June 27, 2019

Why Trump Will Win In 2020

“One of the particular characteristics of the Trump presidency is the way Trump consistently creates drama – some by design, some not – that makes it hard to see the broader outline of events. Nowhere is this more clear than in considering the 2020 election. We’re inundated by reports about the President’s turbo-powered campaign, his vast fundraising, new kinds of micro-targeting, negotiations with foreign governments to attack domestic political opponents. In fact, though the President remains very unpopular. Despite the fact that incumbent President’s usually get elected, most signs suggest pretty clearly he won’t.

Let me make one point clear. I don’t take it remotely for granted that Trump won’t win a second term. I think it’s quite possible he will. He has all the built in Republican advantages. He has most of organized wealth behind him. Most of all he has the huge advantage of the electoral college. Perhaps most importantly he pulled off the wildly improbable once already and the consequences of his winning are so vast and catastrophic that nothing can be left to chance.

Yesterday Fox News published a new presidential poll. The “Fox News” moniker aside, their poll is a solid, legitimate poll, even if it’s a bit on the favorable end toward the President. Trump’s approval rating was on the relative high side for him in this poll at 46%. (53% opposed.) Best numbers are on the economy; worst on health care; not surprising.

The head to head numbers with Democratic challengers are revealing. Against Joe Biden, Trump is 11 points down, 49%-38%. Against Bernie Sanders, 46%-41%, Harris it’s 41%-41%. Warren, 43%-41%. Buttigieg 40%-41%.”

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