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November 26, 2012

Israel, Hamas teams in Cairo for more truce talks

Egyptian mediators began separate talks on Monday with Hamas and with Israel to flesh out details of a ceasefire agreed last week that ended eight days of fighting in the Gaza Strip.

An Egyptian official told Reuters the talks would discuss Palestinian demands for the opening of more Israeli crossings into Gaza – a move that would help end six years of blockade of the coastal enclave ruled by the Islamist Hamas.

The Egyptian-brokered ceasefire came into force last Wednesday, ending hostilities between the two sides that cost the lives of 167 Palestinians and six Israelis.

However, the text of the truce stipulated that issues such as access to the borders, free movement for Gazans and the transfer of goods would be dealt with “after 24 hours.”

Israel imposed restrictions on Gaza in 2006, following an election victory by Hamas, which refuses to recognize Israel's right to exist. The curbs were tightened, and backed by Egypt, after Hamas seized control of the enclave in a civil war.

Some of the import and export limits have since been eased, but Israel still prevents a long list of goods into the territory – including many items needed for construction – arguing they could be used for the manufacture of weapons.

Senior Hamas leader Mahmoud Al-Zahar told reporters on Saturday that the group wanted to see the opening of all four goods crossings with Israel that used to operate before 2006.

Only one operates at present, with a second passenger terminal reserved for the handful of Palestinians and foreigners who are allowed in and out of the territory.

The Egyptian official said Cairo would also urge both sides to cement their commitments to the ceasefire agreement.

Israeli soldiers shot dead a Palestinian man on Friday after he approached the Gazan “no-go” border area, apparently in the belief that under the terms of the ceasefire deal he was unable to go up to the heavily patrolled fence.

Alarmed by the prospect of the truce failing, Egypt encouraged Hamas police to be deployed along the border line to keep Gazans away and prevent further violence.

A day later Israeli troops avoided interfering when Gaza farmers neared the fence to tend to their land, and Israel also eased its restrictions at sea, permitting Gaza fishermen to head farther away from the coast than in the past three years.

Israel launched its air offensive against the Gaza Strip on November 14 with the declared aim of deterring Islamist militants from firing rockets into its territory.

The Israeli military also says its soldiers have come under increasing attack from the border area this year, including earlier this month when a jeep was hit by an anti-tank missile.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told an Austrian newspaper in remarks due for publication on Tuesday that “the most important thing right now is ensuring that there are no illegal deliveries of rockets and weapons to Hamas” and “free access and freedom of movement in Gaza”.

Ban thought the Gaza crisis also showed “the status quo is no option” and urged a resumption of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks stalled since 2010, though Hamas has had no role in those negotiations as it rejects any recognition of Israel.

Reporting by Nidal Almughrabi; Additional reporting by Michael Shields, in Vienna; Editing by Alison Williams

Israel, Hamas teams in Cairo for more truce talks Read More »

When Livni gains, who loses?

So here is the puzzle: Given that A. the merged Likud Beiteinu list remains below the sum of its current components (Likud and Israel Beiteinu have 42 mandates today, but in most polls they get lower number of mandates as a merged list), and B. that the new (tentative, but almost a certainty) party led by former foreign minister and former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni gets 8-9 mandates in the polls, the question is clear: How come the spread between the Likud-right-religious bloc and the center-left blocs is currently at (almost) its maximum since we started our index?

Take a look at the new graph (as usual, the graph and all numbers are crunched by Prof. Camil Fuchs), and get the answer in the following comments:

 

We begin with some technical notes concerning the graph. As you might have noticed, it is a little different this week (you can compare it to recent graphs here, here, and here). As we previously mentioned, the Likud-Center bloc that we tracked up until three weeks ago or so is no longer a real option following the merger of Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu. The newly formed Likud Beiteinu is a right-wing party, and the ability of the Likud to claim a centrist status is basically gone. Thus, we decided to delete the “centrist” trendline from our graph, and keep just two blocs under scrutiny: right and left. But we added a line marking the 60 mandate point, as a reminder of the number of mandates needed for a Knesset majority.

