We all know the cliches.
The only poll that matters is on Election Day. Polls are just a snapshot in time. People change their minds when they learn new information, so polls can always change.
All of these familiar bromides are true, but they also represent a convenient way for committed partisans — in both parties and on all issues — to deny political reality when it is inconvenient or does not reflect our own wishes. The majority of American Jews are supporters of both Joe Biden and of Israel, which means that many members of our community are currently struggling to digest, diminish or deny recent polls that show both the U.S. president and the Jewish state losing ground with American voters.
A new round of national surveys has been released in recent days, showing Biden continuing to run behind Donald Trump and demonstrating that the voters’ faith in the president on the economy, immigration and other key issues is decidedly lacking. Perhaps the biggest concern for the president’s reelection team has been their candidate’s difficulty in securing the Democratic base, especially young people, Black and Latino voters and other progressives. The voters who should be most enthusiastic in support of their nominee are aggressively diffident toward him, and their impatience with his progress on issues like climate change, police reform and voting protections has been exacerbated by their overwhelming opposition to his approach in the Middle East and his support for Israel in the Gaza War.
As the war continues, Israel has also struggled in its efforts to retain American popular support. A Wall Street Journal poll released over the weekend (https://www.wsj.com/politics/u-s-voter-sympathy-for-palestinians-grows-as-israel-war-drags-on-wsj-poll-finds-e515aab9) demonstrates the challenge: more than 40% of voters in this country now believe that Israel has “gone too far” in its response to the Hamas terrorist attacks, more than doubling the 19% who think the Israelis have not gone far enough. (Twenty-four percent say the response has been about right.)
Public opinion polls are most reliable when we look not just at the raw numbers, but rather at the up or down trajectory as time passes. For example, a candidate with 52% support may or may not be ahead of their opponent, but if trends from previous polls shows that level of support rising, we can assume that their candidacy is heading in the right direction. Conversely, if that same candidate was at 60% in earlier polling, things are clearly headed in the wrong direction.
When the Wall Street Journal took the same poll in December, 26% of Americans said that the U.S. was doing too little to help the Palestinians. By last week, that number had risen to 33%. Similarly, the most recent Journal poll showed that 30% of respondents thought the U.S. was doing too much to help the Israeli people. Two months earlier, only 22% answered the same question affirmatively. A several point shift such as this should be a matter of concern to us, but if these tendencies continue in this direction, our worries should be much greater.
Neither the polling on Biden or Israel should be taken with absolute faith by supporters of either. Polls do change. But they don’t change by themselves. They change when a determined group of advocates for a candidate or cause decide to take on that challenge – and when they are willing to see the world as it is rather than as they hope it will be.
It’s time to broaden our Israel outreach to communicate with those who don’t already agree with us — a much less pleasant task, but a much more productive one.
Biden might beat Trump this fall, but he will need to motivate young people, minority voters and other progressives to turn out for him. Israel too, can win back these same voters, but it will not happen easily or quickly. Most of these audiences have only been hearing one side of the argument for many years, because most of us in the pro-Israel community have been content to talk only to each other. It’s time to broaden our outreach to communicate with those who don’t already agree with us — a much less pleasant task, but a much more productive one.
Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.
