Prime Minister Olmert goes to prison: 3 comments

1.

The first Israeli President to sit in jail, Moshe Katzav, will stand before the committee that will determine his future as a prisoner in about two months. There is a good chance that this committee will decide to deduct a third of his jail term – for “good behavior.” Thus, the time in which both a Prime Minister and a President will be spending as fellow prisoners will be relatively short. Ehud Olmert, the first Israeli Prime Minister that was ever sent to prison, will soon be the most senior prisoner in the Israeli prison system.

When Olmert was initially found guilty by the court – the decision today was made by the court of appeals – I wrote the following paragraph: “A former Israeli prime minister is guilty of bribery. This is a serious matter, transcending all nuances, analyses and caveats. It is a sad day for Israel, and also a day of pride. Is Israel corrupt? The signs are mixed. On the one hand, a person once the most powerful in Israel’s public life was found guilty of taking money in exchange for favors. On the other hand, Israel is strong enough to investigate, prosecute, try, convict and punish the once-most-powerful person in Israel’s public life.”

After the verdict, the conviction, the appeal, all other steps are merely symbolic. It does not really matter to the Israeli public if Olmert will be spending six, five, four, three, or two, years in prison. What matters is the bottom line: An Israeli Prime Minister was bribed. An Israeli Prime Minister will be jailed.

2.

It is ultimately 18 months of prison time – a significant relief for Olmert, down from six years.

He is still guilty of bribery – but not as guilty as he was yesterday. One of the guilty bribery charges was overturned. In fact, the main bribery charge was overturned. So there was enough in the court's decision for Olmert to feel that his appeal was worth the trouble. Talking to the press after the court's decision, Olmert highlighted the charge that was eliminated and downplayed the lesser charge that was maintained.

This was an expected reaction from him, but it does not mean that such a reaction has no merit. An Israeli citizen might ask: Had it been only the lesser case – would Olmert have been investigated and prosecuted? Had it been only the lesser case – would Olmert have been convicted by the lower court?

Of course, we will never know the answer to these questions. But they provide Olmert with an understandable, even justifiable, sense of a small victory. Before he goes to prison.

3.

As a political player, Olmert was gone long ago. His imprisonment changes nothing in Israel's political situation. It does not strengthen or weaken anyone. It does not impact the future decisions of other politicians. Olmert is going to jail (metaphorically – he will only be jailed in February) on the same day that Prime Minister Netanyahu got his way with Likud voters and set a date for his prompt election as the leader of the party for the next couple of years.

But the court's decision does signal the beginning of a new season in which Israel will busy itself with investigations of senior political figures. Today Olmert was sent to prison. In two days, Netanyahu's wife, Sara, will be investigated by the police. Some Israeli commentators believe that this investigation – not the first one against the Netanyahu family – will be the beginning of the end of Netanyahu. And of course, a note of caution is due: most of the commentators who tend to think in such way are also ones who want to see Netanyahu's downfall. And another note of cation is due: Netanyahu, for quite some time, has proved to be more cunning than most of those who repeatedly predict his looming downfall.

Still, many things might happen when Sara Netanyahu is investigated. Many things could get complicated for the family because of this investigation. 

And starting today, it is clear that there is one thing no current or future Prime Minister of Israel can count on: immunity.