Now to the essence of this week's poll-trend: Two weeks ago, we mentioned that we are not including in our graphs any of the polls that included “virtual” parties. Many such polls examine how Israelis respond to parties that are not yet formed – in fact, most of them will never form – most of them in the vast gray area of the Israeli “center”. And we think (namely, Prof. Fuchs thinks) that this is the kind of “what if” questions that don’t have much value.

But this week we make an exception and do include polls which ask about “a new party led by (the former Foreign Affairs Minister) Tzipi Livni”. The reason for this exception is simple: there are clear indications that Livni will announce as soon as tomorrow (Tuesday) that she is forming a new party and will enter the race. So the question is valid and to some extent even crucial. It is already affecting the way Israeli voters think about their vote (naturally, the polls included today don't yet take into account the decision by Defense Minister Ehud Barak to retire from politics).

Other than the looming Livni entry, the other main event that affected the polls in the last couple of days was the Gaza operation Pillar of Defense. Its effect changed as the operation progressed. At the outset of the operation, it seemed to increase the support for Likud Beiteinu, but at its conclusion the polls found a slight decrease in the support for Likud Beiteinu, which correlates with the fact that the majority of Israelis did not support the ceasefire agreement.

So now, we're back at the question with which we began. If Likud Beiteinu doesn't get as many votes as it now has, and Livni is going to get close to 10 mandates (according to current polls), why is the spread between the two blocs still so wide? The answer is simple: whatever it is that Likud Beiteinu is losing, the beneficiary is not the Center-Left bloc, but rather the parties to the right of Likud Beiteinu. And although Livni seems to attract 8-9 mandates, they all come at the expense of other parties from the Center-Left bloc. The result is a spread of 18 mandates (69 versus 51) with both blocs far from the mid-line of 60, one below and one above.

 

Click here to enlarge

About this feature:‎

The Israel’s Poll Trend feature is your best way of following Israel’s polls and ‎‎understanding Israel’s political numbers. We regularly post an updated Israel’s Poll ‎‎Trend page that includes the following:‎

‎1. Fine-tuned presentation of three possible coalitions: A right-wing coalition, a centrist ‎‎coalition and a left-wing coalition. This presentation, prepared by Prof. Camil Fuchs, will ‎‎be at the heart of our attempt to explain how Israel’s political story unfolds until ‎Election ‎Day.‎

2. The 10 most recent Israeli opinion polls: Namely, the 10 newest polls about political parties that ‎were ‎published by Israeli media. In the table you’ll be able to see where the poll was ‎published, ‎on which date, and the distribution of mandates among Israel’s many parties. ‎

3. Short analysis of the numbers and the dynamics presented in the graph and the table. ‎

Some technical notes:‎

‎1. We only use polls available to the public, and we attempt to gather all available polls ‎without missing any.‎

‎2. The trendline is weekly – namely, it does not change with every poll but rather by week ‎‎(based on all polls published during the week).‎

‎3. As we go along, the mathematical formula with which we draw the trendline should improve, and become more accurate.‎

When Livni gains, who loses? Read More »

Reform congregation websites hosted by URJ are hacked

The websites of several congregations hosted by the Union for Reform Judaism were hacked and linked to anti-Semitic websites.

Following the weekend hacking, the URJ pulled down the websites for scanning and clean-up, according to Mark Pelavin, the URJ's senior advisor to the president.

In an e-mail to JTA, Pelavin said the sites were set to be brought back online by Monday evening, adding that URJ made some changes to its security protocol.

The hackers appear to be a group calling itself Moroccan Ghosts, according to Jeffrey Salkin, the Anti-Defamation League's New Jersey community director.

Since March, Moroccan Ghosts has hacked some 82 websites, mostly in the United States, but also in France, Britain, Vietnam, South Africa, Germany, Spain and China, the ADL said. The Facebook page of Moroccan Ghosts includes graphics reading “Free Palestine,” as well as an Israeli flag ripped in half and on fire.

