, ducks, chickens and guinea fowl because “there’s always something different going on.” He bought his own small poultry farm two and a half years ago after renting land for years. The values that farming instills – responsibility, hard work and delayed gratification – are important lessons that Aaron wants to pass on to his children. Aaron’s wife, Annie, and seven year old son, Emmanuel, tend the egg-laying chickens while their three year old son, Samuel, helps take care of their driving horse Lizzie and their dog Trixy. “On the farm you learn fast that a job done half isn’t worth doing. That’s important for my boys to know.” If the animals on a farm aren’t well cared for, they suffer – something that the boys know is not okay. Out on the small farms of Lancaster County, children care for animals and, in turn, animals teach farm kids about the circle of life.
In the age of industrial meat production, we have forgotten that the health of our bodies isn’t just in what we eat; it is in what what we eat eats. For our turkeys to be healthy for us, they need to eat healthy grass and healthy grubs grown on healthy soils. In a wonderful synergy of nature, not only are pasture-raised turkeys healthy for us and healthy for the earth, they are deliciously rich in flavor. They taste like turkey was meant to taste.
So let’s have a truly special Thanksgiving. Eat consciously. Know your farmer and where your meal comes from and be thankful in bringing them to your table.
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Score card for Jonathan Pollard: Ask your Rep!
I have been pushing for a letter of clemency for Jonathan Pollard that Rep. Barney Frank was circulating to members of the U.S. House of Representatives to ask President Obama to extend clemency to Mr. Pollard. My information is that it was presented to President Obama with thirty signatures: all of them Democrats, none Republicans. I have been trying to get Mark Kirk, a Republican representative running for Senate in Illinois to sign, to no avail. Rep. Eric Cantor has refused to sign it; Minister Hagee and Gary Bauer – two fundamentalist Christians – tried to get him to sign it, but he wouldn’t. I am gratified that my own Rep., Jan Schakowsky did sign it, and that the Republican candidates for House in my area, Joel Polak and David Ratowitz as well as Democratic senate candidate Alexi Gionoulias have all agree that they would support clemency. Unfortunately, Rep. Mike Quigley – in our shul’s district – did not sign the letter and has not gotten back to me with his position after weeks of emails and phone calls. Can you please call your Rep, or the opposing candidate for Rep in your district and find out what their position is on this?
Many people feel that the only important issue is Israel and the Jewish people. If so, find out if the candidate that everyone is proclaiming is so pro-Israel or pro-Jewish is supporting this request for clemency. In my state, Mark Kirk has been hailed as the best person for Israel: So why can’t his campaign answer me regarding his lack of support for clemency for Jonathan Pollard who was acting as an Israeli agent for the sake of Israel, and the lives of Jews in Israel. Even if it was a crime by American law, he has been punished more than anyone else who has spied for a friendly country, and the charges that he caused the capture of 11 Americans by the USSR have long been shown to be incorrect – it was the Russian mole Aldrich Ames who compromised their lives.
On erev Shabbat as we read of Avraham’s plea to God for justice for Sodom and Gemora, let’s start demanding of our politicians – from whatever party – that they start showing the courage to really stand up for Israel and fair justice, not just when it suits them.
Rabbi Asher Lopatin
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Mike Huckabee: Defund NPR for violating Juan Williams’ first amendment right
Former Arkansas governor and Fox talk show host Mike Huckabee’s Mike Huckabee: Defund NPR for violating Juan Williams’ first amendment right Read More »
Israeli chess grandmaster achieves world record
An Israeli chess grandmaster bested an Iranian’s world record by playing 527 ranked chess players simultaneously in Tel Aviv and winning 87 percent of the games.
Alik Gershon began playing the concurrent matches on Thursday morning in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square in an attempt to break the Guinness simultaneous chess world record set in 2009 by the Iranian grandmaster Morteza Mahjoub. Gershon completed the games by early Friday.
The event is sponsored by the Jewish Agency and the Israel Chess Federation to mark the 20th anniversary of the mass aliyah from the former Soviet Union. Natan Sharansky, a former prisoner of Zion and now the chairman of the Jewish Agency, attended.
Many of Gershon’s opponents, who are registered and ranked by the Israel Chess Federation, as per the requirements of the Guinness Book of Records, are immigrants from the former Soviet Union. Gershon, 30, is a native of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, who immigrated to Israel in 1990.
Public figures are among those watching the matches, which are under the close scrutiny of a judge representing the Guinness Book of Records. To set the world record, Gershon must win at least 80 percent of the games. Mahjoub’s record is 500 games.
Jewish Agency Chairman Natan Sharansky played a match with Gershon at the beginning of the event.
Gershon began to learn chess at age 2 and by 5 was competing. He became an Israeli youth champion, won the world championship in 1994 for youth up to age 14, and became Israeli champion in 2000.
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Bible.com investor sues over unrealized profits
James Solakian, who in 2001 acquired 28 percent of the shares in Bible.com, Inc., has sued the company’s directors for failing to maximize profits. This according to Reuters:
The lawsuit cites a valuation done by a potential purchaser that estimated bible.com could be worth more than dictionary.com, which recently sold for more than $100 million.
