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10 Election comments: American embassy, get ready to move to Jerusalem

[additional-authors]
November 9, 2016

1.

I spent Election Night as a pundit on Israel’s most watched TV channel (Channel 2 News). It was wonderful, and also eye opening. Donald Trump is the new American President – he was elected by Americans, to govern America. And yet, the world seems highly engaged in the election that just ended.

Of course, the world is always interested in American elections. The US President is a political figure like no other – leader of the free world, leader of the most powerful empire etc. But with Trump we see something beyond that. Something that we also saw when Barack Obama was elected President, but not when Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, or Nixon were elected. The world is not just watching. The world – I can attest for Israel – is emotionally engaged. Trump, for good and bad, made this election special for Americans and non-Americans. He made it notable.

2.

The world – again, Israel is one example, and not the primary example – is shocked by the decision Americans made yesterday. It is not the first time the world is shocked by such a decision, and probably not the last time. Subconsciously, ignoring world sentiments was probably one of the reasons Trump was elected. Americans wanted to shake Washington, and also wanted to shake world politics, by making a seemly outrageous decision.

3.

” target=”_blank”>that includes Rudi Giuliani and Newt Gingrich could be one with which Israel could live happily ever after – at least for a while.

6.

Imagine that: after so many years and so many terms, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, for the first time, will not have to face a Democratic administration that dislikes him. When he was first elected, it was an upset not unlike the Trump upset of yesterday (Netanyahu defeated Shimon Peres in 1996) – and that upset was quite upsetting for the Bill Clinton administration. In 1999, the Clintons and their crew assisted Ehud Barak in his quest to defeat Netanyahu. From 2009, Netanyahu has been a Prime Minister haunted by Barack Obama. I do not think he wished for a Trump – but I would not blame him if he is cautiously joyful about the stunning result of the US election.

7.

The Obama legacy? I don’t think there will be much of an Obama legacy of much significance – except for his historic achievement, of great significance, of being the first non-white American President. Oh – and Trump. Donald Trump is an Obama legacy. Bush begot Obama, Obama begot Trump.

And as for Obama’s Middle East legacy: some of it cannot be promptly undone. The Iran deal stands – for now. The war in Syria continues – for now. Russian involvement is a given – and Trump doesn’t seem to be bothered by it. On the other hand: It is hard to imagine Trump putting a lot of pressure on Israel to settle the Palestinian issue. And that is good. It might make the Palestinians finally climb off the tree of international de-legitimization of Israel. It might make them realize that talking to Israel and accepting the reality of it is the only way for them to move forward (or, they can still threaten to sue Britain for the Balfour Declaration).  

8.

Suddenly, the Orthodox Jewish community – the right-wing Orthodox community – seems much more influential than it seemed two days ago, when everybody thought Clinton was winning. This could be a problem for Israel, which will have to deal with American Jewish support that is more hawkish than its own government.

9.

Remember that AIPAC was criticized by some for letting Donald Trump speak at its policy conference? Do you realize how foolish such criticism seems in retrospect?

Many things seem questionable in retrospect. For example, Israel’s decision to take the MOU deal that was offered to it by the Obama administration. And of course, this is not a bad deal – it is good. But it is less than what Israel wanted, and it was accepted and concluded based on the assumption that Hillary Clinton will probably be the next president of the United States. Would Israel have decided differently had it known the next administration is a Trump administration supported by a Republican Congress? That’s a good question, and the answer to it is not clear. Trump was not elected to spend American funds on foreign aid, and a Trump administration could have proved less generous – not more so – had the deal waited for his decision. Or maybe he would have been more generous. Who knows.

10.

I’ve been interviewed today by many news agencies from around the world, and all of them ask me if Trump is truly going to move the American embassy to Jerusalem. My answer – surprisingly – is yes. That is, I think it is probable that he will. Here is why:

Moving the embassy is essentially a symbolic move. It does not require much preparation other than making the necessary technical arrangements. On the other hand, it is highly visible, and it will send a clear message to the world that the Trump administration indeed intends to shake things up and abandon outdated policies. Of course, the Palestinians and many Arab states are not going to agree with it. All the more reason to act: Trump was not elected because Americans wanted a President more attuned to the concerns of Arab leaders.

Think about that: President George W. Bush made the promise as a candidate but did not act on it. Donald J. Trump made the promise and is coming to Israel to inaugurate a new embassy in Jerusalem. Sounds out of character? I think it sounds as Trumpish as it gets.

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