A member of the group, a 17-year-old hacker from Morocco who calls himself King Neco, in an interview from over the summer with Eduard Kovacs on the Softpedia website, identified as part of the organization's objectives “Defending Palestine and Jerusalem 'al Qods.' “

Reform congregation websites hosted by URJ are hacked Read More »

Israel finally joins the online arms race

Mere hours after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took down their first Hamas official at the start of Operation Pillar of Defense, an army of young Israelis took to the Internet. Not to be out-tweeted by the people of Gaza and their supporters around the world, as has been the case in Israel-Palestinian conflicts past, hundreds of college-aged millenials uploaded the Israeli perspective onto a Facebook page called “Israel Under Fire.”

The account has since racked up an impressive 27,000-plus followers. And although it was founded by the Ministry of Public Diplomacy in Jerusalem with the help of young volunteers, one of its most vital command centers was located an hour north — in a glass-walled classroom at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), a small private college along the Israeli coast.

Armed exclusively with the password to the “Israel Under Fire” Facebook page, the IDC volunteers created a sort of meme factory in this room adjacent their campus library. One row of computers was devoted to quick Photoshop jobs such as slapping captions onto images of Gaza rocket damage, or depicting the world’s other major cities under siege; another row was staffed by international students who translated these perfect little shareables into more than 20 languages; and yet another row funneled all the material into an online dropbox, which could then be accessed by volunteers and their contacts the world over.

By way of this rapidly growing friend network, the “Israel Under Fire” posts — such as an image of rockets flying over Times Square, with the caption: “Would you be willing to live like this for one day? How about 12 years??” — were viewed by millions, according to the site’s administrators.

At the height of the Gaza conflict last week, lead organizer Yarden Ben Yosef was eager to tell his startup story.

He and some close friends initially reached out to the Israeli government, he said, “because we understood that the Palestinian side was so strong in new media. In my opinion, maybe it’s because government [in Gaza] is less organized — because they don’t have a department for advocacy.”

Indeed. Despite the fact that the Israeli government has been hiring lots of new social-media hands, according to Eddie Yair Fraiman, director of new media for the Ministry of Public Diplomacy, these paid PR experts lack, by definition, the air of sincerity and authenticity — street cred, you could call it — that any image or story needs to go viral.

Fraiman stressed over the phone that it was he who first “decided to go viral with the page.”

However, many student organizers said they felt their work had succeeded in large part because of the distance they’d put between themselves and public officials. Ben Yosef, head organizer at IDC, noted that “when we speak with the government, we see that they don’t understand this medium.”

The Prime Minister’s office knew all too well that if Israel was to avoid being painted as a ruthless baby-killer this time around, Operation Pillar of Defense would need to be narrated by real Israeli citizens caught in the crossfire — through a personalized, relatable feed of instant wartime updates.

And it was Israel’s Gen-Y, speaking social media as an innate second language, who had the peer-to-peer legitimacy to make it happen.

Although the Israeli prime minister and president likewise have huge social-media followings, their Facebook and Twitter posts are impeccably starched. And even further biased (for obvious reasons) is the IDF's official Twitter account, which like its Hamas counterpart has achieved global infamy for framing the conflict like a videogame — complete with Dr. Evil sneers. (For example: “We recommend that no Hamas operatives, whether low level or senior leaders, show their faces above ground in the days ahead.”)

Government officials claim to have contributed zero funding to the “Israel Under Fire” effort. Instead, they've showered young volunteers in praise and encouragement; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even called them up last week for a face-to-face video chat, thanking them for their “very important work.”

Netanyahu told the volunteers in Hebrew: “What you are doing greatly strengthens us on the public diplomacy front. We must fight for the truth, for the facts, and your help is worth more than gold.”

The private college where students were stationed also gave up space and resources to support the effort.

Last week, IDC’s Vice President for Student Affairs showed up to the command center with boxes of chocolates. “It’s something very extraordinary, what they’re doing there,” she boasted of her students.