The domain name was registered by Roy Spencer “Bud” Miller, an Arizona minister who secured it in 1996 for $50. Soon after, he was offered $100,000 for the location, according to court documents.
Miller refused, stating he was entrusted to run the site for a sacred purpose, according to court documents.
Miller, along with his wife Betty, brought in a marketing firm to help them develop the site. They raised money by forming Bible.com Inc and issuing stock.
The company’s business plan stated “it is the goal of the board of directors of Bible.com to become very, very profitable,” according to court documents. The business was also to be governed in accordance with Christian business principles.
Not that there is anything unChristian about turning a few loafs of bread into enough to feed a few thousand.
Thanks for the link, Dennis.
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Daniel Pearl remembered in Karachi
The annual Daniel Pearl music day was held at the US consulate in violence-addled Karachi, Pakistan. It was tight security so unfortunately the kids who should have come from all over the city to attend and learn about him, had to read about it in the newspaper. The closest they will get unless things improve. I had the event covered for our newspaper. Our reporter Mahnoor Sherazee was largely disappointed with the performances and wanted to just paint a pretty picture. But I told her that she had to tell it like it was. Good or bad. The National Academy of Performing Arts or NAPA students were invited this year. This was a good decision as it gives them a chance to connect with an important cause and philosophy. For me the most depressing part is that these music days can’t be held out in a huge park with thousands of excited young boys and girls in Karachi coming to attend for free. When I went on the Daniel Pearl fellowship, San Francisco was a stop. I went to a concert in the park where a young violinist associated with the foundation played. There were at least a thousand people. I hope it’s like this some day here too.
This is the newspaper report. You can find it at http://tribune.com.pk
NAPA’s Saima Zakir holds up an otherwise lukewarm evening
KARACHI: Sur, taal, guitar and sitar came together in perfect harmony as students and graduates of the National Academy of Performing Arts (NAPA) performed at the eighth annual musical tribute to Daniel Pearl called Harmony for Humanity.
The concert this year hosted by US Consul General William J Martin at his residence paled, however, in comparison to those of previous years. The night began with violinist Saeed Ahmad’s solo performance of the soundtrack of the 1965 romantic drama Doctor Zhivago, but it received a lukewarm response from the crowd.
The second performance, a cover song “While my guitar gently weeps”, originally played by the Beatles’ George Harrison started out promising a great deal more than it delivered. Another cover, this time Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan’s “Tu Mera Dil” was at best a good try but failed to light the much-needed spark in the evening.
This was followed by an original item titled “Bolo bolo tum ye kya jano” that was a good attempt to rope in the crowd, especially with its commercial feel, but lacked the oomph to seal the deal. It wasn’t until the undoubted star of the night, 26-year-old Saima Zakir hit the stage performing a Santana cover, “Europa”, that the audience sat up and took notice. The skill with which she played the pentatonic scales was remarkable for her bare two years of professional training under teacher and mentor Afaq Adnan.
“I grew up listening to Santana who is such a soulful guitarist. I never thought I would end up performing like this,” she said flushed from the stage. “But here I am and I will be doing this for a very long time now. It’s just me and my guitar, wherever life takes us.”
Her beaming teacher noted that Saima even improvised a little towards the end of the song. Afaq Adnan told The Express Tribune: “There are very few who can play Santana and talent like Saima’s is very, very rare.”
The next song managed to maintain the tempo with another original, “Aaja Ve Mahi”, performed with 34-year-old Kholod Shafi at the sitar. Shafi is a doctor by profession but once she finished studying medicine she had an unshakeable urge to take up the guitar. “The first time I put my hands on the sitar strings, it was 10 years ago but then I was so busy with medicine I had no time. For the last two years I have been totally focused on the sitar, which is a difficult instrument to play, but it’s my passion,” she explained. Discussing how there aren’t many girls in the profession or even studying music, Shafi said, “It is a cultural thing here. I don’t know why people cast music in the light of gender, music brings us all together.”
Up next was another original, “Tum jano ya na jano,” and concluding Napa’s performance for the night was a Fuzon cover “Deewane Chalay”.
On the trend of music fusion, which has significantly picked up over the last decade, NAPA head of music Nafees Ahmad said collaboration with international artists and making inroads into the global music scene and was key for students. NAPA, he said, was doing its best to promote its students, by sending them to international music festivals. The consul general agreed, saying he would like to bring western artists here to play as well to promote the cultural exchange.
The Daniel Pearl music days are held in memory of the Wall Street journalist who was killed allegedly while in captivity in Pakistan. Pearl was a great lover of music and enjoyed playing with his Pakistani musician friends. Every year this concert is held in remembrance of Pearl and the love he had for music which transcends all boundaries. Sadly, however, while the event should ideally be held for the public in Karachi, due to security concerns it takes place at the US consul general’s residence, which is off limits to nearly everyone.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 22nd, 2010.
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