How Strong Are the Jews?

How can we measure the influence of the pro-Israel community in American politics?

The movement is strong enough to defeat avowed Israel-haters like Representatives Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.).

It is savvy enough to avoid attempting to take on other antagonists – just as belligerent but not as vulnerable – such as Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib.

But it is sufficiently limited to be unable to protect Josh Shapiro from the anti-Zionists who prevented the Pennsylvania governor from being named as Kamala Harris’ running mate.

To be fair, the most active and political voices on the national political landscape –  AIPAC and its affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project, played no public role in Harris’ selection of a vice presidential nominee. But it was still instructive that on the same day that Bush, one of Israel’s harshest critics in Congress, was defeated by an opponent who had received heavy funding from pro-Israel supporters, Shapiro was passed over for a spot on the ticket. 

Shapiro holds an astronomical 61% approval rating in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important state on the electoral map. But he deviates from Democratic orthodoxy on issues that are high priorities for influential party interests. Shapiro supports school vouchers and fracking, enraging teachers’ unions and environmentalists. But the strongest and angriest criticism he faced was from those who oppose his strong support for Israel in the war in Gaza. 

Shapiro was certainly not the only contender for the vice presidential nomination to take a strong pro-Israel position since the war started last year. But he is the only one of the three finalists who is Jewish. While Trump’s criticisms of Harris as antisemitic would be farcical if not so offensive, it’s more than plausible for her and her advisors to have decided that an internal battle with anti-Israel progressives would not be helpful in their efforts to unite the party behind her candidacy.

The success that anti-Zionist activists had in thwarting Shapiro’s nomination underscores the scope of the challenge that AIPAC and other pro-Israel forces have faced on a political landscape that has dramatically changed since the start of the Gaza crisis last October. While there are significant divisions on Israel and the Middle East among Republicans, the divide in the Democratic Party between the progressive and the establishment wings of the Democratic Party has created an environment in which the fight to elect and protect Israel’s defenders in Congress has become increasingly more difficult.

The success that anti-Zionist activists had in thwarting Shapiro’s nomination underscores the scope of the challenge that AIPAC and other pro-Israel forces have faced on a political landscape that has dramatically changed since the start of the Gaza crisis last October.

The rapid growth of anti-Israel sentiment among many traditional Democratic constituencies has forced AIPAC and their allies into the unaccustomed position of fighting on what has long been friendly political turf. While they have also engaged successfully in a small number of Republican primaries, the main public and spending focus has been on seats where so-called Squad members either hold or are challenging establishment Democrats for what should be safe seats. 

By prioritizing races where Squad members are vulnerable for domestic policy and/or personal reasons, pro-Israel strategists developed messaging that avoids the Middle East altogether. This is smart tactical thinking, but it is also a discouraging acknowledgment that a frontal pro-Israel message is often no longer the best way of winning an election.

Bowman and Bush had profound weaknesses that could have put their reelections at risk. Omar and Tlaib have survived similar challenges in the past and have considerably strengthened their political standings in their own districts. This type of political triage is necessary but also frustrating for the most impatient among us who are still learning the new realities that shape our politics. Those same political realities helped keep Shapiro off the ticket and guided pro-Israel leaders to recognize that this was not a fight in which victory could be assured. 

The next test will take place at the Democratic convention in Chicago, when thousands of delegates and even larger numbers of activists and protesters on both sides will gather over the next several days. We’re about to have a much better sense of how well-prepared we are for this confrontation as it moves into its next stage.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.