A young man named Tal, who didn’t want to give his last name, sat at the row of computers designated for “data collection,” where volunteers watched what was going viral, and filled comment sections on anti-Israel news stories with pro-Israel arguments.  As his eyes flicked down the screen, Tal explained: “I think there was a lack of awareness on our end [during Operation Cast Lead in 2008 and the Gaza flotilla raid in 2010], which is literally a crime. There was a complete misunderstanding that current modern warfare has gone in the direction of social media. The Palestinians understood that.”

It's tough to compete with photos of dead children — a constant stream of which have been uploaded from within the Gaza Strip. But overall, judging by the overwhelming online response to “Israel Under Fire” and photos of support from Los Angeles to Berlin, the Israeli campaign (and other civilian social-media efforts like it) waged a war that the IDF never could.

As one female student, Adi Kadussi, put it: “If we weren't doing this, all the world will see is only the crap about Israel. We want to show the balance.”

Israel finally joins the online arms race Read More »

JCPA to Congress on budget: Remember the most vulnerable

The Jewish Council for Public Affairs is calling on Congress to think about “the most vulnerable among us” as it works on creating a budget and avoiding the fiscal cliff.

“We believe that deficit reduction should be carefully calibrated to ensure that the most vulnerable among us are protected, opportunity for all is promoted, and justice is pursued,” Rabbi Steve Gutow, president and CEO of JCPA, wrote in a letter that was delivered Monday to Congress.

“At this point, as millions remain out of work and the poverty rate continues to be unacceptably high, it is critical that the institutional pathways to prosperity remain open and wide,” the two-page letter said.

The letter, which lists numerous programs, calls on Congress to “support a balanced deficit reduction plan that promotes the health of our nation’s economy while also insuring the sustainability and effectiveness of anti-poverty programs.”

JCPA is the national policy umbrella group of the American Jewish community.

JCPA to Congress on budget: Remember the most vulnerable Read More »

Norwegian youth leader seen encouraging anti-Semitic speech

Aspiring Norwegian politician Khalid Haji Ahmed said he was only joking when he wished “best of luck eight times over” to activists who wrote on Facebook that they wished Adolf Hitler could kill more Jews.

Screen shots made by Hamar Arbeiderblad, a local newspaper, show Ahmed responding on Facebook to a post that read “Damn Jew whores, wish Hitler could come back and shower you some more.”

The Facebook conversation took place last week between members of the Workers' Youth League, Norway’s largest youth movement, which is affiliated with the country’s ruling Labor Party.

Ahmed, the youth movement’s regional secretary in southeast Norway, is quoted as telling the news site Nettavisen that his comment was “ironic.”

Ahmed, whose family came to Norway from Yemen, is quoted as telling The New York Times last year that he decided to join the youth movement and become politically active to “fight racism” after his brother, also a member of the youth movement, was killed in 2001 by Anders Behring Breivik on the island of Utoya.

Breivik, an ultranationalist who is believed to have acted alone, arrived by boat to the campsite of members of the Workers' Youth League and gunned down 69 people. Another eight people died of gunshot wounds he caused.

Norwegian youth leader seen encouraging anti-Semitic speech Read More »

Two Jewish cemeteries, municipal building vandalized in France

French police reportedly are investigating fresh acts of vandalism in two Jewish cemeteries and a municipal building.

On Monday in Paris, police arrested two men suspected of digging up two corpses at the Pantin cemetery, according to a statement from the municipality. They were found to be in possession of a number of human teeth and are suspected of being gravediggers, the statement read.

In Avignon near Marseille, two plaques on the Jewish cemetery’s wall were bludgeoned on Nov. 22, according to 20minutes, a French news site. The plaques had been repaired from being smashed on Oct. 8. One plaque read “Jewish cemetery” and the other had a Star of David.

Olivier Tainturier, director general of the local municipality of Vaucluse, said his office was “planning to install video surveillance.”

The previous evening, “pro-Palestinian, anti-Semitic texts against Israel and the police” were discovered on the municipal theater of Neuilly-sur-Seine, a western suburb of Paris, according to the French television channel BFM. The report did not say what was spray-painted.

Jean-Christophe Fromantin, a deputy mayor, filed a complaint with police and had the graffiti, which he called “odious,” removed by the end of the week. A practicing Catholic, Fromantin has declared that the “return of the Jewish people to Israel was a miracle.”

Also Monday, SPCJ, the security unit of France’s Jewish communities, praised French authorities’ handling of the prosecution of a university student studying Islamic studies who threatened to start “another Shoah” in an email to a Jewish professor.

On Nov. 15, a court in Aix-en-Provence handed the unnamed man a one-year suspended sentence plus two years of probation.

In an email sent March 19, the day that a Muslim extremist killed four Jews in Toulouse, the man wrote to a Jewish professor of Hebrew and Jewish studies at the University of Provence, “When will you stop making us swallow your tragicomedies, the latest this morning? I don’t like taking orders and even less so from a Jew. That's enough now or I will make another Shoah.”

Two Jewish cemeteries, municipal building vandalized in France Read More »

Studying abroad in a war zone, Americans in Israel are shaken but undeterred

When the first two sirens went off, Shoshana Leshaw ran from her second-floor bedroom down to the bomb shelter in the basement. By the time the third and fourth sirens wailed, she went no farther than the stairwell.

“It’s almost like you’re sick of the sirens interrupting your sleep,” Leshaw said. “You just want to get it over with and go back to what you’re doing.”

Fifteen air-raid sirens in total rang out in the southern Israeli city of Beersheva on the night of Nov. 14, the first night of Israel's Operation Pillar of Defense aimed at bringing an end to Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza. The sirens repeatedly woke Leshaw, a junior at Queens College in New York, and most of the 25 other study-abroad students at Ben-Gurion University.

They were among the thousands of young Americans who come to Israel each year to study or work, but found themselves instead scurrying for cover last week as Hamas rained missiles on Israel.

Students said they never feared for their physical safety; they had been trained on how to react in the event of a missile strike. But many said that living in cities targeted by missiles gave them a new appreciation of the realities of life in Israel, and some found themselves quickly copying the casual approach to war that Israelis have cultivated over decades of living under military threat from their neighbors.

In Tel Aviv with Oranim-Israel Way, an internship program, Stephen Fox was surprised to find his Israeli co-workers joking about the missiles. After a while, though, he found himself thinking of the sirens as a fire drill. A few days after last week's bus bombing in Tel Aviv, Fox, 23, boarded his bus to work without a second thought.

“Halfway through it I was like, ‘Should I be taking the bus?’ ” he said. “It didn’t even occur to me. The restaurants and bars were still going, people were out shopping. It was like normal.”

Oranim, which has a division in the southern city of Ashdod, brought all of its participants to Tel Aviv after fighting broke out. One participant left the program and four others returned home for two weeks with plans to come back. Michal Ben-Ari, Oranim’s Tel Aviv coordinator, said one of the week’s biggest challenges was reassuring parents that their children were safe.

“Parents told us, ‘I don’t see anything on the news, so I’m imagining the worst,’ ” Ben-Ari said.” As soon as we gave them information on what was going on in Tel Aviv, they felt a lot better.”

Other programs with students in southern Israel also took measures to remove them from the path of incoming rockets. The day after Pillar of Defense began, Ben-Gurion’s study-abroad program took students on a trip to Masada, then relocated them to Sde Boker, another Ben-Gurion campus out of rocket range. Program staff quickly arranged for students to continue coursework there — if necessary for the rest of the semester.

“You’re not just bored, but you feel like you can’t change things,” said Abby Worthen, a University of Pennsylvania student taking her junior year abroad. “We felt like there was nothing we could do, and that was hard.”

Worthen, like other students, was shaken the first time she heard a siren — a feeling she said separated the study-abroad students from their Israeli classmates, many of whom were reservists called to serve in the Israeli army.

“I’m almost jealous of Israelis,” Worthen said. “They have this way about them that’s calm and rational, and I don’t. On some level it’s a lot more intense for them because they have a stake in it, [but] it wasn’t as meaningful to them because this is sort of run of the mill.”

