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Israel File Appendix: Numbers Under Lockdown

[additional-authors]
September 26, 2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sits next to Education Minister Naftali Bennett during the weekly Cabinet meeting at his office in Jerusalem, Israel, Aug. 30, 2016. (photo by REUTERS/Abir Sultan)

The weighted average below takes into account the timing of the poll (more recent, more important); the number of people surveyed (more people, more weight); the average error for each party in the last three rounds of elections.

The right is getting stronger, even though Likud is getting weaker, thanks to the rise of rightwing Yamina. Its leader, Naftali Bennett, is focusing on the fight against the coronavirus, and is seen as an adult in a field of juveniles. He attracts voters from Likud, but also from Blue and White and other parties.

Netanyahu is getting weaker. While his weighted average here (Likud) is still above 30 seats, his average in the last three polls is below 30. If he wants new elections before next September (when Benny Gantz is slated to replace him as prime minister), there is a huge risk involved because he will be totally dependent on Bennett, whom he greatly dislikes.

Blue & White is on the way to disappearing. With less than 10 seats in the last four polls, it is easy to see how this party — a three-time contender for taking the lead — could disintegrate before the next election. The decline from 30 to nine was fast; the one from nine to less than four could be faster.

 

 

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