Mixed Message

As the Israeli army mounted a major operation in the Gaza
Strip this week, questions were being asked about the ability of Israel’s new,
right-wing government to advance the peace process with the Palestinians.

Israeli officials claimed the Gaza operation actually was
intended to serve a new, serious drive for a cease-fire being discussed by
Israeli and Palestinian officials. Once a cease-fire is achieved, they said,
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is determined to move quickly to strike a
longer-term deal with the Palestinians.

But the chances of achieving a cease-fire any time soon may
be reduced following after a suicide bus bombing Wednesday in Haifa.

At least 15 people were killed and more than 30 others
wounded in the attack.

“Once again, the bestial hand of Palestinian terrorism has
struck at the heart of Israel,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said.Â

Hamas issued a statement Wednesday in the Gaza Strip
praising the bombing, but stopped short of claiming responsibility.

The attack came amid Israeli efforts to clamp down on Hamas
operations in Gaza.

Israeli forces backed by tanks moved into Gaza’s al-Bureij
refugee camp on Monday after rockets were fired at the town of Sderot on the
Israeli side of the border. The target was Hamas, which Israel holds responsible
for the rocket attacks.Â

Israel argues that it can’t allow Hamas to hold the people
of Sderot hostage — and that, for any cease-fire to hold, the Palestinian
Authority must keep Hamas and other radical organizations under control.

But Israel faces a dilemma: Since the intifada began 29
months ago, Israel’s battle against terror has severely weakened the
Palestinian Authority (P.A.), with which it might one day be able to strike a
peace deal.

At the same time, the fighting has left Hamas, which is not
interested in any compromise with Israel, virtually intact — to the extent that
Hamas now constitutes a real threat to the hegemony of P.A. President Yasser
Arafat’s Fatah movement in Gaza.

Israel’s recent actions against Hamas, therefore, have a double
goal: to protect Sderot by sending a deterrent message and to weaken Hamas’s
organizational structure and military capabilities.

Most of the Israel Defense Forces operations in Gaza over
the past month have been directed at Hamas terrorists. This week’s action for
the first time targeted a Hamas political leader, Mohammed Taha, one of the
organization’s co-founders, who was apprehended in the al-Bureij camp and taken
into custody.

The message was clear: Israel now sees itself free to attack
Hamas political leaders, including perhaps the organization’s spiritual leader
and co- founder, Sheik Ahmad Yassin.

Israel has been urging the Palestinian Authority to confront
Hamas and force it to play by the P.A.’s rules.

Israeli officials often cite the example of the chaotic
early days of Israeli statehood, when to assert the authority of the central
government, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion ordered the sinking of the
Altalena, a Jewish ship that was bringing arms to underground Jewish militias.

In recent weeks, the Palestinian Authority instituted
patrols along Gaza’s northern border, intercepting Hamas rocket crews and
stopping them from firing. But beyond that, Israeli officials said, there is no
sign that the Palestinian Authority is willing to take on Hamas.

By hitting the organization’s political and military wings,
Israel hopes to weaken Hamas enough to induce the Palestinian Authority to
assert its authority at some point.

Yet there is something of a vicious circle in all this: The
Israeli strikes have not been as surgical as the IDF would have liked, and a
few hours after Monday’s IDF incursion killed eight people, including two
civilians, Hamas again fired rockets at Sderot. Given the scope of the Israeli
attack, this time the Palestinian Authority was unwilling to stop Hamas.

Despite Israel’s ongoing policy of pro-active defense
against Hamas and other terrorist groups, Israeli and Palestinian officials are
working intensively on a phased cease-fire agreement that would lead eventually
to a full Israeli pullout from Palestinian areas and to free Palestinian
elections.

The idea is that the Palestinians first take effective
security control in Gaza, which would mean keeping Hamas in check. If that
takes hold, the cease-fire could spread to West Bank cities, starting with
Nablus and Bethlehem and going on to Ramallah and Hebron, then to Jenin,
Tulkarm and Kalkilya.

The plan initially was put forward in January by an Israeli team
led by Sharon’s bureau chief, Dov Weisglass. In late February, P.A. Interior
Minister Hani Hassan came back with a detailed draft of his own. That draft now
is the basis of the intensive negotiations.

Sharon aides said that if a lasting cease-fire is achieved,
the prime minister will be ready to withdraw Israeli troops to pre-intifada
lines. That would enable elections in the Palestinian territories, as envisaged
in the international “road map” for an Israeli-Palestinian peace being
finalized by the diplomatic “Quartet” of the United States, United Nations,
European Union and Russia.

Sharon aides dismissed assessments in the Israeli press that
the right-wing government will not be able to move on the Palestinian track.
Immediately after his re-election, the aides noted, Sharon held meetings with
top Palestinian leaders — including the speaker of the parliament, Ahmed Karia,
and Finance Minister Salam Fayed — and said both sides are convinced they can
work together.

Moreover, the aides maintained, Sharon has total control of
all decision-making forums in his government. The parties to the right of
Sharon’s Likud, such as the National Religious Party and the National Union,
have a total of only four Cabinet ministers in a government of 22.

In the 120-member Knesset, the aides said, Sharon can count
on the support of 55 members of the coalition, as well as most of the Labor-led
opposition, for any peace moves he makes.

Labor legislators remained unconvinced, however. Sharon
could have formed a coalition with them, they said, but instead chose the far
right — and that shows his true intentions, they

claimed.

In talks with Labor, the legislators said, Sharon spoke
about being ready to evacuate settlements in the context of a final peace
agreement with the Palestinians, but refused to put it in writing.

They also pointed out that both the National Religious Party
and the National Union sent letters to Sharon objecting to the establishment of
a Palestinian state, which is central to President Bush’s vision of the
two-state solution toward which the road map is supposed to lead, and which
Sharon says he supports.

Yet Sharon says that at age 75, after spending most of his
life as a soldier, his greatest ambition is to lead Israel to peace. His aides
talked about his becoming an “Israeli de Gaulle.”

Labor Party Chairman Amram Mitzna said he, too, hoped Sharon
would become a peacemaker, but he lost hope after their coalition talks.
Whether or not the negotiators soon achieve a cease-fire could be a first
indication of where Sharon’s second administration is headed.

Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the
Jerusalem Report. Â