The Jews of America, generally speaking, lost this election, or so they currently think. Most of them voted for the losing candidate, a vast majority of them view the winning candidate negatively. ” target=”_blank”>an Election Day tradition – lets us see some of the nuances related to the Jewish vote. It is an interesting poll, and here is some of what you can find in it other than the headline (70% of Jews voted for Clinton).
1.
Is 70% for her high or low? On the one hand, it is as high as Obama got in 2012. On the other hand, it is lower than 2008 Obama (74%), 2004 Kerry (74%), 2000 Gore (79%), 1996 Clinton (78%), 1992 Clinton (80%). It is higher than 1988 Dukakis (64%).
But is that a satisfactory result from a Democratic viewpoint? I’d say no – it isn’t. Not when Donald Trump was on the ticket. Trump did not stir the expected scare among Jewish voters. The share of the Democratic vote among Jews continues the slow yet steady decline from the early Nineties to today: 80%, 78%, 79%, 74%, 74%, 70%, 70%.
2.
Not all Jews vote the same way. 25% of them voted for Trump. Who are these 25%? Many of them are Orthodox, whose vote was 56% for Clinton, 39% for Trump. But the Orthodox are a relatively small group – just 10% or so of the Jewish population. So there must have been others who also voted for Trump, and here they are: 21% of Reform, 25% of Conservative, 26% of “just Jewish”. So much for the progressive tendencies of all progressive Jews. One in four voted for Trump – whom the other three find to be horrible.
3.
Of those who voted for Trump (or for any candidate other than Clinton), only a handful considered voting for Clinton at any point in the race. That is to say: it was probably impossible to sway them even if more effort had been invested. The opposite is also true: Clinton voters did not consider Trump. The partisan nature of the race is evident as one looks at these numbers. These are two camps who live – politically speaking – in their separate silos and vote instinctively for the candidate of their choosing, not two groups of people who pondered the issues, looked into the advantages and disadvantages of the two competing candidates and made a well thought through decision.
4.
Those who follow American elections with the intention of understanding – among other things – the Jewish vote were somewhat frustrated during the primary season. We know that many Jews vote in Democratic primaries, but this year there were very few places in which the Jewish vote appeared on the radar screen in ways that could teach us which of the candidates Jews supported.
Gerstein’s poll doesn’t fully fill that void – it is not an exit poll conducted when the vote is cast, but rather a poll asking people how they voted many months ago. We know from many studies that people tend to be forgetful about such things. Still, Gerstein asked the Jewish voters who bothered with the primaries whom did they vote for. 62% of all Jews voted in the Democratic primaries, and of these Jews, 66% say they supported Clinton and 33% say they supported Senator Bernie Sanders.
Who voted for Sanders? You will not be surprised: 47% of all Jews under 30 who voted in the primaries. 49% of those who listed the environment as one of the two most important issues that determine their vote. 91% of those who ended up voting for independent candidates (Johnson and Stein). 48% of the unaffiliated Jews (who voted in the Democratic primaries).
5.
Israel was one of the top two issues for just 9% of all Jewish voters (8% to Florida voters). That is not a surprise – the myth of Jews-vote-on-Israel was debunked long ago, even if, in some quarters, it still sticks.
It is still interesting to see which voters rank Israel higher than others on the agenda.
More Trump voters prioritize Israel – 14% to Clinton’s 7%. Orthodox (19%) and Conservative (16%) more than Reform (6%) and unaffiliated (5%) Jews. Younger men and women (12%, 10%) more than older men and women (7%, 8%) (younger is under 40 years old). Those opposing the Iran nuclear deal (13%) more than those supporting it (6%).
Sadly, it all fits. The more hawkish and religiously engaged is the Jew, the more Israel plays a role in his thinking about the election.
6.
Support for the Iran deal is high among American Jews, at least when the question presented to them is as follows: “Do you support or oppose the agreement that the United States and other countries made last year to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran dismantling its nuclear weapons program and allowing international inspectors to monitor Iran's facilities?” 63% support the deal.
The Iran deal is a done deal, for now. This is evident from the fact that even those opposing it did not prioritize it as they went to the polls. Only 2% of Jews – supporting or opposing the deal – considered Iran one of the top two issues in their consideration of their vote.
I found it curious that most Orthodox Jews also supported the deal. In fact, the percentage of Orthodox Jews opposing the deal is not much higher in this poll than the percentage found in other Jewish streams. 42% for the Orthodox, 37% and 36% for Conservative and Reform. The difference, though, is in the number of Jews who “strongly oppose” the deal. 32% of Orthodox, to 20% and 15% of Conservative and Reform.
7.
Many Jews strongly support the idea that President Obama will address the issue of the two-state solution in “a major speech” before leaving office. This might have been important before Election Day – I’m not even sure about that – but now it isn’t. Obama can make speeches as much as he wants to, it is Donald Trump who will determine the policy of the US in the coming years.
62% of Jews in America also say that the US should support or abstain is the UN Security Council votes on a “resolution that calls on Israel to stop building Israeli settlements in the West Bank”. Three comments:
A. Abstaining is exactly like supporting the vote. What’s needed is a veto.
B. This is one question that makes an Israeli pleased with the Trump revolution.
C. The Security Council vote idea never took off. I don’t think the Obama administration wants it (though J Street might want it).
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