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The US-Israel Relations exchange, part 1: Should Israel vote Republican?

[additional-authors]
April 29, 2015

Jonathan Rynhold is the director of the Argov Center for the Study of the Jewish People and the State of Israel in the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University, where he is also a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. Dr Rynhold's research focuses on Israeli and American approaches toward the Middle East peace process. His work has been published in numerous academic journals, including Political Science Quarterly, Survival, and the Review of International Studies. He has also co-edited two volumes on Israeli elections in the Israel at the Polls series and is a member of the editorial board of the journal Fathom. Additionally, Dr. Rynhold is a member of our Israel Factor panel.

The following exchange will focus on Dr. Rynhold’s new book, The Arab-Israeli Conflict in American Political Culture (Cambridge University Press, 2015).

***

Dear Dr. Rynhold,

Your comprehensive book deals with many issues, but I'd like to cut right to the chase and begin with possibly the most topical of them: “Democrats, Liberals, and the Left: Rising Criticism of Israel”.

Your detailed discussion of the “gap” in support for Israel between Republican and Democratic voters – a gap that is well known and often under discussion (including by me) – ends with the following paragraph: “a Republican administration, especially a more conservative one, will have a predisposition to lean toward Israel’s side in the conflict. In contrast, a Democratic administration, especially a more liberal one, will have a predisposition towards evenhandedness in the conflict, including a greater likelihood of pressure focused on Israel – that would make U.S. support for Israel, in effect, far more conditional”.

So – two questions:

Do these findings mean that Israel is right to prefer an American Republican administration over a Democratic one?

Can Israel somehow regain the lost support among Democratic voters?

Best,

Shmuel.

***

Dear Shmuel,

Do these findings mean that Israel is right to prefer an American Republican administration over having a Democratic one?

No, it is a very important Israeli interest to protect bipartisan support for Israel in the US. Bipartisan support is the ‘ozone layer’ of the special relationship. If Israeli policy is perceived to be pro-Republican, it will deplete that ‘ozone layer’ – so to speak. After all, the Republicans are not going to win every election from here to eternity.

Moreover, it is not as if the Democrats are anti-Israel. They are consistently more sympathetic to Israel over the Palestinians by a factor of 2:1 – in sharp contrast to left-leaning parties in Western Europe. Going partisan would only serve to lessen Israel’s support among Democrats; it is therefore to be avoided. It could also damage Israel’s standing among American Jews, the vast majority of whom vote Democrat, but for whom Israel is not a critical election issue.

Having said that, a Republican administration is likely to be easier for an Israeli government to get along with; and not only a center-right Israeli government. Generally speaking, Republicans tend to be much closer to the Israeli view of the Middle East than Democrats and they are also more supportive of Israeli use of force, for example during the Operation Protective Edge against Hamas last summer. In addition, Republicans are more inclined to adopt an assertive foreign policy from which Israeli security (and that of America’s Arab allies) benefits. In contrast, the Democrats are divided both on how to deal with the Arab-Israeli conflict and on foreign policy more generally. The more dovish wing associated with Obama is especially critical of Israeli policies and its approach is somewhat more popular among Democrats that the more centrist approach associated with Hilary Clinton – which is willing to adopt a relatively assertive foreign policy and which is more understanding of Israeli security requirements, even as it remains critical of Israeli settlement policies.

Can Israel somehow regain the lost support among Democratic voters?

The problem is not that Israel has lost support among Democratic voters. As I noted above, levels of overall sympathy for Israel among Democrats is quite stable. Rather the problem is that Democrats, especially younger Democrats, are increasingly unwilling to support Israeli policies and are increasingly critical of what they view as the weakening of Israel’s democratic character. There are three things Israel can do about this.

First, Israel should encourage its supporters within the Democratic Party to support candidates who support a relatively robust foreign policy. This probably makes sense for the Democrats in any case, as the American public as a whole is more hawkish that the Democratic Party base. 

Second, it can work with liberals to forge ties with Israeli groups that promote liberal causes that are not directly related to the conflict. The sharp contrast between the vibrant argumentative nature of Israel and the nature of Arab regimes is brought into sharp relief by actually visiting the region. 

Third, Israel needs to be credible about working towards a peaceful two-state solution. It’s no good taking steps one and two, without also taking step three. Being credible about a two-state solution is increasingly a threshold issue or acid test for Democrats, in terms of support for Israel. If Israeli policy is not credible on this, then younger liberal Democrats will not take the other measures seriously; they will dismiss them as cynical and self-serving. This does not mean that Israel has to give in to all Palestinian demands and create a Palestinian state tomorrow. But it does mean that Israel has to severely limit settlement construction to the areas of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which the United States expects Israel to retain in any permanent status agreement.​

 

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