Even programs considered safely out of range were impacted by the fighting. Nativ, a Conservative post-high school program in Jerusalem, prohibited participants from traveling to Israel’s South or metropolitan Tel Aviv, both areas targeted by rockets. Oranim asked its participants to notify staff whenever they left Tel Aviv. Often stuck at home, the Americans turned to talking politics — too much, according to Fox.

“I definitely learned a lot more about Israel and the Gaza conflict, but talking about it 24-7, there wasn’t that much news that could sustain conversation,” he said. “So we found ourselves rehashing the same conversations, so it got a little exhausting.”

The intense focus on the fighting, though, reminded Worthen of the physical and emotional distance between Israel and the United States.

“It’s so hard listening when there are real things going on in the world, that Hostess is going out of business,” she said, referring to news last week of the snack maker's demise. “I had to remember that there are other things in the world.”

Studying abroad in a war zone, Americans in Israel are shaken but undeterred Read More »

The Bedtime Question

“Why does Abbah (Dad) want to listen to Israeli radio so much?” My eight year old son Jeremy asked me as I was tucking my five year old daughter Hannah into bed.

Oh no, I thought. I had hoped to avoid this conversation. I had hoped to spare my children from worrying about our family in Israel and my daughter’s best friend who is in Jerusalem for the semester. But the kids could tell something was up.

“There are some problems in Israel now.” I began gently.

“What kind of problems?” Jeremy asked.

“Some fighting,” I said. Jeremy kept asking questions, so I explained that there are some rockets being fired into Israel and Israel is trying to shoot down the rockets before they hit the ground. (I tried to offer as G-rated an explanation of the recent events as possible). 

Then, Hannah asked, “Are rockets going to fall here?”

“No,” I reassured her. I thought of my cousins and friends in Israel who aren’t able to offer their children such an unequivocal guarantee of their safety.

This week’s Torah portion echoes the fear that those parents felt. The portion begins with Jacob poised to meet his brother Esau from whom he had fled twenty years earlier fearing that Esau would murder him after Jacob tricked him out of his father’s blessing. Jacob learned that Esau is coming along with four hundred men, and “Jacob was very afraid and was distressed.” Bereshit Rabbah explains that two verbs used for his fear indicate that he had dual fears. He was afraid that Esau would kill him and distressed that he might be forced to kill his brother in self-defense.

Jacob prepared for the impending confrontation in three ways. He geared up for battle by dividing his family and entourage into two separate camps – (so that even if one group were attacked, then the other group would survive). He also sent Esau a large group of animals as a gift – hoping that diplomacy would avert a military clash. Finally, he prayed and wrestled with a mysterious stranger (or angel) through the night.

Fortunately, the anxiety-provoking encounter between Jacob and Esau did not lead to violence, but rather to an embrace. Jacob told his brother, “Seeing your face is like seeing the face of God.”       

Reading this story in light of recent events in Israel and Gaza, I felt a number of parallels. After the kids were in bed that night, my husband and I watched Israeli television which had several powerful segments. The first was by a military commander who explained and showed the recent technological advances in weaponry that Israel was using in response to the rockets coming into Israel to target Hamas’s operations while trying to avoid civilian casualties. He showed how the person aiming the missile at a Hamas target can redirect the missile if any civilians enter its range. He quoted the Mishnah’s famous saying that anyone who kills a person, it is as if they “destroyed an entire world.” He explained that this appreciation for the sanctity of each human life is such a central part of Israeli culture that many strikes are cancelled or averted at the last moment to spare civilians. He explained that errors will occur but when they happen, they will be assessed to learn what can be done better to spare civilians.

Jacob’s two-fold fear – both of being killed and killing others – was readily apparent in the commander’s words. The general conveyed the ability of recognizing the other as also created in God’s image – which Jacob expressed to Esau when they reconciled.

The news also had two other interviews – one with an older man in Ashkelon who kept his bakery open despite the rocket-fire. He explained that his son was called up into the army, but he continued working to provide for his family. He said he hoped for “quiet.”

