The Israel File Appendix: Bennett’s Dilemma

We send The Israel File every Sunday, and that’s a good way for you to know everything you need about Israel’s coming week in just five minutes of reading. Thank you for signing up.

Oftentimes, we also post an appendix to the File, to update you on the political situation with more detail and nuance. Our update follows the updated table of poll-averages. Note that the table includes both a simple average of the last 10 polls, and a weighted average that takes into account the time of the poll, it’s sample size and other things. So, first let’s look at the table:

What do we see here? Here are six comments:

1. To believe that Israel is going to have another round of election, either in March (if the coalition ceases to function at the end of December), or in June (in Netanyahu can convince Blue and White to stick with it until the end of March), is to believe that at least of the two leaders – Likud’s Netanyahu or B&W’s Gantz – is ready to be a kamikaze. That is, to have new election in which he is going to lose. If we believe the polls, a new election will make Gantz almost insignificant. Surely, he will no longer be a prospective PM. As for Netanyahu: his numbers are down, and dependence on Yamina’s Naftali Bennett high. Without him, it is hard to see him forming a new coalition.
2. That is, unless the polls we see today change dramatically in the coming months. If they do, most observers expect to see Bennett’s numbers decline. Support for him is fragile, and the voters that joined him could easily abandon him for a new and shinier enterprise.
3. There is also the question of what Bennett wants. If new election produces the outcome we see here, his choice will not be easy. He could try to form an alternative to Netanyahu, but for this to happen he will need the support of not just the center-left (they’d probably accept any arrangement that dethrone Netanyahu) but also of the far left (problematic for him as a rightist) or of the ultra-Orthodox (which means an end to the Likud-Haredi pact).
4. His other option would be tough negotiation with Likud and a right-religious coalition. In such case, he’d want to maximize his achievement by becoming the next PM – maybe with a rotation agreement in which he goes first as PM, and Netanyahu second.
5. Least four developments must be taken into account as we ponder the possibilities of the coming months. A. what happens in the polls. B. what happens. With the budget, and how B&W reacts when their demand to pass a budget is not heeded. C. what happens when Netanyahu’s trial begins in January. D. what happens with the virus and the battle against it.
6. One thing is certain: all political commentators in Israel are convinced that a new election is unavoidable at the first half of 2021.

More on Rosner’s Domain:

Responding to Readers of “Ultra-Orthodox Jews’ Greatest Strength Has Become Their Greatest Weakness” – a first in a two part post in which I answer the many critics of my latest NYT article.

Chuck Freilich: The future of the US Israel connection – this podcast episode is a good way to prepare for the US election. We are saying anything about who’s going to win, but rather about what he’d have to do vis a vis Israel and the Middle East. (on a similar subject you can also hear last week’s episode: Jacob Dayan: Will Biden be good for Israel?)