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June 28, 2015

Sunday Reads: Demand more from Iran, The Palestinian case against BDS, Jews in Putin’s new Russia

US

Dexter Filkins doesn’t understand why the US isn’t demanding more of Iran:

At the nuclear discussions now unfolding in Vienna, American and other Western diplomats are asking the Iranians to do many things. But perhaps most interesting is what they are not asking them to do: they are not asking the Iranians to curtail their sponsorship of Hezbollah, or to scale back their aid to Assad, or to release any of the American citizens held in their country’s prisons, including Jason Rezaian, a correspondent for the Washington Post.

Philip Gordon gives his take on next week’s crucial negotiations:

While critics—and op-ed writers in the comfort of their offices—can easily say what an agreement should contain, our negotiators have to find a way to deliver across the room from Iranian negotiators who are under as much pressure as they are—with their own domestic politics, redlines and hard-liners back home. What I do believe is that if we can get these remaining elements, the agreement will be in the national security interests of the United States. Critics of the Lausanne framework would consider even the agreement described here a “bad deal” and will call on Congress to reject it or the next president to repeal it. But while true that it could always be better—which is true, of course, for every diplomatic agreement ever reached—letting the perfect be the enemy of the good would be a historic mistake.

Israel

Retired British colonel Richard Kemp attacks the UN report on Gaza:

As a British officer who had more than his share of fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans, it pains me greatly to see words and actions from the United Nations that can only provoke further violence and loss of life. The United Nations Human Rights Council report on last summer’s conflict in Gaza, prepared by Judge Mary McGowan Davis, and published on Monday, will do just that.

Palestinian activist and commentator Bassem Eid presents the Palestinian case against BDS:

BDS spokespeople justify calling for boycotts that will result in increased economic hardships for the Palestinians by asserting that Palestinians are willing to suffer such deprivations in order to achieve their freedom. It goes without saying that they themselves live in comfortable circumstances elsewhere in the world and will not suffer any such hardship. It would seem, in fact, that the BDS movement in its determination to oppose Israel is prepared to fight to the last drop of Palestinian blood. As a Palestinian who actually lives in East Jerusalem and hopes to build a better life for his family and his community, this is the kind of “pro-Palestinian activism” we could well do without. For our own sake, we need to reconcile with our Israeli neighbors, not reject and revile them.

Middle East

Professor Robert Farley engages in a thought experiment and tries to imagine what the world would look like had America not invaded Iraq:

The enduring cost of the Iraq invasion comes in the form of the thousands of dead Americans, and hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis. Technology shortfalls driven by the war will smooth out over time; the war didn’t cause the U.S. to “miss out” on any critical technological opportunities, instead simply delaying them. The biggest change likely comes in a reassertion of the traditional reticence of the American public towards foreign military intervention, a reticence that waned after the fall of the Soviet Union, but has again become a major factor in the making of American foreign policy.  And if this reticence limits America’s strategic flexibility to make horrifically tragic mistakes, then some good can come out of the Iraq War.

Mohamed Fahy, former head of Al Jazeera’s Egypt bureau, lashes out against the news network’s promotion of its extremist political agenda:

The network’s slogan “The Opinion and the Other Opinion” represents a mirage as the coverage fails to give voice to Qatar’s opposition, which calls for the right to protest and form political parties and labor unions. More than ever, the region needs independent voices and reporting to make sense of the forces of change and the possibilities for a better, more peaceful future. Al Jazeera had that potential. Sadly its leadership has instead manipulated the truth and has revealed itself as a mouthpiece for extremism.

Jewish World

Leon Wieseltier believes that although American Jews are thriving, American Jewishness is nowhere near where it should be:

Everybody, in sum, appropriates only what suits them, what tickles them, what affirms them, without any sense of obligation toward the totality of our resources, without any appetite for the work that would be required by a more comprehensive fidelity, without any sensation of responsibility for the legacies of Jews who are not like themselves. These ardent but truncated commitments amount to a new manner of sectarianism. The only Jewish thing that every American Jew knows about is politics.

