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Has Violence Increased or Decreased in the World?

[additional-authors]
August 15, 2014

According to a new study in the journal Pediatrics, the violence in PG-13 films has tripled since 1985 and PG-13 films have more violence than R-rated films. Furthermore, we are witnessing an increase of bullying in professional sports and of school bullying. The fact that the 20th century has been reported to be the most violent century in human history should inspire us all toward thoughtful action.

Judaism stresses that we further peace whenever possible.

Hillel would say: Be of the disciples of Aaron—a lover of peace, a pursuer of peace, one who loves the creatures and draws them close to Torah (Pirkei Avot 1:12).

This message is so intrinsic to Judaism that the Rabbis teach that peace (“Shalom”) is a name of G-d.

To be sure, some have suggested that violence is on the decline.  According to data compiled by Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker, a smaller percentage of people die today in battle than ever before in human history. He notes that about 1.2 million deaths are referenced in the Bible. Then he states that the percentage of people killed in battle today is less than one-thousandth of what it was before the era of nation states, from 500 per 100,000 population then to about 1 person per 300,000 today. As for genocide, today the rate has gone down 1,400 times from its most recent height during World War II. Professor Andrew Mack of Simon Fraser University in Canada has documented a similar trend. His research has found that although the number of wars has increased, the number of people killed in these wars declined by about 90 percent over the past 60 years.

Consider, for example, a famous ancient war: Julius Caesar’s conquest of Gaul. Largely a move by Caesar to gain political power in Rome, when the Gauls resisted his efforts to engage in open battle, Caesar retaliated by annihilating a city of nearly 40,000 people. When he finally cornered the Gauls, he deliberately starved the women and children who tried to pass out of the war zone, and after his victory, he murdered one million and sold another million into slavery. We should remember that although Caesar was an extraordinarily cunning political strategist, he was not regarded as especially cruel for his time, and succeeding Roman and other rulers took the title of “Caesar” (including the Russian word tsar and German word Kaiser) into the 20th century.

In addition to war, Professor Pinker maintains that violent crime is also declining. Murder in Europe is now about 1 percent of its murder rate in the 14th and 15th centuries. In the United States, a much more violent society, rape has declined 80 percent in the past 40 years. The domestic murder rate of wives by husbands, while receiving more media attention, has actually declined by nearly half in the past four decades as well. In addition, some significant past crimes, such as lynching, have virtually disappeared from the public consciousness.

Professor Pinker credited a more educated populace and an increase in the number of democratic states for much of this trend. One might also add the end of the Cold War, which reduced the number of client states that would engage in warfare with weapons obtained by the superpowers.

In terms of soldiers, Pinker’s theory is supported by many examples. In America, about 620,000 soldiers died during the Civil War (nearly half of all American war dead in its history), at a time that the United States had a population of about 31 million. Thus, nearly 2 percent of Americans were killed in that war. Similarly, while England suffered heavy losses during World War I, its rate of death was far less than during its own Civil War in the mid-17th century.

However, even Professor Pinker will acknowledge a recent increase in religious-based wars. Violent abuse of minority religious groups occurred in 24 percent of countries in 2007, 38 percent in 2011, and 47 percent in 2012. While Muslim violence is most prevalent, other religions have been involved, such as in Sri Lanka in 2012, where Buddhist monks participated in attacks on Muslim and Christian religious sites. Thus, our observation of an explosion of violence in the Middle East, such as the current crisis where ISIS Islamic militants want to murder tens of thousands of Yazidis, an ethnic and religious Christian minority in Iraq, because they will not convert to Islam, is a disturbing sign of an alarming trend.

While Professors Pinker and Marcus make an interesting academic case, it cannot be denied that much of the 20th century does not fit comfortably in this scenario. Europe was traumatized by the 17 million who died in World War I after nearly a century of relative peace on the continent (the Napoleonic wars having ended in 1814, and much of the subsequent violence transferred to colonial possessions), but a generation later, World War II, cost approximately 60-70 million lives, with civilian deaths outnumbering soldier deaths by nearly three to one. While World War I featured artillery and the machine gun, World War II employed deadlier armaments and tactics, including tanks and a more deadly use of aircraft. In addition to the unspeakable horror of the Holocaust, the war featured coordinated armor and air offensives (blitzkrieg), the bombing and firebombing of cities, and the only use of nuclear weapons in wartime. One can argue that if the time range is expanded slightly, the decreased violence thesis is cohesively less compelling.

Perhaps there is an element of perception involved. Most of us remember the Columbine or the Newtown school massacres, but overall schools are safer than they were twenty years ago. Similarly, many Americans are cognizant of terrorism, even though statistics show that over the past five years, the chances of an American dying in a terrorist attack is 1 in 20 million. Even though these are rare occurrences, the pall of violence hangs over our society, as more deadly weapons present a potential threat. Consider, for example, that when John Wilkes Booth assassinated President Abraham Lincoln in April 1865, he used a derringer, a small single-round pistol that fired a single shell. In contrast, in January 2011 an assassin killed six and wounded fourteen (including Representative Gabby Giffords) with a pistol that had a 31-round extended magazine.

The origins of violence are not clear. Some biologists suggest it is a genetically predictable trait. Development psychologists highlight early childhood. Sociologists point to cultural and societal conditioning. Some blame “secularism,” “feminism,” parenting, extremism, religion, television, video games, you name it.

Perhaps a final lesson is that we should not become inured to images of violence. Video games, “action” movies, and other simulated acts of violence should not translate into physical violence or a callous disregard for suffering. We should never descend to the depths of the Roman Coliseum, where the killing of humans and animals became the leading spectator sport.

We must learn from history. We must strive to reduce violence in all its forms. Each of us has to take responsibility for ourselves and our communities. It may be true that we live in an era with low violence relative to human history as many societies have progressed, and that should give us strength to march forward. Yet, we dare not deceive ourselves that we have reached a healthy national or global state. We still have so far to go.

 

Rabbi Dr. Shmuly Yanklowitz is the Executive Director of the Valley Beit Midrash, the Founder & President of Uri L’Tzedek, the Founder and CEO of The Shamayim V’Aretz Institute and the author of five books on Jewish ethics.  Newsweek named Rav Shmuly one of the top 50 rabbis in America.”

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