While the Jews of America are still digesting the meaning of Trump, the Jews (and non-Jews) of Israel are back to business as usual, battling over the fate of a small settlement, Amona, but really about the rule of law and legislative power and settler influence. Amona is not very important in and of itself – it is a test case. The settlers believe that if Amona falls, other settlements will also fall. The High Court – ” target=”_blank”>warned that the proposed legislation is unconstitutional and will not stand. Yet the proponents of the law did not budge. Earlier this week, Education Minister Naftali Bennet of the Jewish Home Party overcame the resistance of the PM and convinced the government ” target=”_blank”>US condemnation of the legislative move, and settler expectation of change when a new administration settles in. In fact, one of the main reason for the settlers’ wish of postponement is their belief that once a Trump administration settles in, the US demand for an evacuation will vanish, and with it Netanyahu’s chief argument as to why Israel cannot afford a further delay.
What is the way forward for Amona? There are at least four scenarios:
1. Legislation does not pass, Amona is evacuated amid some resistance, and the story is over (until another settlement is placed under the same legal microscope).
2. Legislation passes, and the court is asked to review the new law. In such case, the court could strike down the law before the 25th of December and demand evacuation; it could delay evacuation and strike it down after the 25th of December – and then set a new deadline for evacuation; or it could leave the law intact and let the government deal with the consequences – diplomatic downfall, international pressure, etc.
3. Legislation passes and the court is not even asked to review it. Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is trying to convince all opposition forces to refrain from going to court and let the government deal with this hot potato of problematic legislation without having the court to blame for the consequences. I find her proposal worthy of consideration, but find it hard to believe that no organization will appeal.
4. Legislation passes with a caveat: Amona will be evacuated and the new law will apply only to future cases (if not strike down by the court). The settlers currently seem unwilling to consider such compromise (and for good reason: it does not have good chance of withstanding legal scrutiny).
What is the best scenario for Israel? When it comes to the future of settlements, the answer to this question depends on one’s ideology. When it comes to the future of the rule of law, and of the government’s ability to implement its policies, there’s no doubt that option 1 is better than the others.
Ignoring the politics of it all – it should be easy for the Prime Minister to make sure that option 1 is implemented. He can stop the legislation by using a simple technically. He can tell the military and the police to evacuate. He can warn the settlers that any violence against soldiers will be treated harshly.
Ignoring the politics of it all is a missing piece in this government’s toolbox. Netanyahu is having a hard time evacuating Amona for the same reason he has a hard time implementing the Western Wall compromise: he does not see these issues as worthy enough of the political price he would have to pay for them – and one wonders if any issue seems worthy enough to this Prime Minister if he needs to pay a political price to have it resolved.
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