Americans, you are not supportive enough of Israel! (Or so we ungrateful Israelis seem to think…)

Menachem Lazar of Panels Politics just released the most detailed survey thus far on Israelis and their outlook on the American election (full disclosure: the poll was done for the Knesset TV channel, and I assisted in authoring some of the questions). The bottom line is still what it was a week ago: unlike the case of all previous recent elections, in this cycle Israelis are supportive of the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton. 42% for her, 40% for Donald Trump, the GOP candidate. But in Israel’s case, much like in America’s, support is a function of political tendencies. Clinton is overwhelmingly supported by leftist Israelis (83%), and by centrists (44%-25%). But the Israeli right supports Trump – 53% to 32% for Clinton. This is so even though more Israelis, 44%, believe that the Republican Party is better for Israel (26% say the Democratic Party is better and 30% don’t know).

Now note an interesting phenomenon: while a majority of Israelis say “Clinton” when asked “if you had the right to vote in the American election who would you vote for?” – only a minority of Israelis believe that Clinton would be “a better President for Israel.” 46% of Israelis believe that Trump would be a better President for Israel – while a smaller 37% group believe that Clinton would be better for Israel. What does this tell us? One of two things: either some Israelis, more than a few, do not want the American President to be good for Israel. They are so pissed off with Israel’s policies that they want the American President to be he who is worse for Israel. Or some Israelis, more than a few, are so freaked out by Trump that they are willing to sacrifice the interests of their own country if that’s what it takes for America to have the better President for America (but one that is not as good for Israel).

There are, of course, other options too: that Israelis believe that what’s best for America is also best for Israel, and interpret the second question as a narrow question on the President’s relations with the government of Israel. Whatever they think, the right is more consistent: 53% would vote for Trump and 53% believe he’d be better for Israel. The center is the least consistent: centrist Israelis would vote for Clinton 44% to 25% for Trump – a 19% gap. But when asked about the next President and Israel, there is in fact a small gap in Trump’s favor: 41% of them believe he would be the better one, and 39% believe Clinton would be the better one.

How good do Israelis expect the American administration to be on Israel? It must be said – especially when we are just a few days after the signing of a new 10 year aid deal – that they expect a lot. Probably too much. Lazar asked Israelis if the US supports Israel too much, not enough, or just about the right amount. Israelis give an answer that seems, on the one hand, trivially human, but, on the other hand, somewhat greedy: 56% say the US is not supportive enough of Israel. Among right-wing Israelis the number goes up to 65%. I assume that this has a lot to do with the policies of the Obama administration and the way Israelis view them – keep reading if you want to know how low they rank the current President compared to his predecessors.

The only Israelis who tend to think that the US might be too supportive of Israel are left-wing Israelis. 12% of them answered this question with “too much.” But most of them, 51%, said “just about right.” By the way, 44% of Israelis also said that American Jews are not supportive enough of Israel – yet a larger number, 47%, said their support for Israel is at the right level. Right-wing Israelis are unsatisfied: 48% do not think that Israel is getting enough support from the Jews in the US (42% say it’s at the right level). The center is half satisfied, with 53% for “just about right” and 43% for “not enough.” The left is the only group of which fewer – 27% – say “not enough.” It is also the only group out of which a somewhat significant number, 12%, say that US Jewry supports Israel too much.

Lazar agreed to repeat a question we asked in April 2015 – more than a year ago – in which Israelis are asked to rank the best and the worst President for Israel since Jimmy Carter. The notable difference between the new poll and the old one – for which I have no explanation – is the sharp decline in Israel’s appreciation of George Walker Bush (Bush the 2^nd). He is still ranked second in the list of best, but far behind Bill Clinton (that is one of the reasons why Hillary Clinton is doing so well with Israelis). 

The worst for Israel is also a list that did not change much. Obama is doing a little better than last year, but is still, by far, the least appreciated by Israelis. One ought to have this number in mind as one considers Prime Minister Netanyahu’s calculations as he heads to his meeting with Obama on Wednesday: He is not going into a meeting with a highly-valued president such as Bill Clinton, with whom he clashed in the Nineties – he is going into a meeting with a President whom a majority of Israelis, disregarding the MOU, consider the worst since Carter (they probably think he is the worst ever, but we did not include other presidents in the survey).

The results are based on an internet survey, a representative sample of 503 Israelis. The margin of error is 4.4%.