The prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, has been gambling on Israel’s security. This is not a claim – it’s a fact. This also isn’t an accusation – it’s simply an acknowledgment of the inevitable. By the very nature of his position, Netanyahu must gamble on Israel’s security. Whenever he takes the decision to bomb a certain target, or not to bomb a certain target; whenever he decides to start a military operation, and when he decides to avoid it; whenever he decides to acquire a certain defense system, or when he decides to pass on the acquisition; whenever he decides to set the defense budget at a certain figure, and not at a different one; in each one of these decisions there is a gambling element. Ideally, it is a well-informed gamble. Ideally, it is a smart gamble. ideally, it is a reasonable gamble. But there's always a gamble – since we have yet to find a prime minister whose every decision and prediction turn out to be correct. No other country has found such a leader as well.
Thus, the claim that Netanyahu is gambling on Israel’s security by not closing a deal on a US aid package for the next ten years – a claim that has been voiced by several politicians in the last few weeks – is meaningless. Of course he’s gambling on Israel’s security. He’s gambling by not closing the deal, and he would be gambling had he decided to close the deal as well. He is gambling when he assumes that he can get a better deal in the future, and he would be gambling by assuming that he can’t get a better deal. There is no certainty about these things, only a gamble: It might be possible that the Obama administration is offering Israel the best deal it can get. On the other hand, it is possible that the administration is offering Israel a deal that isn’t as good as what it can get, from this administration or from the next one.
So the question isn’t whether or not Netanyahu is gambling on Israel’s security, but whether or not this is a reasonable gamble considering the current circumstances. In order to determine whether or not it is a reasonable gamble, you need a deep understanding of Israel’s needs – its security needs and its other needs – you need to know the full details of the American proposal, you need to know the crazy peculiarities of the American political system, you need to know what Netanyahu is insisting on and why he is insisting on it. In other words, you need information that most of the wise people commenting on the aid deal don’t have.
You also need a measure of calmness. Israel has been leading a tough negotiation with an administration that isn’t always attentive to its needs. There is no point in leading a negotiation with the mentality of a “beggar,” a phrase used by several prominent commentators in relation to Israel. If Israel is a beggar, it simply needs to take whatever it is given, without bargaining. If Israel were a beggar, there wouldn’t be a negotiation at all. The Americans would simply throw at Israel the number of coins that they decide to throw, and that would be that.
But Israel is not a beggar. The Americans know this, and therefore they are negotiating. And their negotiation tactics include briefing Israeli commentators, whispering in the ears of Israeli politicians, hallway conversations with Israeli government clerks. In other words: the criticism about how Netanyahu hasn’t signed the agreement is encouraged by the Americans. That’s legitimate. They have a vested interest in getting what Israel gives at the lowest possible cost. Israel wants to give what it gives at the highest possible price.
And, of course, it’s worth making an effort to keep the negotiations as civil as possible, to keep the discussion practical and to the point. Netanyahu doesn’t always make enough effort on that front, but it seems that in this case he is. Fact: his position in the negotiations hasn’t been disclosed. The commentators haven’t heard a detailed explanation from him on his reluctance to sign. They haven’t heard any complaints from him about the American insistence on a number of articles that Israel sees as a serious hit to the aid package it has been receiving. Here – this is also a kind of gamble. Netanyahu has been gambling on being cautious with his use of the media in the aid negotiations with the Obama administration. But this, for some reason, is a gamble that no one has been complaining about.
A Hebrew version of this piece was published by Ma’ariv daily
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