The other segment was an interview with an attorney also in Ashkelon who was staying home with his family and had only gone to the grocery store to get some food. He explained that although his kids were afraid, he was trying to look on the bright side and use the week as an unusual opportunity to spend lots of time with his family. He mentioned that because both he and his wife are lawyers and normally very busy, now that they were home with their kids (since the schools and offices were closed), they had an opportunity to play cards, talk and reconnect.

I was struck by the resilience and perseverance of these families. Like Jacob they prepared for the worst but prayed for the best. Even in the crisis, their actions reflected their deepest values.

I am not so naive to believe the current confrontation between Israel and Hamas will end in mutual embrace, the way that Jacob and Esau’s encounter did. Nonetheless, I hope for “quiet” – so that the bakery shop owner can sell his food in peace, and that the lawyer couple can find other ways of having quality time with their kids. Most of all, I pray for a world in which no child has to ask: “Are rockets going to fall here, Mom?”

The Bedtime Question Read More »

Israelis Uninterested in Moving Abroad Because of Gaza Fighting and Greater Missile Exposure

Will Israeli Jews be leaving Israel as a result of the hundreds of missiles fired into Israel during Operation Pillar of Defense  Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation in the Gaza Strip from 14 to 21 November 2012? Indicators point to no. 

If an measure of interest in a Wikipedia entry on Yerida, emigration from Israel, is an indirect indicator of the likelihood of migration, then the answer is that the recent bombardment caused only a fleeting interest in emigration, but nothing lasting or significant.  Israeli native-born Jews are not showing signs of making plans to relocate to other countries in in any significant numbers.

Israel has a high retention rate of it’s Jewish native-born residents, it retains 96 percent of its native-born Israeli Jews as compared to an average retention to comparable countries of 92 percent.  A favorite topic of academics is what level of military threat or violence causes migration and exodus? The Pillar of Defense operation hardly merits a blip on the migratory radar screen. 

The Pillar of Defense military operation, smaller in scope but similar to operations initiated by Israel before five of the last six Knesset elections since 2006, has not caused many Israelis to consider emigration abroad. This curious Israeli phenomenon where conflict is perceived as a “natural component” of Israeli life has been documented in a study of Israeli emigration from 1948 to the 1980s by sociologist Baruch Kimmerling.

As of November 30, 2012

FIGURE 1: YERIDA WIKIPEDIA HITS BY DAY AS INDIRECT INDICATOR OF INTEREST IN EMIGRATON FROM ISRAEL

Even the new experience, for additional millions of Israelis in the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas, of being subjected to missile fire, alarms and sirens for eight days has not brought about migratory preparations abroad.  Israeli were observed fleeing to local bomb shelters, but not fleeing the region under attack as happened in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War.

This initial indication of no real change in Israeli attitudes as expressed in interest in leaving Israel is consistent with and a continuation of  Kimmerling's analysis first published almost thirty years ago (1984) where he pointed out low motivation to emigrate as compared to other nations.  In his 1984 article “The Interrupted System: Israeli Civilians in War and Routine Times” Kimmerling explained:

Since its earliest. formative stages. Israel has never known peace. security or political calm. The process of partial adoption of conflict into the routine operation of the social system has served in many ways as a functional equivalent of ‘peace’ rendered possible because of the following circumstances:

  • a. The prolonged continuation of the conflict. which leads to its perception as ‘destiny’. thereby introducing it as a ‘natural’ component of life.
  • b. The ability to differentiate – mentally as well as institutionally – between active warfare and other conflict periods and patterns.
  • c. Rapid social and military mobilization capability as developed by military reserve and social interruption systems.
  • d. The objective and subjective cost-benefit balance of the conflict. which made the various burdens bearable by individuals and by society as a whole. On economic grounds. this derived from the fact that a considerable portion of the military expenditures was financed through external sources.

This latest Pillar of Defense operation has demonstrated that Kimmerling's analysis is still applicable a generation after it was formulated.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter:

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