The Week Ahead: Will Coronavirus Save Israel from Another Election?

Today, Monday, Israel’s political elite are preoccupied with political affairs. Citizens and leaders alike agree that this is not the time nor the proper subject, and yet, they see no other way. To understand why they are doing what they’re doing, and prepare for the rest of this week, here is a short guide.

Today

Today the Knesset will reconvene, and committees will be formed. This is a necessary act to begin parliamentary oversight in a time of crisis. This is also an act of political spite: the main opposition party, Blue and White, is utilizing its fragile 61 majority (Blue and White, Israel Beiteinu, Labor-Meretz, Joint List) to signal to Likud that its days of complete domination are over. The parties of the coalition are going to boycott this session of the Knesset, in protest against what they see as unprecedented move of forming committees without agreement between the blocs. The usual way of the Knesset is that committees are formed by reaching mutual agreement between coalition and opposition.

Speaker

Speaker of the Knesset Yuli Edelstein is not going to lose his job today. The Knesset is waiting for the Supreme Court to decide how to handle this matter. In short: the opposition can use its 61 majority to appoint a new Speaker. Edelstein, using bureaucratic means, will not allow a vote to take place. The law says that a Speaker must take place when a new government is about to form. So, the court must decide: does it mean “when a majority wants it,” or maybe “when a majority is about to form a government.” The difference in this case is significant because Blue and White’s Benny Gantz has the majority to elect a new Speaker, but not the majority to form a government (Update: The court wants Edelstein to allow a vote by Wednesday. The Speaker has a few more hours to respond to this suggestion).

Democracy

The more technical and procedural our politics become, the more our politicians use fancy words such as “democracy” to fight for their cause. Blue and White argue that the procedural tricks used by Edelstein signal the looming end of Israel’s democracy. Likud leaders argue that breaking precedent and electing a new Speaker when there’s no government in sight is morally corrupt. Forgive my cynicism, but in both cases, the words do not match the deeds. The leaders speak about morals and values but really play a simple game of power.

Power

What is the goal of the two main players? That’s easy to define. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, it is to stay in power for as long as possible. For challenger Benny Gantz, it is to get power as soon as possible. But there are obstacles for both. First, a pandemic is raging and both politicians will appear petty if they play too much politics in a time of crisis. So, they must be restrained. Second – neither can form a majority government with their current supporters. Third – there is complete lack of trust between them. This is especially true for Gantz, who does not trust Netanyahu (not without reason). The result of all this is the game of power that they’re currently playing. Its true aim is to collect a few more cards prior to the real game: negotiations for a unity government.

Unity

Neither wanted a unity government. Not a unity in which they have to sit together. But since the only alternative to unity is a fourth election in September – a devastating result – both seem ready to compromise. The problem, naturally, is that “compromise” means different things to different people. For Netanyahu, it means that he would serve as PM for a year and a half, followed by a year and a half of Gantz. So, we begin by Gantz needing to believe that Netanyahu is truly going to make good on his promise a year and a half from now. Netanyahu also wants his coalition partners to take part in the unity government. He comes with his “bloc.” This means that Gantz and his partners will not get a real chance to pass some of the most necessary reforms they envisioned (for example, state-religious affairs will not be reformed). One of the ways for Blue and White to somewhat remedy the current preponderance of power is to elect a new Speaker that gives them some more control over the agenda of the Knesset. With such control, it would be somewhat more difficult for Netanyahu to go back on his promises (but surely not impossible).

Netanyahu

There are two schools of thought concerning Netanyahu’s true aim. One – he wants to take control and keep the job for as long as possible. Two – he wants to keep his job for a little longer and depart honorably. If you adhere to the first narrative, you might want to believe the warning about him becoming a tyrant. If you tend to believe in the second, you’d let him head the unity coalition for a year and a half and then say goodbye.

Gantz

Gantz is in a tough spot. As a responsible, decent leader, he knows that now is not a good time for political maneuvers. As a man who has run three campaigns against Netanyahu, he knows that the PM is not below using a crisis to get a political advantage. As the head of a party, he is pressured by people who have differences of opinion concerning what needs to be done now. His most important partner, Yair Lapid, does not want to sit under Netanyahu in a government. For now, Gantz’s solution for this conundrum is to buy time and collect chips. But his time is quickly running out. It’s been a week since he got the 28-day mandate to form a government from the President.

So?

Unity is what the people want. It is what most politicians say they want. A proposal was put on the table by Netanyahu, and although no one really trusts him to keep the deal, the alternatives to the bad option of trusting him (a fourth election) seem worse. The result ought to be a unity coalition. The result ought to be a compromise. This should also have been the result after the first and the second election. And yet, there is reason to believe that this time it is going to happen. Coronavirus is a curse – but politically speaking, it might prove to be a blessing.