I have to apologize twice at the outset of this post: Once, for writing so much in recent days about new polls – apparently, Passover is not just the holiday of matza, it’s also the great holiday of Jewish polls (there are still a couple of such new polls waiting for me). The more important apology, though, is the one concerning the content of what you’re about to read: I’ll show you some interesting findings, for which I only have a partial explanation. The numbers are striking; the reasons are often beyond me – if I’m able to find someone to provide an explanation down the road, I’ll make sure to share his/her observations with you.
The poll I’m writing about today is one that I already mentioned a couple of days ago, as I was writing Do Israelis support an attack on Iran? It is a recent poll, commissioned by The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, and conducted by Domain’s resident magician, Prof. Camil Fuchs. Seventy-seven percent think Iran is an existential threat, says the poll, and the papers reporting its findings generally followed this story line. Between the lines, though, there’s another interesting story hidden – the one about Russian immigrants to Israel and their somewhat different approach to Iran. The good people of JCPA provided Rosner’s Domain content editor Sara Miller with the crosstab tables, from which this story emerges.
So here it is: Russian-born Israelis (those who immigrated after 1990), generally speaking, accept that Iran is a threat to Israel. However, they seem less afraid of it, and are also more skeptical when it comes to any attempt to stop Iran. They don’t trust the IDF as much as most other Israelis, but also don’t trust the promises of President Obama. In some ways, they respond exactly like “religious” (and more hawkish) Israelis, but in others they respond more like “secular” Israelis (Russian Israelis tend to be secular but hawkish – so that’s to be expected).
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Take a look for example, at this table, comparing Jewish Israelis from different sectors on the question: Do you agree/disagree that if Iran will acquire nuclear weapon it will use it against Israel? Just 15% of Russian Israelis totally agree with such assertion, compared to double this number in the general population. Fifty-five percent of Russians agree with it, compared to more than 60% on average, and more than 70% among religious Israelis.
Sector |
Total |
|||||
|
Secular |
Traditional |
Religious |
Haredi |
Russian |
|
Totally agree |
34% |
36% |
32% |
35% |
15% |
31% |
Agree |
26% |
26% |
42% |
27% |
40% |
30% |
Disagree |
17% |
12% |
18% |
17% |
26% |
17% |
Totally disagree |
19% |
21% |
6% |
8% |
15% |
17% |
Don’t know |
4% |
4% |
2% |
13% |
4% |
5% |
Russian Israelis tend to trust the American military just a little less than other Israelis (82% would trust it to “significantly hit” Iran’s nuclear program, compared to 87% on average) – but their trust of Israel’s military is another story. Take a look: Can the IDF significantly hit Iran’s nuclear program?
Sector |
Total |
|||||
|
Secular |
Traditional |
Religious |
Haredi |
Russian | |
Totally agree |
32% |
35% |
42% |
27% |
26% |
32% |
Agree |
31% |
38% |
30% |
33% |
36% |
34% |
Disagree |
20% |
14% |
14% |
21% |
22% |
18% |
Totally disagree |
16% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
13% |
11% |
Don’t know |
2% |
6% |
8% |
13% |
4% |
5% |
Interestingly, all Israelis trust the US military much more than they trust the IDF (87% and 66% respectively). But two sectors stand apart, as their trust of Israel’s military is much higher than the others’ – the patriotic religious are the most trustful of the IDF (but even they trust the US military more), and traditional Israelis also tend to trust it. The odd group of the secular, the Haredi and the Russian Israelis have much greater doubts.
But look how these groups regroup when another question is asked: While the Russians and the Haredim differ much to the religious when it comes to trusting the IDF – they have a lot in common when it comes to trusting the American president, Barack Obama. Fifty-eight percent of secular Israelis agree that Obama’s statements reflect readiness to act in order to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb. But this number drops significantly when more traditional Israelis ponder Obama’s commitment. The most hawkish “religious” are the least trustful of Obama, and their partners in this alliance of mistrust are the Haredi and the (secular but hawkish) Russians:
Secular |
Traditional |
Religious |
Haredi |
Russians |
|
Totally agree |
22% |
13% |
6% |
20% |
13% |
Agree |
36% |
32% |
18% |
17% |
24% |
Disagree |
22% |
32% |
43% |
28% |
32% |
Totally Disagree |
16% |
18% |
22% |
17% |
22% |
Don’t know |
4% |
5% |
10% |
17% |
9% |
To conclude: