Showdown in Miami Beach

If you’re searching for clues as to what’s in store next Election Day, you could do worse than to start your search in Miami Beach. First of all, the weather is gorgeous. Secondly, that’s where Elaine Bloom lives, and the way things are looking, as Elaine Bloom goes, so goes the nation.

A Bronx-born Jewish grandmother, Bloom has been a Miami Beach fixture almost from the moment she arrived in 1962. She’s been a radio talk-show host, regional president of the National Council of Jewish Women and a top UJA activist. She recently stepped down after years as chief Florida fundraiser for Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.

In her spare time she’s one of the most powerful and longest-serving Democrats in the Florida state legislature. And now she’s running for Congress. She says she intends to be “the first kosher woman in the House.”

Bloom is trying to unseat another local fixture, 10-term veteran GOP Rep. E. Clay Shaw, Jr. of Ft. Lauderdale. A member of the House Republican leadership, he first entered Congress in 1980 from a district that was largely WASP and strongly Republican. Today, thanks to a 1992 redistricting, he represents a narrow, 90-mile strip of shoreline, stretching from Miami Beach to just north of Palm Beach, that’s heavily Democratic and one of the most Jewish districts in the country. The district lines were actually drawn to benefit a Jewish Democrat, but Shaw clawed his way to victory and has held on ever since.

Bloom is Shaw’s first serious challenger since the redistricting. She’s raised pots of money — over $725,000 in the last seven months. Between that, the district’s makeup and her own record on issues like health care, educational standards and gun control, she figures she’s got a pretty good shot. “I’m running against an incumbent who doesn’t represent the majority of citizens in this district,” she says flatly.

That 1992 redistricting is actually a sore point with Bloom, even though it’s helping her now. Statewide, she says, the new lines seriously undermined Jewish political clout. The legislature had set out to boost minority representation by creating new black-majority districts. In the process, they “broke up enclaves that were conducive to Jewish representation.” The result: “We have fewer Jewish legislators today than when I first came to the legislature in 1974” — despite a boom in Florida’s Jewish population.

Another result, by no coincidence, was the 1996 Republican takeover of the legislature.

This was a little-noticed pattern across the country in 1992. Republican lawmakers joined forces with black Democrats nationwide after the 1990 Census to design new black-majority districts, incidentally spinning off new Republican districts as well. The strategy was to break up Democratic districts that straddled black neighborhoods and adjacent white suburbs — districts often held, it so happened, by Jews. In each case the black neighborhoods were bunched together into one solidly black district, leaving several lily-white suburban districts just tailor-made for GOP victories.

National Democratic strategists began warning in 1991 that the scheme would reduce the 32-member Jewish House caucus by up to one-third after the 1994 election, and could cause a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives. Both predictions came true precisely.

This year, for the first time, Democrats think they have a realistic chance to take the House back. With Republicans in a narrow 222-213 majority, Democrats need to shift only five seats to wrest control.

Theoretically, all 435 House seats are up for grabs. For that matter, so is one-third of the 100-seat Senate, not to mention the White House. Realistically, though, Democratic chances of regaining the Senate are slim. A Democratic White House is also starting to look like a long shot, given the unshakable popularity and fundraising prowess of George W. Bush. That raises the stakes in the House.

Most analysts consider about 40 House seats genuinely competitive. Just over half are Republican seats that could turn Democratic. In real terms, then, Democratic hopes rest on 20 or so upstart challengers around the country.

At least five of those challengers are Jews.

Three are in Southern California, facing Republican incumbents considered vulnerable. Two-term GOP Rep. James Rogan of Pasadena, one of last year’s House impeachment managers, faces a well-financed challenge from State Sen. Adam Schiff. Freshman GOP Rep. Steve Kuykendall of Palos Verdes faces former Rep. Jane Harman, who retired from the House to mount a failed bid for governor and now wants her seat back. The third is moderate three-term GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray of suburban San Diego, who faces Assemblywoman Susan Davis.

Another strong Jewish challenge comes in a district with a Republican incumbent who’s retiring from the House, longtime GOP Rep. John Porter of suburban Chicago. His decision to quit after losing a committee chairmanship has touched off a 12-way free-for-all for the Republican nomination. The Democratic nomination appears sewn up by respected State Rep. Lauren Beth Gash.

Then there’s Elaine Bloom, who’s in a class by herself. Her seniority in state politics, name recognition and fundraising muscle make her a formidable challenger. The mismatch between incumbent Shaw and his district gives Bloom an edge. Her deep Jewish involvement makes her a powerful symbol of what’s at stake.

But Shaw has a few weapons of his own. Despite his ties to the unpopular House Republican leadership, he’s largely managed to avoid being tarred as an ideological conservative. Most important, he chairs the House subcommittee on Social Security, a valuable perch in a district with more retirees than any other nationwide. In the end, most observers call the match a tossup, with a slight edge to Shaw.

That’s the dilemma Democrats face next fall. Incumbency is a weapon that trumps most everything else. And yet, if a feisty challenger like Elaine Bloom can’t defeat a vulnerable incumbent like Clay Shaw in a liberal district like the South Florida coast, it’s hard to see where the Democrats’ upset will come from.

“She’s in a tough race,” says Miami Herald opinion-page editor Tom Fiedler. “She’s running against a very popular Republican incumbent. But a lot of factors work in her favor. Not least is the fact that this district has one of the highest concentrations of Jews in the country. It’s also the most Democratic-performing district in the country with a Republican in Congress. This could be a real surprise for the Republicans.”

J.J. Goldberg writes a weekly column for The Jewish Journal