Walter Laquer writes about anti-Semitism and Putin’s new vision for Russia:

Vladimir Putin’s steely nationalist rule has raised fears in the West of a return to Soviet-style dictatorship in Russia. But what many outsiders fail to understand is that the country is still in a period of ideological transition, with a new national idea gradually emerging from the Marxism-Leninism of old. Among the more noteworthy aspects of this new “Russian idea” is the explanation it provides for the upheavals of the 20th century and the country’s perceived current decline. Unfortunately, as is often the case with such overarching narratives, Jews play a disproportionately significant role.

Sunday Reads: Demand more from Iran, The Palestinian case against BDS, Jews in Putin’s new Russia Read More »

The Iran Nuclear Negotiations – Why I Am Ambivalent!

Much is at stake as the June 30 deadline approaches for the P5+1 nations and Iran to conclude nuclear weapons negotiations, and as Tuesday approaches I am uncomfortably ambivalent. Here are my reasons why.

The Iranian leadership, without question, is a tough, stubborn, brutal, dishonest, and ideologically driven group that seeks hegemony over the entirety of the Middle East, the acquisition of a nuclear bomb being but one element important in its strategy of intimidation and domination of the region.

The economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the P5+1 nations to force it to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program have been effective in at least bringing the Iranian leadership to the negotiating table as it seeks relief from the economic stranglehold in which it finds itself.

Both sides have much to lose if an agreement does not emerge from these talks, but I do not believe that time is on the west’s side. If no agreement can be reached, even with an extension of the talks by a few days or weeks, the P5+1 coalition could unravel given Russia’s and China’s fading-away act.

The alternative to an agreement is dire whether it be Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon or a western military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that sparks a wider war.

Western experts believe that should the US and its coalition partners initiate a military strike to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, not only would complete destruction be impossible, but military action won’t make a substantial difference. Iran’s current break-out time to produce a bomb of a few months would be delayed only two to four years, and then we’ll find ourselves back where we are now.

The military option is most probably not a real possibility anyway given the P5+1’s war weariness and reluctance to open another theater of violence in the Middle East.

That being said, let’s imagine for a moment the consequences of a military strike on Iran, should it occur.

Both Hezbollah and Hamas (Iranian proxies) could well join together in a coordinated counter-attack on the Jewish state. It is estimated that there are 100,000 Iranian supplied Hezbollah missiles sitting in launchers on the Lebanese border with far greater navigational accuracy than anything Hamas has had, and they are all pointed at Israel with the capacity to strike Kiryat Shemona, Haifa, Tiberius, Jaffa, Tel Aviv, Petach Tikvah, Holon, Ashkelon, Ashdod, Ariel and all  the major contested settlements, as well as cities and towns leading up to and including Jerusalem. Though Israel’s Iron Dome would intersect and destroy many incoming missiles, many other missiles will find their mark and kill hundreds or thousands of Israelis. Israel would bomb the daylights out of southern Lebanon with a likely ground invasion, and many innocent Lebanese and Israeli soldiers would be killed.

Hezbollah’s tunnel system in the north is said to be far more extensive than anything Hamas built in the south, and we could expect an invasion into Israel itself with deadly results.

And so, a war involving Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas can be expected to be more destructive and costly than anything Israel has experienced before.

 

Contemplating a scenario like this with a full Israeli military response is a nightmare of epic proportions. Yet, the bottom line in negotiations has to be that there can be no agreement that directly or indirectly recognizes Iran moving towards nuclear military capability.

One has to consider whether some kind of P5+1 control over Iranian nuclear ambitions is better than no control at all, and that some agreement that achieves many of the goals of the western powers is better than no deal.

All this is why I find myself ambivalent about what is the right course should negotiations fail. On the one hand, it is almost always a mistake to allow our actions to be influenced inordinately by our fears. Yet on the other, our leaders are going to have to choose what the better course is between two bad choices – all-out war or a partial agreement.

In an effort to clarify the important issues involved, a document called “Public Statement on U.S. Policy toward the Iran Nuclear Negotiations” was recently published under the auspices of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The group assembled to discuss the Iran nuclear issue that produced this document included an impressive non-partisan group of American military, security, diplomatic, nuclear arms, and Middle East experts. The names of participants are listed. The 4-page document is worth reading and can be accessed here:

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/StatementWeb2.pdf

The politics driving the right and the left, unfortunately, have obfuscated many of the most important issues at stake. Most of us cannot claim to understand the physics of nuclear technology and weaponry and so we have to rely on the experts, and some of them disagree with each other. 

