February 27, 2020

Election Handbook: Trump did not change election picture

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) in the East Room of the White House on January 28, 2020 in Washington, DC. President Trump is expected to release details of his administration's long-awaited Middle East peace plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until next Election Day, March 2, 2020. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype.


Bottom Line 

A historic week, yet nothing changed!


Main News

Trump Plan No quick annexation is expected. Netanyahu searches for ways to utilize the Trump plan for his benefit. Gantz is willing to have the Knesset vote in support of the plan.

Netanyahu travel ends today. The PM will return from Washington and Moscow, carrying with him the Israeli prisoner whose release was secured by Putin last week.

The polls don’t show any change the way Israeli voters intend to cast their votes.

For more details on the plan, please read:

The Cyrus Parameters: Trump and Netanyahu

Deal of the Century: First Take on Next Week’s Drama

On another matter: I wrote an article about the election to the World Jewish Congress. Read it here.


The Blocs and Their Meaning

In this short instalment all we need is the following graph. It shows (based on poll averages) that the basic construct of the Israeli electorate remained basically unchanged. That is to say: If the Trump plan was a political ploy, it failed to achieve its goal.



Party to Watch

You can see that the Likud party, Netayahu’s party, did gain a little in the last couple of days. But the votes it gains are coming from parties within the right-religious bloc (still, Netanyahu needs a larger Likud to have a claim for the mandate to form a coalition).