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“The U.S. economy is growing at the fastest pace in five years, American companies are earning record profits and unemployment is at the lowest level in almost half a century.
So why are Wall Street and some economists suddenly worried about a recession?
Financial markets in particular have been signaling that trouble is brewing. The Standard & Poor’s 500, which tracks the biggest U.S. companies, has plunged about 6 percent since Dec. 4 because of worries about trade and slowing global growth. And a key bond metric that has presaged every recession since 1960 is warning another may be on the way.
As an economist who teaches and conducts research in international trade and finance, I see three credible concerns driving the worries.”
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