For now, we will have to wait and see what transpires this week between the two parties and, if there is an extension of the talks, what will be the final outcome?

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Western officials suggest Iran tries to wiggle out of nuclear pledges

Iran is backtracking from an interim nuclear agreement with world powers three months ago, Western officials suggested on Sunday, as U.S. and Iranian officials said talks on a final accord would likely run past a June 30 deadline.

Securing an historic agreement would end a more than 12-year nuclear standoff between Iran and the West and open the door to suspending sanctions that have crippled Tehran's economy. It could also help ease the diplomatic isolation for an Iran that has become increasingly assertive across the region.

Highlighting how much work remains in the nuclear negotiations, British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond said on arrival in Vienna that major challenges remained, including on the parameters already agreed in April in Lausanne, Switzerland.

“There are a number of different areas where we still have major differences of interpretation in detailing what was agreed in Lausanne,” Hammond told reporters.

“There is going to have to be some give or take if we are to get this done in the next few days,” he said. “No deal is better than a bad deal.”

Other Western officials echoed Hammond's remarks, saying some of the backtracking involved the mechanics of monitoring Iranian compliance with proposed limits on nuclear activities.

“It feels like we haven’t advanced on the technical issues and even gone back on some,” a Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

Another Western official traced the apparent backtracking to a speech by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week, in which he ruled out freezing sensitive nuclear work in the country for a long time.

“His speech last week seems aimed at constraining (Iranian negotiators') flexibility in the last stretch of the talks, as he has done at a number of key intervals over the last two years,” a Western diplomat told Reuters, citing an internal government intelligence assessment of Khamenei's speech.

But he added that Khamenei's tendency to issue vague directives “could leave the negotiators with some limited room to play with and to find creative solutions that could help wrap up the diplomatic process.”

The main differences are on the pace and timing of sanctions relief for Iran and on the nature of monitoring mechanisms to ensure Tehran does not cheat on any agreement.

U.S. and European negotiators also want to ensure there is a mechanism for restoring sanctions if Tehran fails to meet its commitments under any future accord.

ZARIF HEADS HOME FOR CONSULTATIONS

Germany's foreign minister told reporters that Iran had promised to stick to the commitments it made in April.

“We were told that Iran stands by the (Lausanne) parameters and that's what we will of course measure the Iranian side against,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters.

Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi said Iran was committed to the Lausanne agreement.

“If the other party also remains committed to the Lausanne agreement and avoids having excessive demands, a final deal is within reach,” Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted Salehi as saying on Sunday.

A U.S. official, who spoke to reporters on condition of

anonymity, said Washington was not bothered by Zarif's plan to return to Tehran overnight, saying it was always expected that ministers would come and go from Vienna as the talks heated up.

“Zarif told the Secretary (of State John Kerry) yesterday that he would be returning to Iran for a very short visit,” a senior U.S. official said. Iranian media said Zarif would return on Monday.

An Iranian official told Reuters that Zarif would “consult with the leadership” over the talks in Vienna.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who arrived in Vienna on Saturday, left for New York on Sunday and was expected to return soon.

Kerry and Zarif have met repeatedly over the last two days. Kerry also met on Sunday with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Britain in Vienna, along with European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini. Deputy ministers from Russia and China also joined.

Zarif was also holding bilateral meetings with other members of the six-nation group.

The United States, Israel and some Western nations fear that Iran has been trying to develop a nuclear weapons capability, but Tehran says its program is for peaceful purposes only.

In November, the seven nations involved in the talks set a late March deadline for a framework agreement, which they ultimately reached on April 2, and a June 30 deadline for a comprehensive deal.

China's Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong was more upbeat about the state of the negotiations, saying that Iran and the six were “only steps away from the finish line of the marathon of Iran nuclear talks.” However, he added that there were still “a number of very hard issues” to be resolved.

Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the biggest critics of the U.S. policy of engaging with Iran, said too many concessions were being made to Tehran.

“We see before our very eyes a stark retreat from the red lines that the world powers set themselves only recently, and publicly,” said Netanyahu, whose country is generally believed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal.

“There is no reason to hasten into signing this bad deal, which is getting worse by the day.”

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