Is Decapitating Evil Worth Risking a Messy War?
It’s rare to see a war move so fast in 24 hours. The joint U.S—Israel attacks on Iran launched Saturday morning, and the sudden assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top leaders, has put Iran in existential mode. Things are likely to get very ugly very fast.
After decades of watching the world’s number one sponsor of terror wreak so much havoc throughout its region and the world, this is an astonishing turn of events for a regime that has defined evil.
For Israel and America, this was a “now or never” opportunity, with Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza severely weakened and Iran still reeling from the June attacks on its nuclear installations.
Apparently, the wily mullahs got lulled into the pomp and trappings of nuclear negotiations. They assumed the U.S. was okay with their usual negotiating tactic of buying more time.
The attacks caught them off guard and were massive. While the U.S launched its own devastating strikes, the Israeli Air Force conducted its largest-ever attack with over 200 aircraft striking 500 targets, many of them aimed at Iranian leaders.
Now, with its leadership teetering and President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu calling for regime change, how far will the Islamic regime go to survive?
“If they truly believe they’re at the end of the string, they could go big,” former NATO supreme allied commander James Stavridis told CNN on Saturday. “That would mean closing the Strait of Hormuz, conducting terrorist attacks against American diplomats, businessmen and citizens in the region and elsewhere.
“They could unleash what’s left of their proxies, notably the Houthis who could try to shut down shipping again through the Suez Canal. So they have a lot of cards still to play.”
One of those cards, of course, is to double down on firing missiles at the “little Satan” Israel. Israel is already operating under emergency conditions with schools closed, public gatherings banned and hospitals moving patients underground.
In just the first day, Iran has launched over 200 missiles at Israel, killing one woman in central Israel with over 22 wounded. Things will only get worse. Iran has also launched scores of missiles at U.S. army bases throughout the region.
This regime will not go quietly. They still have plenty of weapons and long-range missiles, and desperate people do desperate things.
Desperation also describes the Iranian people, who have lived under brutal oppression since the theocratic revolution of 1979.
How will they respond? Will they hit the streets again and risk their lives?
How will the powerful security forces, which are splintered into several groups, react? Will some of them take the people’s side, or will they seek revenge for their leader’s death?
Who will replace Khamenei? With him gone, will civil strife break out in Iran? Or will the army take over, as happened in Egypt?
And will the impatient Trump be willing to fight a war that can drag on for months and cause U.S. casualties?
Yes, the demise of Khamenei– who represented the face of the regime for so long– is a psychological boost, especially for Israelis and the Iranian people. But there are still lots of dangerous unknowns. The next few weeks and months will likely be messy and violent.
It’s good to know, however, that two things are not unknown.
One, the Iranian regime is truly evil.
Two, the Iranian people are desperate to be liberated from its clutches.
A best-case scenario where Iran turns into a liberal nation and becomes an ally of the West would be historic.
But there’s also a darker scenario, where the war drags on indefinitely with lots of casualties and another evil leadership taking over.
Is the upside of a liberated Iranian people and a world free of an evil regime worth risking the darker scenario?
If you asked Iranians and Israelis, my hunch is most of them would say yes.
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